International Signings This Week...

[BrunoCherrytown]

I'm not willing to say that. And the point here shouldn't be "now we have to pay astronomical prices." The point should be "the market has been inflated by competition, and anyone assuming that DR players are a value is ignoring the influence of that competition on signing bonuses."

Once again, I agree with you on a point you are making. Competition is driving up the prices.

But that's the nature of business. The reason why competition is heating up is because there is talent in the DR and internationally.

And a $3.15 "risk" on Sano is viewed as a better then a drastically overpriced "risk" on a Jason Bay or Holliday to many teams. It's a risk/reward thing for these teams. We take no risks and get no rewards.

And if prices are being driven up by the market that's the natural cycle. Just as prices are driven up in the free agent market by competition.

We can't always have sticker shock. We can't always cry poverty when a team outbids us. At some point we need to show some action.

To go back to my original post - look at Toronto. You want a real blueprint for MacPhail's plan. There it is.

Trading for prospects, smart drafting, and going big internationally. Who could argue with what "Anth...can't spell the rest" is doing up there.

I think they HAVE the GM we THINK we have.

[Lucky Jim]

Once again, I agree with you on a point you are making. Competition is driving up the prices.

But that's the nature of business. The reason why competition is heating up is because there is talent in the DR and internationally.

And a $3.15 "risk" on Sano is viewed as a better then a drastically overpriced "risk" on a Jason Bay or Holliday to many teams. It's a risk/reward thing for these teams. We take no risks and get no rewards.

And if prices are being driven up by the market that's the natural cycle. Just as prices are driven up in the free agent market by competition.

We can't always have sticker shock. We can't always cry poverty when a team outbids us. At some point we need to show some action.

To go back to my original post - look at Toronto. You want a real blueprint for MacPhail's plan. There it is.

Trading for prospects, smart drafting, and going big internationally. Who could argue with what "Anth...can't spell the rest" is doing up there.

I think they HAVE the GM we THINK we have.

I don't agree with this. These are very different risk calculations, and the differences in scale, and the differences in value, mean they're not generally viewed as a trade-off.

What you seem to be ignoring is the very different kind of risk that is purchased w/ international FAs versus major league FAs. Major league FAs are a much more stable market, with almost-guaranteed MLB value (at least some). The certainty of this value is important to teams who can leverage that into the post-season. International FAs are pure projection.

That's the difference between a bubble and healthy market. Here, the value isn't created out of any substantive factor or influence, but merely by the speculation of the market itself.

I don't think it's true that we take no risks: in the amateur draft we signed a number of risky prospects to expensive, above-slot bonuses. It seems to me that MacPhail's understanding of risk is tailored to context.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, too many times people equate improvement in the international market to just signings.

But that's just not the case.

Hiring of more scouts, having facilities, venturing off into new markets, etc.....

The Orioles don't seem to be doing much, if any of this and are well behind the other teams in the division.

[Lucky Jim]

BTW, too many times people equate improvement in the international market to just signings.

But that's just not the case.

Hiring of more scouts, having facilities, venturing off into new markets, etc.....

The Orioles don't seem to be doing much, if any of this and are well behind the other teams in the division.

But we did spend to build a facility, and we did hire more scouts, no?

I think they need to do more, but it does seem they are building a presence. You may want more velocity on this, but I think they're following the Twins' pattern:

In 2009, Stockstill and his staff spent 264 days scouting in countries in which they do not reside. With help from the pro scouting department, that should increase to between 425 to 450 days, Stockstill said. The goal, he said, is 500 scouting days.

"I think John is comfortable with that [increase]," MacPhail said. "He sold me on the idea of getting the base coverage and then bringing senior evaluators through. That is a good formula for us."

There have been other advances. Felipe Alou Jr. was hired in 2008 to oversee the Dominican facility, and Bobby Dickerson, a former Orioles minor league coach, was recently hired as the organization's minor league infield coordinator with added responsibilities as the Dominican field coordinator, meaning he will be accountable for all Orioles baseball instruction on the island.

In 2010, the club expects to operate two Dominican Summer League teams as opposed to having one and sharing another with the Milwaukee Brewers. Also this year, the Orioles signed players from Guatemala, Colombia and Curacao, a first for the organization in each of those countries.

An attempt is being made. The payoff may not come for years - or maybe not at all.

