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Harper, Taillon or #4 next year


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I mentioned in another thread, but wanted more opinions. I don't think it is wise for the O's to sign a #3 pick that doesn't have the projection of a difference maker. When you read that there is little difference between the 3-15 picks, it isn't worth wasting the pick.

From all indications, next year projects to be a draft with more talent at the top. Why not have two of the top 4 picks next season? It is smarter for the long term health of the franchise. We've already spent a #5 pick on a guy that could have been there at 15, I don't want to see us do it, again.

Spend some extra money this season in the Dominican instead of going overslot for anyone at #3.

An extra year in the system doesn't mean anything to me if the talent level isn't the same. I know this will be the argument of some.

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Although I understand the idea of saving it for next year, I don't like the idea of passing on a potential difference maker this year for 2 next year. Plus, all the conspiracy / tight budget people would complain that we will not be able to sign 2 high picks next year leading to 2 signability picks next year. I like the bird in the hand better than the 2 in the bush idea. We need talent in the minors now, not 2 years from now. Have Jordan target the top 3 players and he takes the highest one left at the time. We could get a Tim L. or a Markakis, etc....And yes we could draft Rowell, etc, bt we could draft 2 Rowell's next year.

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I don't like the idea of choosing a guy to just not sign him. Or reaching for a guy that isn't worthy of the third overall choice either. Harper, Taillon, Pomeranz are all worthy though and perhaps Machado is as well. I don't see the club salivating at the thought of getting 1:4 next year as compensation when it can better itself in this draft.

As for it being healthier for the farm system, that doesn't fly either. The club has some talent at the top and bottom of it's farm teams. With a big gaping hole in the middle. Best to keep a steady supply of talent infusing it. The club does that and it will find itself less anemic in future years regarding talent infusion creeping it's way into the Major League club.

To draft someone, anyone just to get a comp pick next season is like your Doctor saying, "Don't worry about that tumor we discovered. I think it's best to wait until it's as big as a grapefruit before we remove it. Then everyone will get interested and think I've done one hell of a job."

Right now the club has some solid prospects that could become really good pitchers in the future. It will always need more. Though I am nervous about Manny Machado, I can hardly dispute that drafting him would give the team some help in the infield. It may just be that the A-Rod Comps are completely nuts IMO. Perhaps that is what has caused me to shy away from him. point being the club has needs everywhere. Better to address them best way you can and not do so at the cost of something else.

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On the reasons you don't do this is that you lose all negotiating leverage in next years draft with whomever you pick with the #4 pick.

If you don't sign a pick for two years in a row you lose the pick. So the #4 pick next year could literally hold out for a ransom in terms of signing bonus, knowing that if you don't agree you will lose that very valuable high draft choice.

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