Arrieta vs Matusz

[Old#5fan]

Old #5 Fan:

I have a question for you. If you had to start from scratch and could keep only one position player and one pitcher on our current team, who would they be?

Wow, that is a very tough question. I would probably take Arrieta as the pitcher, but not sure if I would take Wieters, Pie, or Jones as the second player. That is a tough call but I would probably have to go with Wieters.

[JayThomas]

If he has a 10% chance of being better, does that mean he has a higher ceiling?

Yes, that's exactly what that means. It also means that he has only a 10% chance of reaching that ceiling, but it does clearly mean that he has the higher ceiling.

[Sports Guy]

No, thats not it at all. What I trying to tell you is don't you see the foolishness in someone who is a casual fan stating that Rick Dempsey is clueless when it comes to judging a young major league pitcher? You offer no support to that statement whatsover, as to what experience you have that would enable you to state this with even an iota of certainty?

I on the other hand am showing that Dempsey supports my belief and it apparently makes you mad because it runs counter to your apparent infallible (in your estimation anyway) take on Arrieta. I also sometimes disagree with Dempsey as well as in his take on Markakis and a GG. Nevertheless I don't think he is clueless nor would it be appropriate for me to state it. Another poster has also called you to task for this statement. You are wrong and you know it in making such an unfounded statement.

Everytime Dempsey speaks, he gives me my "support".

[neveradoubt]

There are many people on here that believe Arrieta has a higher upside than Matusz and one of the things people point to is that Arrieta has better stuff.

My question is this...Do people understand the difference between stuff and velocity?

Arrieta clearly has better velocity than Matusz and his fastball will generally have better movement...I get that..We can all agree with that. But I don't see how anyone can look at their secondary pitches and say that Arrieta's are better. Yes, he has a good curve from time to time but its not nearly as consistent as Matusz's CB.

Part of stuff is having the ability to command it and Matusz, whose command isn't as good as it will be, is still light years ahead of Arrieta at this point.

People have talked about Arrieta's mound presence, poise, etc....Well, Matusz has the same thing going for him. Both of them want to go after the top teams in the division. Both of them want the ball.

So, to me, it seems like it comes back to one thing...People like Arrieta more because he throws harder...but yet they seem to forget the fact that Matusz commands the ball better, misses more bats and K's more hitters. So, throwing harder isn't resulting in anything but ooooo's and ahhhh's from those looking at the radar gun.

It is the perfect storm. 2 pitchers with different styles. Like Hamels and Halladay.Now if only Weiters could contibute a little more offensivley. This team is really startting to show why 2011 is going to be a great time to be an Orioles fan.

[BRobinsonfan]

I also disagree with Tony that Arrieta's curve ball is inferior to Matusz. When Arrieta has a good one it is much more "Bedard-like" in its break and velocity whereas Matusz has one that isn't thrown that hard and doesn't break nearly as much and is in fact quite a dangerous pitch if he leaves it over the middle of the plate. He has given up some monster shot homers when he hangs one. I haven't seen hitters doing much with Arrieta's curve but he also doesn't throw it as much and his command is a lot worse with it than Matusz. However, when he is throwing it well it is superior to Matusz throwing his well.

Not specifically related to the curve per se - but Matusz has given up - on average 1 HR for every 9.0 innings pitched whereas Arrieta has averaged 1 HR allowed for every 10.3 innings pitched (in a small sample size). Neither one are really prone to giving up the long ball.

[BRobinsonfan]

I was watching a game he was pitching where the tv commentators were talking about Arietta throwing a four and two seam fastball. I cannot recall who was calling that down breaking pitch thrown with less velocity a fast ball but I am thinking it might have been Boddicker and that was backed up by Dempsey in the game recap. So I was merely going by what a couple of former major leaguers were calling his pitches. They were definitely calling his four and two seam fast balls as entirely different pitches with one of them being in the 87-88 mph range and the other in the 92-95 mph range. The slower one was breaking down. I am not imagining this I did hear it being said as I found it extremely interesting and quite impressive, moreso than any other of the young pitchers.

You know for a guy that is always preaching to others to rely on what they see watching the games - you seem to rely a lot on what the announcers are telling you that you see. You've used the "I heard the announces say it" defense on more than one occasion when challenged by someone like Tony or Frobby.

Also - do you now think Arrieta is better than Tillman?

[Old#5fan]

You know for a guy that is always preaching to others to rely on what they see watching the games - you seem to rely a lot on what the announcers are telling you that you see. You've used the "I heard the announces say it" defense on more than one occasion when challenged by someone like Tony or Frobby.

Also - do you now think Arrieta is better than Tillman?

At this point and time yes, Arrieta is better than Tillman as Tillman isn't even in the majors. I think Tillman could still end up being better though.

[OriolesMagic83]

I think Matusz has one of the best ideas of "how" to pitch of any young pitcher in the majors, just need some polishing. Arrieta seems to have better pure stuff.

I hope we are still having this argument in 10 years.

[Frobby]

Tonight was one I label "mediocre." So, Arrieta's count is 8 good starts, 7 poor ones, one mediocre one.

I think he'd be much better if he had a reliable change-up.