"Ours was a slow and steady climb, and there are other teams that do it differently," Minnesota's Smith said. "But, really, you are one real good player away from having it be an instant success."

http://mobile.baltimoresun.com/inf/infomo?view=webarticle&feed:a=balt_sun_10min&feed:c=worldsports&feed:i=51297801&nopaging=1

[Sports Guy]

But we did spend to build a facility, and we did hire more scouts, no?

I think they need to do more, but it does seem they are building a presence. You may want more velocity on this, but I think they're following the Twins' pattern:

http://mobile.baltimoresun.com/inf/infomo?view=webarticle&feed:a=balt_sun_10min&feed:c=worldsports&feed:i=51297801&nopaging=1

And that ends that.

They have to do a lot more. This idea of letting them off the hook for a slow improvement doesn't fly with me.

I expect more.

Re-arranging the deck chairs and just having other failures in the organization take that over doesn't work for me either.

I want them to bring in better people to oversee things.

[Stotle]

I don't agree with this. These are very different risk calculations, and the differences in scale, and the differences in value, mean they're not generally viewed as a trade-off.

What you seem to be ignoring is the very different kind of risk that is purchased w/ international FAs versus major league FAs. Major league FAs are a much more stable market, with almost-guaranteed MLB value (at least some). The certainty of this value is important to teams who can leverage that into the post-season. International FAs are pure projection.

That's the difference between a bubble and healthy market. Here, the value isn't created out of any substantive factor or influence, but merely by the speculation of the market itself.

I don't think it's true that we take no risks: in the amateur draft we signed a number of risky prospects to expensive, above-slot bonuses. It seems to me that MacPhail's understanding of risk is tailored to context.

Is there any universe where $3.15 million for Sano is not a better investment than $4.5 million for Atkins? Not saying BAL could have had Sano, but the idea that BAL is safer investing in ML free agents only works if you invest wisely in ML free agents, no?

[NewMarketSean]

Do you know anything about any of those places? How many viable prospects there are? Whether the products are worth the outlay?

Do you know that we're not there?

Japan and Korea have their own leagues and I don't think the MLB is allowed to go over there and do what they do in the DR, where it is basically a free-for-all. However, the lack of Asian players signed by the O's over the years is proof that they have not targeted either country as a way to get around the current roadblocks of being in the AL East and having had a weak farm system for so long.

Also, Cal Ripken went to China and said that the potential for baseball in that country is limitless. Have the O's piggy-backed off of that? I would think that China could be another DR type situation.

They're still spending in the D.R. (though this needs to go up), because they've determined there's value, it's just hidden value. There's no shame in that.

You claim cheapness but you don't seem to base it on anything. You seem to lack both information and a sense of scale.

I am basing my opinion on past results and the lack of any signings going on in either of the countries I mentioned. YOu seem to think that I need to prove to you that the Orioles aren't doing these things when based on the lack of evidence of international signings, I think you're the one who has to prove that they are there, and making the necessary changes to maximize the resources there.

[Lucky Jim]

Is there any universe where $3.15 million for Sano is not a better investment than $4.5 million for Atkins? Not saying BAL could have had Sano, but the idea that BAL is safer investing in ML free agents only works if you invest wisely in ML free agents, no?

I've said I think Atkins was a terrible signing. You're right, though, signing Sano is clearly safer than the worst imaginable FA signing.

Not sure how that influences the analysis, though.

[NewMarketSean]

And that ends that.

They have to do a lot more. This idea of letting them off the hook for a slow improvement doesn't fly with me.

I expect more.

Re-arranging the deck chairs and just having other failures in the organization take that over doesn't work for me either.

I want them to bring in better people to oversee things.

Yeah this is what it comes down to. Whatever they are doing, it obviously isn't enough.

I asked the question in a poll a few weeks ago -- are the Orioles doing all they can? -- and the response was an overwhelming no.

[Lucky Jim]

Japan and Korea have their own leagues and I don't think the MLB is allowed to go over there and do what they do in the DR, where it is basically a free-for-all. However, the lack of Asian players signed by the O's over the years is proof that they have not targeted either country as a way to get around the current roadblocks of being in the AL East and having had a weak farm system for so long.

Also, Cal Ripken went to China and said that the potential for baseball in that country is limitless. Have the O's piggy-backed off of that? I would think that China could be another DR type situation.

I am basing my opinion on past results and the lack of any signings going on in either of the countries I mentioned. YOu seem to think that I need to prove to you that the Orioles aren't doing these things when based on the lack of evidence of international signings, I think you're the one who has to prove that they are there, and making the necessary changes to maximize the resources there.

