Arrieta vs Matusz

[Old#5fan]

Is our permaban bet still on for Arrieta vs Matusz next year?

It never was on. I wanted to make a bet that after three years in the league Arrieta will be the best of the two. I also wanted to make if for a $100 not for a banning. I don't want to see anyone ban, even if I won that wouldn't be winning anything. I would take your money though!:laughlol:

[Old#5fan]

Wow, I don't even know where to start. Look, no offense, but you don't know what you are talking about here. That "sinker" type pitch is his slider. It bites downward almost like a hard 12-6 curveball but it's a slider. No one throws a 86-88 MPH curveball.

His curveball is a 12-6 mid-70s pitch. I'll accept an argument that Arrieta's slider can be better than Matusz's curveball at times, but command is not an afterthought, it's huge. You can have the raw stuff you want and it won't help you if you can not command it. The K:BB ratios for Matusz and Arrieta tell you all you need to know about their stuff from a hitter's perspective.

I grew up loving Dempsey. He was a great defensive catcher and I'll never take anything away from what kind of player he was. Unfortunately, almost every time I've heard him open his mouth as a broadcaster I can't help but shutter.

I'm fine with people who like Arrieta more. Lots of people are wowed by velocity and if I'm a radar scout I'm going to love Arrieta over Matusz ever day of the week. However, we have these little things called stats and they tell us that hitters don't like facing Matusz more than Arrieta.

When you talk overall ceiling it's semantics on how you judge that ceiling. I'm fine with people who say Arrieta has a higher ceiling if in their option his raw stuff grades out higher. I just don't agree that his ceiling is as high as Matusz, mainly because of Matusz's better command and more effective offspeed pitches.

You are counting his 2-seam and 4-seam fastball as two different pitches but I bet you can't tell them apart 90% of the time.

BTW, most breaking balls left over the plate in the major leagues are very hittable.

I was watching a game he was pitching where the tv commentators were talking about Arietta throwing a four and two seam fastball. I cannot recall who was calling that down breaking pitch thrown with less velocity a fast ball but I am thinking it might have been Boddicker and that was backed up by Dempsey in the game recap. So I was merely going by what a couple of former major leaguers were calling his pitches. They were definitely calling his four and two seam fast balls as entirely different pitches with one of them being in the 87-88 mph range and the other in the 92-95 mph range. The slower one was breaking down. I am not imagining this I did hear it being said as I found it extremely interesting and quite impressive, moreso than any other of the young pitchers.

[BRob51]

Arrieta has better pure stuff than Matusz. This year, the only plus pitch I see from Matusz is the curve. The changeup has regressed big time IMO, but even when in tip top shape, I still think Jake has better overall stuff. The kicker though is that Matusz has much better command of his pitches and has a better feel for pitching in general, so he gets more K's.

Matusz 2010: AVG FB, +CU, slightly above AVG changeup.

Arrieta 2010: +FB, +CU, +SL, below AVG CH(though he does throw some solid changesup every now and again)

And, Matusz's issue with the changeup has a lot to do with his FB. It has regressed in terms of velocity this year, but the changeup has maintained the same velocity. If his velocity returns to it's normal levels, his changeup should look a lot better.

Arrieta has the higher ceiling, Matusz isn't far behind though, but IMO has more of a #2 ceiling with a very high floor and a great chance in reaching his ceiling. Hands down, Matusz has the best chance to lead our rotation going forward, but Arrieta has the potential to become better in time, we shall see.....

You really think Matusz's better pitch is the CB? I think earlier in the year it may have been more consistent, but in recent games, and seemingly all his best starts, the CH has been a true out pitch. I think your pitch ratings are just a bit optimistic all around.

By the way, I pretty much agree with everything you said about ZB.

[Old#5fan]

You really think Matusz's better pitch is the CB? I think earlier in the year it may have been more consistent, but in recent games, and seemingly all his best starts, the CH has been a true out pitch. I think your pitch ratings are just a bit optimistic all around.

By the way, I pretty much agree with everything you said about ZB.

I think the minority you voted Arrieta on this poll are going to turn out to be right and shock the majority who voted Matusz. I am calling it here and now.

[VeveJones007]

Koji chimes in here too and says hi.

Yep, as does Mark Buerhle and his career 3.81 ERA. Heck, his fastball usually sits at 85.

[BRob51]

This is where people get fooled in the velocity argument. You and others downgrade Matusz's fastball because it's only 89-90, but the quality of the changeup makes that fastball seem a lot faster to the hitter.

Well, that's why people say his FB 'plays up'. It's an average FB that plays up because of a plus CH. Guys obviously can be good without a good FB, but it does severely limit a ceiling.

