What Will Bryce Harper Sign For? Harper or Taillon off the Board 1st?

[Stotle]

I've been on record since the fall saying that 1) I don't think Taillon ends-up that much cheaper than Harper, and 2) I think Harper signs between $9 - 13 million (getting about the same raise over record for prep hitter that Strasburg got over record for college pitcher.

So I figured since we're far enough along in draft season for everyone to have an opinion, I'd put everyone on record.

1. What does Harper sign for?

2. Who goes off the board first (Harper/Taillon)?

[RandyM]

I've been on record since the fall saying that 1) I don't think Taillon ends-up that much cheaper than Harper, and 2) I think Harper signs between $9 - 13 million (getting about the same raise over record for prep hitter that Strasburg got over record for college pitcher.

So I figured since we're far enough along in draft season for everyone to have an opinion, I'd put everyone on record.

1. What does Harper sign for?

2. Who goes off the board first (Harper/Taillon)?

1. $14.5 Mill.

2. Harper

Here are some interesting answers from Keith Law from a recent chat:

BTW, if we want any shot at picking Taillon we better hope Harper goes first.

I can see people making the argument that PIT would pass on Taillon being a prep arm (The O's picking him is another argument). I see no argument that PIT would pass on Harper. If he throws out a ridiculous number the O's would pass on him too if the Pirates were that scared.

Let me note, I still have a problem seeing the O's drafting Taillon, but some of these quotes back up Tony's statement that Hobgood was the O's top guy on the board no matter what the asking price was for Turner or Matzek.

Mike (DC)

Would the Pirates pass on both Harper and Taillon if they're available at #2?

Klaw

(3:16 PM)

Harper, we don't really know - they did take Alvarez two years ago despite the projected cost. I am leaning towards "no" with them on Taillon, based solely on their reluctance to take the (likely) cheaper, better Tyler Matzek at four last year. But both answers depend on who Option C is.

Mike (Rutland, VT)

What is Option C in this year's draft?

Klaw

(3:24 PM)

That's the $4-5 million question. Anthony Ranaudo and his trick elbow? Deck McGuire and his solid-not-outstanding stuff? (Had one guy hang a Bryan Bullington tag on him ... ouch.) Austin Wilson? Josh Sale? Many of the Option C candidates are also prep arms, whom the Pirates indicated last year they'd prefer to take in later rounds, going a safer route with the higher dollar figure in round one.

Jeff (Baltimore)

With the 3rd pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, the Baltimore Orioles select...

Klaw

(3:27 PM)

Right now I'd guess Taillon, backup choice Manny Machado.

Matt (MA)

If Baltimore didn't pop Matzek, Miller, or Turner last season due to signability, don't you think they may do the same with Tailon?

Klaw

(3:30 PM)

It wasn't signability. They absolutely loved Hobgood.

[Lucky Jim]

If Baltimore didn't pop Matzek, Miller, or Turner last season due to signability, don't you think they may do the same with Tailon?

Klaw

(3:30 PM)

It wasn't signability. They absolutely loved Hobgood.

Well, at least Law believes them.

[Stotle]

To be clear, without inside knowledge, I went with:

1. $9 - 13 million signing bonus for Harper

2. Harper off the board before Taillon

[Mackus]

Well, at least Law believes them.

Yeah that's interesting.

I'm still hoping we get Tailon. Have these images of 4-5 of our current MLB/AAA/AA arms being a stud rotation in 3-4 years in the majors and both Hobgood and Tailon pounding down the door, enabling us to trade 1-2 of the current crop for huge returns, restocking the system and setting up a never-ending cycle of home grown pitching.

[Mackus]

As far as the actual questions:

I'll say Harper gets $10M and is the first selection.

[armyofdarkness]

I guess to answer Stotle's main question, it all boils down to leverage--which they both have. With the year Harper is having he should ask for the moon; Taillon, not so much.

As an aside, last year Matzek had to take quite a bit less to sign, probably due to the economic situation more than anything else--but what do I know?