The Great Tillman Debate

[BaltimoreTerp]

Something that has not really been discussed much in this thread is beyond almost anything else this process is what really made the old Oriole way. The bottom line is DH and CT and all of the young guns were given things to be better at when last season ended. Guess what the evidence is DH has made the most progress. It sounds has if the brian trust of the O's are leaning towards rewarding him for that. It is the right thing to do IMO. What all of the other prospects see is results and progress matter. Back in the glory days guys like Boddiker, Davis, Tippy, even palmer talk about how hard it was to actually get to and stick with the club in Baltimore. They knew that it took talent and RESULTS. Guys that lead the international league in statistical categories the previous season were routinely sent back to AAA. This club is real close to being at the point where we will not be wasting service years when the pitcher has not truely mastered what is necessary to get the job done in the ML. Guess what all of the prospects now CT is a true Blue Chipper and they will see that even that guy is being held accountible for the things he can control. Looking back at DT's comments he was upset that Tillman had not improved on what held him back last season, But more importantly, he sounds as if he had lost his composure during his last outing. This was simply more than DT could stand form the sounds of it. Heck those actually at the game have said just that. The pitcher is able to control the pace of the game, even when he does not have his stuff or loses his command for a stretch or even an outing. Maybe we will actually get 5+ years of fully baked proformance out of pitchers instead of a couple right before they are FAs and a bunch of seasons where we see a guy that could be really good if he did this or that better.

Very good points about the Oriole Way. That's what we've been trying to get back too.

[OrioleMagic]

I think he is roughly as valuable (maybe slighly more) than Rodrigo Lopez was when we traded him for Jim Miller and Jason Burch before the 2007 season. You'd probably get 2-3 prospects but nobody in another organziation's top 10.

Well, hopefully MacPhail has a better eye for long shot potential or a guy who is on the outs with his current club... "a la Pie". :rofl:

[LookinUp]

Something that has not really been discussed much in this thread is beyond almost anything else this process is what really made the old Oriole way. The bottom line is DH and CT and all of the young guns were given things to be better at when last season ended. Guess what the evidence is DH has made the most progress. It sounds has if the brian trust of the O's are leaning towards rewarding him for that. It is the right thing to do IMO. What all of the other prospects see is results and progress matter. Back in the glory days guys like Boddiker, Davis, Tippy, even palmer talk about how hard it was to actually get to and stick with the club in Baltimore. They knew that it took talent and RESULTS. Guys that lead the international league in statistical categories the previous season were routinely sent back to AAA. This club is real close to being at the point where we will not be wasting service years when the pitcher has not truely mastered what is necessary to get the job done in the ML. Guess what all of the prospects know CT is a true Blue Chipper and they will see that even that guy is being held accountible for the things he can control. Looking back at DT's comments he was upset that Tillman had not improved on what held him back last season, But more importantly, he sounds as if he had lost his composure during his last outing. This was simply more than DT could stand from the sounds of it. Heck those actually at the game have said just that. The pitcher is able to control the pace of the game, even when he does not have his stuff or loses his command for a stretch or even an outing. Maybe we will actually get 5+ years of fully baked proformance out of pitchers instead of a couple right before they are FAs and a bunch of seasons where we see a guy that could be really good if he did this or that better.

This is a fabulous post. +1

One thing I know I disagree with SG on is whether a player should continue to develop in the majors or minors. Personally, while I love minor league success, I really love the idea of promoting guys who consistently locate down in the zone, to both sides of the plate and with all of their pitches.

I personally think it's much easier for a guy to pitch with a development plan in the minors than it is the majors. I think we focus too much on what the hitters do against the pitcher and not enough about what the pitcher's doing against the hitters. In this sense, the scouting report matters more than even the peripheral stats.

If Tillman reaches his potential, it won't matter what hitters he's facing. He'll still be successful. Now is the time to focus on him becoming a complete pitcher. There's no reason in my mind that he can't do that at AAA. In fact, I'd prefer it.

For DH, as Flosman said, I love that he worked on his game this offseason, has apparently improved and is determined to make himself part of the starting pitching conversation. Kudos to the O's for rewarding the hard work.

[mweb]

It basically says that Tillman was in the rotation but DH's start the other day may have changed that.

That tells me that one start changed their mind.

Along with the rest of ST.

[Sports Guy]

I can see your point, I have seen some SG comments that add value to the discussion, but when one of 8,000 other OH posters (me in this case) pops into a thread started by Frobby that appears to be very interesting... and he starts acting like he knows better than anyone else including the baseball professionals that are paid to make the decisions... and then he insults those with differing opinions, and those of us that have been around for a few years see this recurring trend again and again, it gets old.

If SG were as bright a baseball mind as he thinks he is, Kotchman would be a 3-time All-star instead of being traded more than once and Brandon Wood would have already been the Rookie of the Year.

