Interesting bits from Callis - "99.9% they sign [Machado]"

[McLovin]

Big update from Melewski:

They may be millions apart still, but you don't take a guy with that pick not planning to spend the money on him. You don't take that guy at number three and walk away I don't think.

I say it's 99.9 percent they sign him. It would just absolutely stun me if they didn't.

Also this note on Narron and Bridwell:

Baseball America reported that Narron agreed to a $650,000 dollar deal, which was $478,000 above slot for him and that Bridwell will get $625,000, which is $475,000 above slot for his draft spot.

Callis goes on to note:

[The O's] have two of the three biggest deals in terms of how much they were over MLB slot recommendation of any team in baseball right now in Narron and Bridwell.

[NCRaven]

I fully expected Machado's signing to go down to the last minute - and get done just before the deadline. It's the other Top 10 picks that are irritating me. And, it seems to be across the game, not just the Orioles.

The top 3 picks were considered to be head and shoulders above the rest of this draft. So, the fact that all three will demand far and away more than the slot figures for their positions is not surprising. Because of this, and MLB's reluctance to approve these deals too early, it's no surprise at all that none of them have signed to this point. Like Callis, I think that there's too much at stake for both the teams and the players for these deals not to get done.

As far as the Orioles, if they don't sign Machado, it will destroy much of the goodwill - at least among fans that really follow the game and team closely - that Showalter's signing and the team's resurgence have generated.

[Frobby]

As far as the Orioles, if they don't sign Machado, it will destroy much of the goodwill - at least among fans that really follow the game and team closely - that Showalter's signing and the team's resurgence have generated.

I think Machado will sign, but if he doesn't, I doubt that many fans will react that strongly. Only a tiny fraction of fans follow the draft, and among those who do, there is at least a significant number who feel we'd do as well with the 3A pick next year as we'd do with Machado. That said, I'd certainly be disappointed.

[Hank Scorpio]

I loved this part:

"My guess is he could wind up signing for five to six million dollars. The Orioles might think that number is closer to four. But he's a better player than Donovan Tate (taken third last year) was last year and Tate got 6.25 million."

[Flosman]

A question for our draft experts. Is this kid a talent that could play in the majors before his 21st b-day? I know nothing is known for sure but does he have that sort of ability?

[QBsILLEST1]

A question for our draft experts. Is this kid a talent that could play in the majors before his 21st b-day? I know nothing is known for sure but does he have that sort of ability?

I mean anything can happen, but I doubt it. I'd say at the earliest, maybe while he is 21...

A big reason for him not being ready before 1 is also because he is losing this whole year.

[QBsILLEST1]

I loved this part:

Tate was also a big football recruit which made him signing even harder. I remember Stotle mentioning that players get big bonuses for different reasons. Some are because their level of play is actually worth that money, then other times, their level of play isn't necessarily worth that money but because they have such a strong college commitment, you have to buy them away from college. Tate was a perfect combo of that IMO. Also, a lot of his value was wrapped up in his potential for being a 5 tooler and his athleticism and once he focuses soley on baseball he'd take off. There were even at the times of the draft questions about his swing and how raw his approach was...

Machado was a different case, more of his bonus has to do with his ability...yes he has a college commitment, but not to play both baseball and football. From day one his commitment didn't seem very strong......IMO of course....

[Arthur_Bryant]

I mean anything can happen, but I doubt it. I'd say at the earliest, maybe while he is 21...

A big reason for him not being ready before 1 is also because he is losing this whole year.

Yeah, but he just turned 18. His 21st birthday will be July 2013. If we stretch the deadline a little bit for an arrival date of the latter half of 2013, then he has basically three seasons to do it, provided he gets onto a fullseason team pretty early next year. And the O's have been pretty aggressive with Hoes and Avery, which suggests to me that a talented HS pick has a chance to move quickly without being dominant if he shows that he can maintain in an environment where he's challenged.

I don't know whether Machado has the talent to start next season in Delmarva and to get a mid-season promotion somewhere along the line. But I am sure that the O's see him as having that sort of potential.

[Flosman]

Thanks for the input. What prompted the question was the favorable comps some were giving him around the draft. Read a couple of comments that he could be an Arod type SS. I don't know how predictable Arods development was. I also recognize how rare that path is. I guess the question is against elite talent was there real separation between him and the others?

[JTrea81]

I seem to recall the Commish's office saying they wouldn't look at significant overslots until this week. That is probably the main culprit for the lack of Top 10 signings.

[allstar1579]

I seem to recall the Commish's office saying they wouldn't look at significant overslots until this week. That is probably the main culprit for the lack of Top 10 signings.

Yup. Generally is every year. That's why I've tried to stay out of the "will we sign this guy" threads so far. It's not really worth debating until after the 10th because that's the first the comm. office will start to look at them. Just another part of a broken system.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Thanks for the input. What prompted the question was the favorable comps some were giving him around the draft. Read a couple of comments that he could be an Arod type SS. I don't know how predictable Arods development was. I also recognize how rare that path is. I guess the question is against elite talent was there real separation between him and the others?

Seems to me that most of those who are familiar with Machado's game consider this comp to be hardcore hyperbole. I haven't yet seen any credible scouting report suggesting that he has the potential power to hit 500-plus HRs in MLB (for example).

[eb45]

So why isn't Bywater signed yet? Does he just not want to play pro ball or something?

[QBsILLEST1]

Thanks for the input. What prompted the question was the favorable comps some were giving him around the draft. Read a couple of comments that he could be an Arod type SS. I don't know how predictable Arods development was. I also recognize how rare that path is. I guess the question is against elite talent was there real separation between him and the others?

The ARod comps are bad. They are pretty unfair, ARod was a Bryce Harper-like talent when drafted, Machado is an elite talent no doubt, but not a generational talent.

As for your question, I am having a hard time understanding it. WHen you say "others" do you mean in this draft or compared to other elite SS draftees?

[QBsILLEST1]

Yup. Generally is every year. That's why I've tried to stay out of the "will we sign this guy" threads so far. It's not really worth debating until after the 10th because that's the first the comm. office will start to look at them. Just another part of a broken system.

Then what about the Bridwell and Narron signings? Do you mean 1st round, premium overslots? As in $1M+ overslot?