The Great Tillman Debate

[RShack]

I'm saying that if he pitches exactly as effectively as he did last season (and we get a more consistent performance from the rest of our starters) that he won't be able to get to 200 innings even if he is just as healthy and durable.

I think he probably got at least 10 and maybe more innings last year than he would have if Trembley had a more rested bullpen...

Doesn't matter. That would be 190 IP instead of 200 IP. Or maybe as "few" as 180 IP. BFD. That changes nothing about him being a valuable member of a starting rotation... *any* team's starting rotation... not for "some teams" or "a few teams" but for each and every team's rotation...

[Mackus]

Doesn't matter. That would be 190 IP instead of 200 IP. Or maybe as "few" as 180 IP. BFD. That changes nothing about him being a valuable member of a starting rotation... *any* team's starting rotation... not for "some teams" or "a few teams" but for each and every team's rotation...

Great, you've correctly won an argument over a strawman that you created.

My point, that he wouldn't have pitched 200 innings if we had more reliable starters, remains.

[Tony-OH]

I'm saying that if he pitches exactly as effectively as he did last season (and we get a more consistent performance from the rest of our starters) that he won't be able to get to 200 innings even if he is just as healthy and durable.

I think he probably got at least 10 and maybe more innings last year than he would have if Trembley had a more rested bullpen. I'm not thinking of any specific example, but Guthrie was oftentimes a guy we left in there when he had given up 4 ER in the first 4 innings to try and get another couple innings out of him to save the bullpen, when someone like Hernandez or Berken would have been pulled.

Guthrie will have to pitch better this year than he did last year to cover the same number of innings as he did last year. That's my hypothesis.

Maybe that's because Guthrie is the kind of guy who can keep things under control despite a poor beginning without imploding? Guthrie allowed five runs or more in 12 of his 33 starts. Out of those he still got into seven inning in 6 of those starts.

I don't recall Guthrie getting hammered because he was left out there to take one for the bullpen. In fact, if you look at his numbers, he actually was more effective after 76 pitches which suggests that when he's on, he's able to go deep in games and be effective.

If he had terrible numbers after 76 pitches it would suggest he was just left out there to eat innings, but it appears he was actually fairly effective at that point which makes him a good innings eater.

[Mackus]

Maybe that's because Guthrie is the kind of guy who can keep things under control despite a poor beginning without imploding? Guthrie allowed five runs or more in 12 of his 33 starts. Out of those he still got into seven inning in 6 of those starts.

I don't recall Guthrie getting hammered because he was left out there to take one for the bullpen. In fact, if you look at his numbers, he actually was more effective after 76 pitches which suggests that when he's on, he's able to go deep in games and be effective.

If he had terrible numbers after 76 pitches it would suggest he was just left out there to eat innings, but it appears he was actually fairly effective at that point which makes him a good innings eater.

Its because he was the only guy we could count on to get to that 6th or 7th inning without the ERA approaching 9, rather than just the mediocre 5.

If we get improved performance this year, we won't have to gamble as often that Guthrie can find himself in inning 5, we can just go ahead and put in someone from the pen we trust and have them take over. If the rest of the starters still struggle and we need to rest the pen more, then I expect Guthrie to do the same thing he did last year for the most part.

I don't think he's going to get worse, but I do think that the 5ish ERA guy who can go 180-200 IP is the best he's ever going to be anymore. That has some value, especially as we are presently constructed, but that value will become less and less as both he gets more expensive and as our other starters improve.

[Tony-OH]

Its because he was the only guy we could count on to get to that 6th or 7th inning without the ERA approaching 9, rather than just the mediocre 5.

If we get improved performance this year, we won't have to gamble as often that Guthrie can find himself in inning 5, we can just go ahead and put in someone from the pen we trust and have them take over. If the rest of the starters still struggle and we need to rest the pen more, then I expect Guthrie to do the same thing he did last year for the most part.

I don't think he's going to get worse, but I do think that the 5ish ERA guy who can go 180-200 IP is the best he's ever going to be anymore. That has some value, especially as we are presently constructed, but that value will become less and less as both he gets more expensive and as our other starters improve.

