O's not offering Koji arbitration

[Hank Scorpio]

Not really. They could have offered him arbitration, seen him decline, and still signed him later to a contract that both sides agreed to. The only difference is that we risk having nothing to show for losing him now.

Here's a somewhat defensible scenario: Koji wants to return to Baltimore, and Baltimore wants him back. They have made ground in contract talks, but haven't quite made an agreement yet. Still, it seems a deal is likely to get done. Koji's agent, however, has said to BAL: don't offer us arbitration, we won't accept it and it will just be an insult at this point since we have made it clear what kind of contract we are looking for.

But, that scenario doesn't make too much sense. If Koji were a type A, it would. He wouldn't want BAL offering arbitration because, if he declined, it would reduce the amount he would get on the market. I could see that angering Koji's camp if they were fairly close in negotiations.

However, being a type B, I can't imagine it would really matter at all to Koji or his agent. It would be like BAL saying, "we want you back, we want to continue to try to hammer out a deal, but in the event that you decline and elect to go elsewhere, we need some insurance that we wouldn't be left empty-handed. It won't affect you or the team you go to in any way."

I'm reaching, here, and I still can't defend this move.

I'm simply saying if there is already a deal in place, it's a moot point.

[Sports Guy]

We don't know the details of whether or not they have a deal in place.

Let's not miss the bowl while urinating, here.

Because they don't matter.

Deals fall apart right at the end all the time..This gives you a security blanket and does nothing to hurt the value of Koji whatsoever.

There isn't one good reason for this..Its just the Orioles being cheap and idiotic.

[RVAbird]

I'm simply saying if there is already a deal in place, it's a moot point.

If there's a deal already in place, then yes.

But if the Orioles re-sign Koji a month from now to a one-year with an option deal, it doesn't excuse this. This is insurance in case a deal doesn't get done.

[Ven6]

Folks of the OH, you're killing me. Outrage is one thing, getting the basics wrong is another. Koji would get a decent raise. The O's want to sign him to a cheaper, incentive laden deal. Koji would've accepted arb, and the O's would have overpayed. Here's Jeff Z of the Sun on the subject:

Jeff Z's reply: There is a lot going on now and I'll try to blog more about it tomorrow. Essentially, the O's feel that Uehara would have accepted the offer and been given a decent raise on the $5 million that he made last season. They don't feel comfortable paying him that much knowing his injury problems over the past two seasons. THey'd prefer to get him back on a one-year, incentive-laden deal.

[Sports Guy]

Folks of the OH, you're killing me. Outrage is one thing, getting the basics wrong is another. Koji would get a decent raise. The O's want to sign him to a cheaper, incentive laden deal. Koji would've accepted arb, and the O's would have overpayed. Here's Jeff Z of the Sun on the subject:

Jeff Z's reply: There is a lot going on now and I'll try to blog more about it tomorrow. Essentially, the O's feel that Uehara would have accepted the offer and been given a decent raise on the $5 million that he made last season. They don't feel comfortable paying him that much knowing his injury problems over the past two seasons. THey'd prefer to get him back on a one-year, incentive-laden deal.

Well, either Jeff Z is getting wrong info or the Orioles are poor. Either way, this doesn't make me(or probably anyone else) feel any better.

BTW everyone, there is your reasoning and justification from the Orioles.

[Johnny]

44 innings last year, he was worth 5.5 million according to Fangraphs. Was worth over 7 the year before. If he stayed healthy (big if, but the potential is there), he'd be worth much more.

'Sound Investment'...I mean that its a good bet he'll be worth 5-6 million next year. And its a one year deal. If he falls apart, its not a huge problem.

Again, no downside.

Take a look at the potential costs and you'll see a downside:

I don't see how you can sum up Koji Uehara's tenure here and say there's potential for him to stay healthy. For $5-6 million we could get another reliever -another very good one like Koji- who tends to pitch the whole year (for instance, didn't Benoit just get that kind of money?). Or we could spend it in an area of more pressing need.