At some point, ya'd think he would wonder why the Orioles haven't hired him yet and realize that maybe he really isn't all he cracks himself up to be.

Speaking of someone who adds nothing to this site...Troll!

[Tony-OH]

I think Guts could be a really good Closer. Great life on his FA. I wonder how hard Guts could throw if he was only going 1-2 inning. 95+mph?

I've been leaning heavier and heavier that Guthrie could make a successful conversation to a late inning/closer guy. I just need to see him miss a few more bats with at least one of his pitches. You wonder with the added velocity by only going an inning whether or not he'd get more swings and misses off the fastball?

Hell, if Jose Mesa could convert, I could see Guthrie doing it. The thing is he has value as a 200 inning pitcher, even if his ERA will probably be around 5.00.

[TGO]

I've been leaning heavier and heavier that Guthrie could make a successful conversation to a late inning/closer guy. I just need to see him miss a few more bats with at least one of his pitches. You wonder with the added velocity by only going an inning whether or not he'd get more swings and misses off the fastball?

Hell, if Jose Mesa could convert, I could see Guthrie doing it. The thing is he has value as a 200 inning pitcher, even if his ERA will probably be around 5.00.

I think with a couple additional MPH Guthrie could pitch up and inside a little more effectively and fearlessly and that would open up a lot more options for attacking hitters and putting them away with the slider and change. He would be a very good reliever IMO. But I agree we aren't there quite yet. We are going to need his innings this year.

[RShack]

Man, I don't know about this. A guy who gives you 200 IP is not easy to find. Last year, Guthrie was one of just 17 guys in the league who did that...

[Mackus]

Man, I don't know about this. A guy who gives you 200 IP is not easy to find. Last year, Guthrie was one of just 17 guys in the league who did that...

And it was the first time he's ever done it, and if we hadn't been so desperate for innings, he may have been replaced before having the chance to do it.

I don't think its impossible for Guthrie to get back to being a servicable starter, but I do think he has almost zero chance of being a guy with a sub-4.00 ERA. I don't want him released, but barring some major turnaround or a complete flop by several of our younger pitchers, I'd trade him for the best offer in July.

[RShack]

And it was the first time he's ever done it, and if we hadn't been so desperate for innings, he may have been replaced before having the chance to do it.

OK, 180 IP then. Same thing: it's hard to find. There were only 25 guys who did that.

And, no, he would not have been replaced for pitching how he did last year. That's just wrong. He was way, way better than any team's #5 SP. Nobody who gives you better than 18 outs per GS is getting replaced.

[OrioleMagic]

Speaking of someone who adds nothing to this site...Troll!

That is weak. I guess I should just expect more juvenile behavior from you.

[Mackus]

OK, 180 IP then. Same thing: it's hard to find. There were only 25 guys who did that.

And, no, he would not have been replaced for pitching how he did last year. That's just wrong. He was way, way better than any team's #5 SP. Nobody who gives you better than 18 outs per GS is getting replaced.

Not necessarily replaced from the rotation. He would have been pulled a lot earlier from games if we had more reliable other starters. But with Guthrie, he was sometimes our only guy (along w/ Bergesen) we could rely on to go more than 5 innings. So he'd get left in for 6 or 7 innings while getting hit pretty hard in games he may have been pulled after 4 or 5 if we had a more rested bullpen.

[jerios55]

OK, 180 IP then. Same thing: it's hard to find. There were only 25 guys who did that.

And, no, he would not have been replaced for pitching how he did last year. That's just wrong. He was way, way better than any team's #5 SP. Nobody who gives you better than 18 outs per GS is getting replaced.

He might have had a few outings where they called the BP earlier had they not been so taxed, but he definitely did what was needed.

edit: Slow again

[RShack]

Not necessarily replaced from the rotation. He would have been pulled a lot earlier from games if we had more reliable other starters. But with Guthrie, he was sometimes our only guy (along w/ Bergesen) we could rely on to go more than 5 innings. So he'd get left in for 6 or 7 innings while getting hit pretty hard in games he may have been pulled after 4 or 5 if we had a more rested bullpen.

He averaged 3.39 ER per GS. That's .39 ER worse than *averaging* a QS. Nobody's getting yanked for that.

[TGO]

OK, 180 IP then. Same thing: it's hard to find. There were only 25 guys who did that.

And, no, he would not have been replaced for pitching how he did last year. That's just wrong. He was way, way better than any team's #5 SP. Nobody who gives you better than 18 outs per GS is getting replaced.

And he was by far the worst pitcher to hit 200 innings. No one else was within half a run/9 of him in ERA.

Among pitchers with 180 innings the only pitcher with a worse ERA was Carl Pavano.

Mackus is exactly right about this.