I agree with this statement, especially the part about getting more expensive.

[OrioleMagic]

Reps to Mackus, RShack, and Tony for a great thought provoking debate. I really enjoyed reading these last couple pages.

[RShack]

Reps to Mackus, RShack, and Tony for a great thought provoking debate. I really enjoyed reading these last couple pages.

And nobody exceeded Mild Snark ;-)

[Frobby]

He averaged 3.39 ER per GS. That's .39 ER worse than *averaging* a QS. Nobody's getting yanked for that.

This is just a confusing way of saying he had a 5.04 ERA so far as I'm concerned. I think if Guthrie is about the same as last year, he'll hang onto a rotation spot by the skin of his teeth. But he has no margin for error. If your ERA is in the 5.50 area, pitching more innings doesn't help the team, it hurts it. It's like charging less than something costs to make, but trying to make up for it by selling more of it.

[blid]

Guthrie is a good innings eater, but that's not the half of it. He's also crucial for pinch running so it would be a huge mistake not to keep him with the team!

[BaltimoreTerp]

Just to point out, of the 36 pitchers in MLB with 200-or-more innings pitched last season, Guthrie had the highest ERA by almost a full run. James Shields was the next lowest, with 4.14 to Guthrie's 5.04.

Dropping it to 180 innings, there are five pitchers of the additional 22 who had a five-plus ERA. Only Braden Looper does not have an Opening Day rotation position; Carl Pavano, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfry and Livan Hernandez all have jobs.

Just throwing out some information.

[lordbrook]

If your ERA is in the 5.50 area, pitching more innings doesn't help the team, it hurts it. It's like charging less than something costs to make, but trying to make up for it by selling more of it.

Perfectly said since the average ERA throughout modern baseball history has almost never been above 5.0 so he's not helping us win, he's helping us lose.

[TGO]

This is just a confusing way of saying he had a 5.04 ERA so far as I'm concerned. I think if Guthrie is about the same as last year, he'll hang onto a rotation spot by the skin of his teeth. But he has no margin for error. If your ERA is in the 5.50 area, pitching more innings doesn't help the team, it hurts it. It's like charging less than something costs to make, but trying to make up for it by selling more of it.

Thank you. I thought I was taking crazy pills for a while there, being the only one to debate him on his use of that statistic.

Now, Fangraphs does say he was worth 1 WAR and $5 million, so he does have some value. But that is at 5.04. You're absolutely right that he is very close to the margin and he cannot get up near 5.50. And I agree with SG and Tony that if he is a 5.00 ERA pitcher again, and he is in line for a raise to $5 million next year, we will have to think long and hard about passing on that.

[RShack]

This is just a confusing way of saying he had a 5.04 ERA so far as I'm concerned.

Guilty as charged. It was a poor way to make the point I was making.

[Flosman]

Because I am at work and can't look this up, and I am not good at doing this sort of thing either, can someone say what Guthrie's ERA would have been without any runners scoring that he had when he left the game? and what it would be if an average number would have scored? The BP was bad last year and I would be interested how much if any his ERA took a hit because of that.

[lordbrook]

Because I am at work and can't look this up, and I am not good at doing this sort of thing either, can someone say what Guthrie's ERA would have been without any runners scoring that he had when he left the game? and what it would be if an average number would have scored? The BP was bad last year and I would be interested how much if any his ERA took a hit because of that.

Boy I think that would be tough. I think this would have some merit if he was pulled when there were 2 outs and a guy on first, but that wouldn't happen. I can see your point about having a bad BP last year, but if a starter is pulled it's going to be strategic late in the game type stuff (lefty vs. righty, etc.) or because he's not getting it done. The whole point of counting ERA is that the pitcher is responsible for the guy he put on base, not the next guy. And along those lines, where would the ERA of our bullpen have been if they weren't as overused by shoddy starting pitching? I see where you're going but I don't know if I would be that forgiving.