[BRob51]

I think the minority you voted Arrieta on this poll are going to turn out to be right and shock the majority who voted Matusz. I am calling it here and now.

I voted ZB, but I have always tried to remind people that Arrieta could very well be the best of the Big 3 (now 4). Maybe I'm just on the ZB bandwagon. If you had made that poll last week I would have voted Arrieta.

[Frobby]

Regarding Britton, it never fails to amaze me how whatever top minor league pitcher we have will be considered better than those who have reached the majors and taken a few lumps. ZB may be very good, but his numbers at AAA this year aren't as good as Arrieta's were this year or Tillman's last year. When he comes up, I expect him to have his struggles just like anyone else.

Arrieta's secondary stuff is better than I expected, both his curve and slider. I still give Matusz the overall edge on secondary stuff due to his changeup. I'd give Arrieta the overall edge on stuff because of his fastball, which after all is the most commonly thrown pitch.

[allstar1579]

Regarding Britton, it never fails to amaze me how whatever top minor league pitcher we have will be considered better than those who have reached the majors and taken a few lumps. ZB may be very good, but his numbers at AAA this year aren't as good as Arrieta's were this year or Tillman's last year. When he comes up, I expect him to have his struggles just like anyone else.

Arrieta's secondary stuff is better than I expected, both his curve and slider. I still give Matusz the overall edge on secondary stuff due to his changeup. I'd give Arrieta the overall edge on stuff because of his fastball, which after all is the most commonly thrown pitch.

Command should be the tiebreaker, and aside from some lumps this season Matusz's is better.

[VeveJones007]

Well, that's why people say his FB 'plays up'. It's an average FB that plays up because of a plus CH. Guys obviously can be good without a good FB, but it does severely limit a ceiling.

Why? Adam Wainwright had a below average fastball last year and still put up a 2.63 ERA.

Quality pitching is a sum of several variables and people often get too caught up on a single variable: fastball velocity. That is all that I'm trying to point out. One pitcher is not necessarily any better, nor does he necessarily project any better, than the other just because he has more velocity on his fastball.

[crowmst3k!]

Part of stuff is having the ability to command it and Matusz, whose command isn't as good as it will be, is still light years ahead of Arrieta at this point.

Sports Guy, this is all you needed to say. It's phenomenal how this organization has missed this concept for the past decade+. Unreal.

[BRob51]

Why? Adam Wainwright had a below average fastball last year and still put up a 2.63 ERA.

Quality pitching is a sum of several variables and people often get too caught up on a single variable: fastball velocity. That is all that I'm trying to point out. One pitcher is not necessarily any better, nor does he necessarily project any better, than the other just because he has more velocity on his fastball.

You're pointing out exceptions while I'm trying to speak in generalities. And while you're not wrong that velocity isn't the only determining factor, but it's one of the biggest ones. And Wainwright has a slightly above average fastball

[Frobby]

I did want to weigh in on one thing -- whether command can be learned at a relatively late age. A guy who comes to mind is Curt Schilling. He wasn't a great command guy in the minors or in his early years in the majors. He walked 39 batters in 75 innings his last year with the Orioles, at age 24. At that point, his career BB/9 was 4.4. By the end of his career, his career BB/9 was 2.0. So, it's definitely possible, you just don't see it all the time.

[BRob51]

I did want to weigh in on one thing -- whether command can be learned at a relatively late age. A guy who comes to mind is Curt Schilling. He wasn't a great command guy in the minors or in his early years in the majors. He walked 39 batters in 75 innings his last year with the Orioles, at age 24. At that point, his career BB/9 was 4.4. By the end of his career, his career BB/9 was 2.0. So, it's definitely possible, you just don't see it all the time.

Colby Lewis is another example.

[QBsILLEST1]

You really think Matusz's better pitch is the CB? I think earlier in the year it may have been more consistent, but in recent games, and seemingly all his best starts, the CH has been a true out pitch. I think your pitch ratings are just a bit optimistic all around.

By the way, I pretty much agree with everything you said about ZB.

This year, from what I have seen, yes. I have seen plus curveballs, but the changeup from him this year hasn't been plus IMO.

Just out of curiosity, what pitch grades have I been optimistic about? Jake Arrieta has a plus fastball and plus slider which is backed by scouting reports though at times the slider is inconsistent. The curveball is a pitch he has tightened up this year and to me its plus. In actuality, to me it looks better than the slider at times even. Brian Matusz, has an average FB, curveball was plus previously according to reports, and IMO this year is the only pitch that looks as good as it did last year(right now). The changeup from what I have seen wasn't plus......