O's not offering Koji arbitration

[Ven6]

I concur with most that this is a ridiculously bad decision, except for one caveat that I'll get to at the end of this post.

Do we think he'll get much more than 2 years/$5m?

Last year, 8 cases actually went to the arbitation panels. The clubs won 5 out of those 8 cases. The Orioles have never lost an arbitration case. One area Angelos spends his money well is legal representation. Koji was given the hefty contract to be a starter. Instead, he pitched 44 innings. He was not going to get a raise.

That's nice of Jeff to pass on what the O's want the fans to hear. Koji was not going to get a raise. This is a cheap decision unless...

... unless they have strong reason to believe his injury concerns are more serious than they have appeared to be. I don't think this is the case, but it's possible.

You're not correct here. Only 3 cases went to arb with FAs. You're confusing 3-6 year players. Oh, and all 3 got raises.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/free-agent-compensation.html

[Johnny]

Dude, I hope you aren't lumping me in with Sly.

naw, apologies if it read that way.

Just wanted to point out we could spend that money elsewhere and that losing Koji wouldn't be the end of the world. Work with me: he more than likely takes arb, so we probably don't get an extra pick anyway. Instead of a decent chance at a player who could help us in about 3 years, we get an oft-hurt reliever that we can replace with a more reliable option and/or resign at a better rate.

IMO, this isn't even a head scratcher and by no means a sign of stupidity as seems to be the gist of most of this thread.

[McNulty]

Bottom line is, you're comfortable paying at least 7 million for an injury-prone 35 year old closer on a losing team. AM is not. Glad he's in charge.

At least 7 million? Not even close dude. Check TakebackOPACY's post.

[GoldGlove21]

Here is the thing I do not understand, IF the Orioles offered him arbitration couldn't they resign up at any point leading up to the ruling? The downside to offering a player arbitration is that A.) The player goes to the hearing B.) Goes to the ruling and gets what they are asking for OR C.) Another team signs the player and you get a compensation pick.

The Orioles win in all three scenarios as long as they offer arbitration. Koji is the type of guy who would likely get $3.5M from the review board and would likely be worth that much. He was as good as anything else that is out there for that price. This seems like it would be an easy decision for the Orioles. You either get the guy at your price, you get him at an intermediate price, or you get compensation for losing him. This is a head scratcher.

[weams]

I concur with most that this is a ridiculously bad decision, except for one caveat that I'll get to at the end of this post.

Do we think he'll get much more than 2 years/$5m?

Last year, 8 cases actually went to the arbitation panels. The clubs won 5 out of those 8 cases. The Orioles have never lost an arbitration case. One area Angelos spends his money well is legal representation. Koji was given the hefty contract to be a starter. Instead, he pitched 44 innings. He was not going to get a raise.

That's nice of Jeff to pass on what the O's want the fans to hear. Koji was not going to get a raise. This is a cheap decision unless...

... unless they have strong reason to believe his injury concerns are more serious than they have appeared to be. I don't think this is the case, but it's possible.

Good logic. Unfortunately because he was a starter for a bit, he was a type B free agent. They get raises. So if the Orioles want to keep Russell Unblemished...their offer is SIX million.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Agreed, we need Koji to close, get it done now MacPhail.

AMEN

I love Koji!

[sangar]

While I'll freely admit to being dumbfounded by this I'm in the group that reserves judgement untill the dust has setteled. There has been a good point made about the O's perhaps believing that both would accept and they would rather apply the money toward a bat(s). If they come out with big offers for Beltre and a 1B then this quite likely was the case. Let's wait and see before we pronounce them 'stupid'.

[DrungoHazewood]

Bottom line is, you're comfortable paying at least 7 million for an injury-prone 35 year old closer on a losing team. AM is not. Glad he's in charge.

a) He's not getting $7M in arbitration.

b) Even if he was, it would be worth the risk given than a sandwich pick is worth at least several million dollars on average.

The only way this is halfway justifiable is if they end up resigning him to a very favorable contract.

