Third base in 2011, if Bell can't cut it.

[Sports Guy]

Well he's apparently staying put so he's not an option.

Beltre is our best option and should be our #1 target in the offseason.

Would you give Beltre a 5/75 contract?

[clapdiddy]

Would you give Beltre a 5/75 contract?

I'd probably give him a 3/40 contract with a 4th year option. I don't think I'd go 5 years on him.

[Frobby]

Would you give Beltre a 5/75 contract?

JTrea already suggested 5/$85 mm

[ChaosLex]

Would you give Beltre a 5/75 contract?

As if you had to ask.

[Sports Guy]

JTrea already suggested 5/$85 mm

Oh wow...That would be horrible.

[JTrea81]

I understand that. But I also understand he's a soon-to-be 32-year-old guy with a .770-something career OPS going into free agency with a nearly 1.000 OPS season. So he's a good third baseman with some risk attached who's looking for a contract based on a MVP-ish season.

You are just looking at his bat. Even in his "down years" in Seattle he was still a 3.0+ WAR player because of his glove.

I think he'll be in between 4.0-6.0 WAR for us for the next several years.

And that is worth a 5/80-85 contract.

Beltre is a hard worker and never takes his defensive ability for granted.

[waroriole]

You are just looking at his bat. Even in his "down years" in Seattle he was still a 3.0+ WAR player because of his glove.

I think he'll be in between 4.0-6.0 WAR for us for the next several years.

And that is worth a 5/85 contract.

Beltre is a hard worker and never takes his defensive ability for granted.

What is that even supposed to mean. Are you his agent? Good grief, the guy has had a handful of season over 4 WAR and you think that at age 32 he's going to consistently be above 4 WAR, and go up to 6. I wonder why people take your opinions with a grain of salt.

[Mackus]

I'd probably give him a 3/40 contract with a 4th year option. I don't think I'd go 5 years on him.

That's about what I'd be comfortable doing for Beltre. But I think the Red Sox definitely keep him if they only have to go 3 years.

4/$48M is probably about the absolute minimum we could have any chance of getting Beltre, and it would likely take even more. I'm really hesitant to commit that much money to him.

[JTrea81]

Oh wow...That would be horrible.

But it's realistic.

You constantly want to lowball FAs but Baltimore is going to have to pay more than most to land him, and he is a Boras client.

It comes down to do you want the player or not?

3B is terrible throughout baseball. There are only a few elite players there and Beltre is one of them, so you are going to have to pay for his services.

[JTrea81]

What is that even supposed to mean. Are you his agent? Good grief, the guy has had a handful of season over 4 WAR and you think that at age 32 he's going to consistently be above 4 WAR, and go up to 6. I wonder why people take your opinions with a grain of salt.

He takes a million ground balls," said Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia. "I've never seen anyone take that many. And he takes them in on the grass and he has them hit so hard. He's trying to work on his reaction and be as quick as he possibly can, and he's one of the quickest third basemen I've seen."

Red Sox third-base coach Tim Bogar has rare perspective when it comes to Beltre, having been his teammate for a brief stint in 2001 and now serving as his infield instructor.

"He's never going to be outworked," said Bogar. "He's prepared for everything that happens. It's kind of nice to see, especially in Spring Training, when you have a bunch of younger kids watching. You see a guy that's been around like him doing the work that he does, he's a good influence on all the kids. That's why greats are great -- they keep working. They know that sooner or later, stuff will catch up to them and he's not going to allow that to happen."

"I'll tell you one thing, he really wants to play," said manager Terry Francona. "He wants to play every day. We had to like, sit on him when he rolled over on that ball [and hurt his ankle]. He was over jumping rope and taking grounders. He's a tough kid. He's been blessed with some great instincts at third, but he takes more ground balls than anybody I've ever seen."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100323&content_id=8887844&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

[Sports Guy]

But it's realistic.

You constantly want to lowball FAs but Baltimore is going to have to pay more than most to land him, and he is a Boras client.

It comes down to do you want the player or not?

3B is terrible throughout baseball. There are only a few elite players there and Beltre is one of them, so you are going to have to pay for his services.

I don't want the player.

I agree that 5/85 is potentially what it would take to get him here.

But its an idiotic contract to give out with very little basis of reality that it works out well for us.

[JTrea81]

I don't want the player.

I agree that 5/85 is potentially what it would take to get him here.

But its an idiotic contract to give out with very little basis of reality that it works out well for us.

Aren't you a Beltre fan?

Nobody is expecting him to put up 7.0+ WAR seasons, but a 4.0 WAR season average is pretty doable for him.

For him to be worth a 5/80-85 deal he'd have to put up 20-21 WAR over those 5 years. That's quite doable IMO. And even if he were only to put up 17-19, you'd only be overpaying by a small amount.

Do you really expect his glove to decline that badly that he won't be able to put up 4.0 WAR per season?

[waroriole]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100323&content_id=8887844&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

Teammates say good things about him, who would have thought.

[Sports Guy]

Aren't you a Beltre fan?

Yes but what I am not is a stupid Beltre fan.

Nobody is expecting him to put up 7.0+ WAR seasons, but a 4.0 WAR season average is pretty doable for him.

Not sure why this is the case. He has been 4 or better 3 times in his career, including this one. Over the next 5 years, he is probably going to be worth somewhere around 17-18 wins AT MOST. That's around an average of 3.5 wins a season which, if you take out the outlier year where he had a 10 WAR, puts him at about his average season for his career...and that is assuming he can play up to those averages as he gets well into his mid 30s.

Do you really expect his glove to decline that badly that he won't be able to put up 4.0 WAR per season?

In 2005, he had a UZR of 7.7..He was worth 2.5 WAR. So yes, it definitely could. You are acting like just because he works hard at it, that he can stop the aging process. It doesn't work that way.

I think a realistic expectation for him, over the next 5 years, is that he is worth 15 WAR. That puts him right around a 5/60 deal in terms of what he is really worth. So, you are basically advocating overpaying him 5 million a year. Now, that's not a terrible amount of money but there are smarter ways to allocate the money IMO.

I would have no issues giving him a 3 year deal and would probably go 4...But 5 years is poor.

[JTrea81]

Yes but what I am not is a stupid Beltre fan.

Not sure why this is the case. He has been 4 or better 3 times in his career, including this one. Over the next 5 years, he is probably going to be worth somewhere around 17-18 wins AT MOST. That's around an average of 3.5 wins a season which, if you take out the outlier year where he had a 10 WAR, puts him at about his average season for his career...and that is assuming he can play up to those averages as he gets well into his mid 30s.

In 2005, he had a UZR of 7.7..He was worth 2.5 WAR. So yes, it definitely could. You are acting like just because he works hard at it, that he can stop the aging process. It doesn't work that way.

I think a realistic expectation for him, over the next 5 years, is that he is worth 15 WAR. That puts him right around a 5/60 deal in terms of what he is really worth. So, you are basically advocating overpaying him 5 million a year. Now, that's not a terrible amount of money but there are smarter ways to allocate the money IMO.

I would have no issues giving him a 3 year deal and would probably go 4...But 5 years is poor.

I have a 4 year window with Nick Markakis under contract and 3 years with Brian Roberts. I intend to go for it in that time period. If it takes a 5 year deal to go for it within those 3-4 years, that's the deal I'm giving Beltre.

If I win the WS within, it will have been worth the risk of that extra year or two.