Time for Bergesen to go back down (update: Bergesen sent down)

[Lucky Jim]

Although I generally defer to you on all things relating to mechanics or scouting a pitcher's skills, I'm not sure if I agree with (or fully understand) what you are saying here. It's not that helpful to give an example using Tim Lincecum. There are an awful lot of pitchers who don't throw harder than 90-92 mph. Do you think Bergesen has less margin for error than most of these guys, and if so, why?

My view is that Bergesen isn't a little off his game so far, he's a lot off. I don't think there are many pitchers who would have success if their command was as far off as Bergy's is right now. It's one thing to make occasional mistakes, like Guthrie did last year; it's another when every other pitch is going somewhere other than where you intended. That's where Bergy is right now, IMO.

Bergesen does not miss bats. This, alone, means he has less margin for error. When you combine that with the fact that he is struggling with both command and control, then you have a hitter with less margin for error. Is there a worse combination than a guy who (i) doesn't miss bats; (ii) walks guys; (iii) can only throw his four seam FB for strikes?

Bergesen's success last year was based on avoiding walks and - to some extent - being fine enough with his command/control that he could minimize "bad contact" (i.e., hard hit balls) by hitters. These results, which looked like a solid No. 2-3 starter, were at least partially dependent on maintaining those two skills.

Bergesen has less margin for error than guys who throw 90-92 who can miss bats (via an "out" pitch). He may not have less margin for error than those guys who throw 90-92 and don't have an outpitch. But how many of them are No.2-3 starters in MLB?

Stotle is - I think - saying that Bergesen has less margin for error than a typical No. 2-3 pitcher. Not less than those with his profile, none of whom are No. 2-3 pitchers.

[Stotle]

Although I generally defer to you on all things relating to mechanics or scouting a pitcher's skills, I'm not sure if I agree with (or fully understand) what you are saying here. It's not that helpful to give an example using Tim Lincecum. There are an awful lot of pitchers who don't throw harder than 90-92 mph. Do you think Bergesen has less margin for error than most of these guys, and if so, why?

My view is that Bergesen isn't a little off his game so far, he's a lot off. I don't think there are many pitchers who would have success if their command was as far off as Bergy's is right now. It's one thing to make occasional mistakes, like Guthrie did last year; it's another when every other pitch is going somewhere other than where you intended. That's where Bergy is right now, IMO.

LJ did a solid job summarizing my point. A couple more clarifications as to what I was getting at:

I think Bergesen's margin for error is basically that of a 4/5 starter. So, to that extent I agree that a comparable pitcher with similar issues would be getting similar results. As far as how "far off" Bergie is from his true game, it's subjective for us posting here. If you think he's close to the pitcher we saw last year, then he is probably way off his game. If you think he wasn't quite the pitcher we saw last year, then he is probably off his game, but not dramatically so.

I expected him to have good starts and bad starts, and to be generally effective -- sometimes very effective. The fact that he has looked this bad over several starts leads me to believe he is way off his game, as well. But none of the starts in isolation are surprising to me. I expected to see "ugly" starts every few times through, "pretty" starts every few times through and "meh" starts about every other start.

Generally, I don't see a ton of difference between a #5 and a swingman, or a #4 and a #5, but a fairly distinct line between a #4 and a swingman. I think Bergie is on the #4/#5 side, but a long ways from a #2/3. Does that make sense? Feel like I'm rambling some and I know we get into sticky ground when I bring it to number designations for pitchers.

[Lucky Jim]

LJ did a solid job summarizing my point. A couple more clarifications as to what I was getting at:

I think Bergesen's margin for error is basically that of a 4/5 starter. So, to that extent I agree that a comparable pitcher with similar issues would be getting similar results. As far as how "far off" Bergie is from his true game, it's subjective for us posting here. If you think he's close to the pitcher we saw last year, then he is probably way off his game. If you think he wasn't quite the pitcher we saw last year, then he is probably off his game, but not dramatically so.

I expected him to have good starts and bad starts, and to be generally effective -- sometimes very effective. The fact that he has looked this bad over several starts leads me to believe he is way off his game, as well. But none of the starts in isolation are surprising to me. I expected to see "ugly" starts every few times through, "pretty" starts every few times through and "meh" starts about every other start.

Generally, I don't see a ton of difference between a #5 and a swingman, or a #4 and a #5, but a fairly distinct line between a #4 and a swingman. I think Bergie is on the #4/#5 side, but a long ways from a #2/3. Does that make sense? Feel like I'm rambling some and I know we get into sticky ground when I bring it to number designations for pitchers.

Thanks for the clarification. I don't actually disagree w/ any of that, so I think any differences were due more to my hurried ineloquence than anything else.

[Stotle]

Thanks for the clarification. I don't actually disagree w/ any of that, so I think any differences were due more to my hurried ineloquence than anything else.

What you said was more than adequate, I just never pass-up an opportunity to speak with Frobby (he's dreamy:hearts:).

[Roll Tide]

Since his replacement on the roster is Castillo who replaces him in the rotation Hendrickson????

[RShack]

Since his replacement on the roster is Castillo who replaces him in the rotation Hendrickson????

Nobody yet. Don't need one until May. They're gonna wait and see.

[Roll Tide]

Nobody yet. Don't need one until May. They're gonna wait and see.

Arrieta is doing great