[Sports Guy]

I dislike this move too - but what if it works out that the Orioles DO sign him to an incentive laden one-year deal thus saving money and still retaining Koji?

I mean does it not become a moot point?

No it doesn't..There is no outcome that makes this a moot point because as of today, you never know what could happen. Some team could swoop in at the last minute and offer him a crazy contract.

[RVAbird]

Bottom line is, you're comfortable paying at least 7 million for an injury-prone 35 year old closer on a losing team. AM is not. Glad he's in charge.

a) He's not getting $7M in arbitration.

b) Even if he was, it would be worth the risk given than a sandwich pick is worth at least several million dollars on average.

The only way this is halfway justifiable is if they end up resigning him to a very favorable contract.

No it doesn't..There is no outcome that makes this a moot point because as of today, you never know what could happen. Some team could swoop in at the last minute and offer him a crazy contract.

I'll go one step further than Drungo and agree with SG here. Signing Koji later on does not justify this decision or even make it moot.

It is a poor decision on its own because it gives us the risk of having no compensation and no Koji. I'd have to hear his signing announced tomorrow for this to be okay.

[Sports Guy]

I'll go one step further than Drungo and agree with SG here. Signing Koji later on does not justify this decision or even make it moot.

It is a poor decision on its own because it gives us the risk of having no compensation and no Koji. I'd have to hear his signing announced tomorrow for this to be okay.

Even that's not enough for me.

He would have to be in Baltimore to pass a physical for this to be ok..meaning, the contract is already done as of today.

Not done tommorrow but today.

Because some team could jump in at the last minute...his name needs to be on the dotted line right now for this to be justifiable.

[Johnny]

No it doesn't..There is no outcome that makes this a moot point because as of today, you never know what could happen. Some team could swoop in at the last minute and offer him a crazy contract.

Yeah, some moron could offer him like $6-7 million to close the games his hamstrings allow.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, some moron could offer him like $6-7 million to close the games his hamstrings allow.

Did you think the Mike Gonzalez contract was a good one?

[TakebackOPACY]

You're not correct here. Only 3 cases went to arb with FAs. You're confusing 3-6 year players. Oh, and all 3 got raises.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/free-agent-compensation.html

I was correct and I didn't confuse anything. Eight cases went to arbitration panels last year. The clubs won five of them. None of those cases were FA's. I never said, nor did I mean to imply, that they were.

When you say three cases went to arb with FAs, I assume you're referring to the three FA players who accepted arbitration. Actually, none of their cases went to arbitration panels.

Rafael Soriano: The surprise amongst those who accepted arbitration. He was then traded to the Rays who inked him to the big 1-year deal. I don't think the Braves are upset that they offered him arbitration. They got some players out of it.

Carl Pavano: After accepting arbitration, he agreed with the Twins on a 1-year $7m contract. Of course he was going to get a raise. He only had $1.5m guaranteed in 2009. Didn't you say Koji is going to get $7m? Pavano agreed to $7m after being a starter for the Twins in a short playoff series.

Rafael Betancourt: He received a 'raise' when Colorado signed him to a two-year/ $7.55m deal. Do we really think Koji is going to get 1-year/$7m from an arbitration panel or anyone else? The reason I put 'raise' in single quotes is because Betancourt had a 2010 club option for $5.4m that wasn't picked up.

[TakebackOPACY]

I'll go one step further than Drungo and agree with SG here. Signing Koji later on does not justify this decision or even make it moot.

It is a poor decision on its own because it gives us the risk of having no compensation and no Koji. I'd have to hear his signing announced tomorrow for this to be okay.

Philosophically, what these guys (in this case, RVAbird and SG) are saying is that the proper way to judge a decision is based on the full knowledge that is available now. You can't wait until everything pans out and then look back with hindsight.

So (like Arthur B and Drungo said earlier) unless they have a good explanation that the risk/reward is different than it seems to be, this decision doesn't make a whole lot of sense.