[allstar1579]

Tonight was one I label "mediocre." So, Arrieta's count is 8 good starts, 7 poor ones, one mediocre one.

I think he'd be much better if he had a reliable change-up.

I was just thinking this after I posted in the other thread about Matusz and Jake. Guys know either his FB or his Slider or coming, if they are waiting for that FB and get hit with a good change it could be a big advantage for Jake.

[QBsILLEST1]

I was just thinking this after I posted in the other thread about Matusz and Jake. Guys know either his FB or his Slider or coming, if they are waiting for that FB and get hit with a good change it could be a big advantage for Jake.

Jake has a fastball, slider and curveball. The slider is thrown much harder and has slider movement on it, the curve is more of a 12-6 downer. The games where his changeup is working for him, he is at his best. He throws it too hard though quite often and I didn't see 1 changeup the whole night tonite from what I saw, though I wasn't watching every pitch...

I think he should try pronating some with the changeup, it'd help take some more velo off the pitch. I have such a hard time seeing how some pitchers have a hard time with throwing the changeup correctly. I played around with different grips while I started throwing again recently and realized basically how to throw a pretty nasty changeup. I always had the problem with the circle change of throwing it into the dirt because I was holding the ball to far back in my hand. But, if you can hold it on your finger tips, play around with where you place your thumb, you can do all sorts of things to the velocity and movement of the ball. Hold it as far away from the palm as possible while still having control of where you throw it, you can throw it as hard as you want, and all the pitch will do is spin and float on in.....

[BRobinsonfan]

Wow, that is a very tough question. I would probably take Arrieta as the pitcher, but not sure if I would take Wieters, Pie, or Jones as the second player. That is a tough call but I would probably have to go with Wieters.

You have criticized other pitchers in the past for what you call "Little League Syndrome" - that is their inability to pitch beyond the 7th inning. Yeet Arrieta is only averaging 5.5 innings per start... :scratchchinhmm:

[allstar1579]

Jake has a fastball, slider and curveball. The slider is thrown much harder and has slider movement on it, the curve is more of a 12-6 downer. The games where his changeup is working for him, he is at his best. He throws it too hard though quite often and I didn't see 1 changeup the whole night tonite from what I saw, though I wasn't watching every pitch...

I think he should try pronating some with the changeup, it'd help take some more velo off the pitch. I have such a hard time seeing how some pitchers have a hard time with throwing the changeup correctly. I played around with different grips while I started throwing again recently and realized basically how to throw a pretty nasty changeup. I always had the problem with the circle change of throwing it into the dirt because I was holding the ball to far back in my hand. But, if you can hold it on your finger tips, play around with where you place your thumb, you can do all sorts of things to the velocity and movement of the ball. Hold it as far away from the palm as possible while still having control of where you throw it, you can throw it as hard as you want, and all the pitch will do is spin and float on in.....

Yeah, I know what he has, I guess I meant his only 2 good pitches are his fastball and slider, so in important situations you can just sit on them cause you know he doesn't have the confidence to throw the other 2. I kinda wish he would work with Brian and get some tips on the change because something a bit more offspeed to counter the slider and fastball would really do wonders for him. He's got enough movement that when guys are sitting on his hard stuff he can still get away with it sometimes, but if he had a real change of speed pitch, a real good curve or change I think it would really help him in some situations.

[QBsILLEST1]

Yeah, I know what he has, I guess I meant his only 2 good pitches are his fastball and slider, so in important situations you can just sit on them cause you know he doesn't have the confidence to throw the other 2. I kinda wish he would work with Brian and get some tips on the change because something a bit more offspeed to counter the slider and fastball would really do wonders for him. He's got enough movement that when guys are sitting on his hard stuff he can still get away with it sometimes, but if he had a real change of speed pitch, a real good curve or change I think it would really help him in some situations.

The curveball is nasty, he throws it harder now than he did in the MiL. He throws all 3 of those pitches normally in games and then the changeup is from what I have seen, he has the least amount of confidence in. But, every once in a blue moon, he will throw a very good changeup. I recall him getting Carlos Pena swinging on a very nice changeup a handful of games ago that had about 9 MPH difference from his FB. I actually see him throw the curveball more than the slider recently(except for last night's game which I didn't pay much attention to). Curveball comes in in the mid 70's, slider in the low 80's.

His slider seems to be most inconsistent of all his pitches. This is directly related to his magically changing release point. Sometimes it looks like a cutter almost and has more east to west movement, but when it is at its best and what most people were considering to be "plus" is when it has both horizontal and vertical movement and has good late bite. But, I definitely see both the slider and curve thrown in every game and both pitches are of similar quality IMO....

[Frobby]

You have criticized other pitchers in the past for what you call "Little League Syndrome" - that is their inability to pitch beyond the 7th inning. Yeet Arrieta is only averaging 5.5 innings per start... :scratchchinhmm:

None of our young guys has set the world on fire in the IP/start department this year:

Bergesen 5.82

Matusz 5.58

Arrieta 5.50

Hernandez 5.26

Tillman 4.17

I feel that Bergesen is far ahead of the others in terms of ability to go really deep in a game on the days when he's pitching well.