As long as you concede that you're talking about historical failures, and not addressing the current administration, then you're on safe ground.

I'm not actually alleging anything, though. You said that this was evidence of them being "cheap." He who alleges bears the burden of proof.

I've not seen enough to say that I think that any of those markets is a viable source of talent, let alone that it could in some way be a replacement for the D.R..

I think it's telling that the O's could spend $10m on some half-ass prospect out of the Netherlands and your criticism of the O's would fail - once you divorce your analysis from cost-benefit valuation all you're asking for is "satisfaction" from the team. Empty gestures.

[Lucky Jim]

The China example is hilarious, btw.

[NewMarketSean]

The China example is hilarious, btw.

I am sure people were saying the same thing about Korea, Japan and the Dominican Republic.

I mean, there was a time where blacks weren't even allowed to play.

[BrunoCherrytown]

I don't agree with this. These are very different risk calculations, and the differences in scale, and the differences in value, mean they're not generally viewed as a trade-off.

What you seem to be ignoring is the very different kind of risk that is purchased w/ international FAs versus major league FAs. Major league FAs are a much more stable market, with almost-guaranteed MLB value (at least some). The certainty of this value is important to teams who can leverage that into the post-season. International FAs are pure projection.

That's the difference between a bubble and healthy market. Here, the value isn't created out of any substantive factor or influence, but merely by the speculation of the market itself.

I don't think it's true that we take no risks: in the amateur draft we signed a number of risky prospects to expensive, above-slot bonuses. It seems to me that MacPhail's understanding of risk is tailored to context.

I enjoy this debate. I hope you are not taking it as combative. You are making excellent points.

I'm not missing risk calculations. I understand the speculative nature of international prospects. To go with your bubble theme - Intn'l player are the equivalent of penny stocks, futures or options. Whereas upper level free agents are your high yield, dividend blue chippers.

And a diverse investment portfolio would be say 80/20 between the 2.

But MacPhail doesn't go after either one. Here or in Chicago. #3 Media Market - mid range payroll almost every year he was there.

Castro was signed 3.5 weeks after MacPhail resigned. I put that up in a thread last week. Although I admit there are discrepancies between websites on those Castro dates. And I hope he did sign him. Gives me hope.

But its been written in Chicago press and MacPhail said it himself that he failed to develop positional prospects there just like here. Sano might've been a nice positional prospect for us. We won't know for a while.

While your definition of bubble is true in context of financial markets such as tech, oil, currently with gold due to inflation concerns, the dollar as its being propped up by Greece etc. - I'm not sure it applies to International Prospects quite the same. The % of hispanics playing in the MLB says that its not a bubble. Maybe its just the market has caught up to the value of the risk/reward.

Although if all of the high end international players fail - you may very well be correct. And that bubble could burst. But I doubt it personally.

And throwing a couple hundred grand at this draft player or that one is great. And I applaud MacPhail for doing it. It's still the cheapest way to build a team - hands down.

And that's because the Draft is not a free market as the player is forced to sign or go back to college.

But if the Draft was truly a free market (like the international market is) you'd see these contracts go for many multiples of what the international players are going for now.

Imagine if you had the Yankees in the running for the #1 player each year in the draft. What would Strassburg get...how about Harper?

How would MacPhail's risk/reward stack up then if he had to actually bid against teams for Wieters?

MacPhail would fail miserably under these situations just as I personally feel he is in the international markets.

Lucky Jim - let me ask you, in the small sample size we have - who do you think is a better GM given what they've done and had to work with.

Toronto GM or ours? Both are on the same mission.

[Lucky Jim]

I am sure people were saying the same thing about Korea, Japan and the Dominican Republic.

I mean, there was a time where blacks weren't even allowed to play.

The China example is hilarious because the expenditure will be to develop baseball culturally there before we can even begin to reap a benefit. In the Dominican, in Korea, and in Japan the game was picked up and developed internally. Those who started scouting there never had to spend on the speculative development of a competitive level of play that might someday be valuable.

[Sports Guy]

The China example is hilarious because the expenditure will be to develop baseball culturally there before we can even begin to reap a benefit. In the Dominican, in Korea, and in Japan the game was picked up and developed internally. Those who started scouting there never had to spend on the speculative development of a competitive level of play that might someday be valuable.

The Orioles should absolutely try to get into China.

HOWEVER, what I am unsure about is will the politics over there allow it?