Of course, if this is just a salary dump and we don't throw this and Millwood's $ at something -click- real nice, I'll jump on the old "This-is-strait-horse-####-from-an-incompetent-waste-of-time-for-a-GM-who-never-makes-a-good-move-and-had-the-audacity-to-cut-Moore-after-only-three-years-and-wont-sign-Kotchman-who-could-be-the-answer," bandwagon, I swear.

[theobird]

Take a look at the potential costs and you'll see a downside:

I don't see how you can sum up Koji Uehara's tenure here and say there's potential for him to stay healthy. For $5-6 million we could get another reliever -another very good one like Koji- who tends to pitch the whole year (for instance, didn't Benoit just get that kind of money?). Or we could spend it in an area of more pressing need.

Of course, if this is just a salary dump and we don't throw this and Millwood's $ at something -click- real nice, I'll jump on the old "This-is-strait-horse-####-from-an-incompetent-waste-of-time-for-a-GM-who-never-makes-a-good-move-and-had-the-audacity-to-cut-Moore-after-only-three-years-and-wont-sign-Kotchman-who-could-be-the-answer," bandwagon, I swear.

Now that is some funny material.:laughlol:

[Stotle]

Vazquez and the Yanks did it.

Boston does it with certain players, though it's easier to get that gentlemen's agreement when players really want to be a part of your organization.

[weams]

Sports Guy and JTrea are in agreement on this. I think that says it all right there. There is no gray area.

Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

[McNulty]

Take a look at the potential costs and you'll see a downside:

I don't see how you can sum up Koji Uehara's tenure here and say there's potential for him to stay healthy. For $5-6 million we could get another reliever -another very good one like Koji- who tends to pitch the whole year (for instance, didn't Benoit just get that kind of money?). Or we could spend it in an area of more pressing need.

Of course, if this is just a salary dump and we don't throw this and Millwood's $ at something -click- real nice, I'll jump on the old "This-is-strait-horse-####-from-an-incompetent-waste-of-time-for-a-GM-who-never-makes-a-good-move-and-had-the-audacity-to-cut-Moore-after-only-three-years-and-wont-sign-Kotchman-who-could-be-the-answer," bandwagon, I swear.

Dude, I hope you aren't lumping me in with Sly.

[SilentJames]

Well, either Jeff Z is getting wrong info or the Orioles are poor. Either way, this doesn't make me(or probably anyone else) feel any better.

BTW everyone, there is your reasoning and justification from the Orioles.

I dislike this move too - but what if it works out that the Orioles DO sign him to an incentive laden one-year deal thus saving money and still retaining Koji?

I mean does it not become a moot point?

[e16bball]

Folks of the OH, you're killing me. Outrage is one thing, getting the basics wrong is another. Koji would get a decent raise. The O's want to sign him to a cheaper, incentive laden deal. Koji would've accepted arb, and the O's would have overpayed. Here's Jeff Z of the Sun on the subject:

Jeff Z's reply: There is a lot going on now and I'll try to blog more about it tomorrow. Essentially, the O's feel that Uehara would have accepted the offer and been given a decent raise on the $5 million that he made last season.

Okay, so that's what they think. How much of a raise could that possibly be? I'm going to say there's absolutely no way it goes anywhere higher than $7M.

Two FA relievers have gotten more than $7M on a one-year deal since 2006. One was Rafael Soriano in 2009 (7.25M) and one was Eric Gagne in 2007 (10.0M). Unless Koji's representation somehow has magical powers of mind-control, a comparison to Gagne will be laughed out of the arbitration room. So the absolute most favorable comp they could present is Soriano. Who was much younger and had a longer track record of MLB success.

If the O's offered $5.5M, Koji absolutely could not go higher than about $7M or he'd be guaranteeing a loss.

They don't feel comfortable paying him that much knowing his injury problems over the past two seasons. THey'd prefer to get him back on a one-year, incentive-laden deal.

Of course they would.

And when someone comes along and offers him a non-incentive-laden deal with an option for a second year to pitch on a competitive team instead of a cellar-dweller, I'm sure they'll be "very disappointed" that Koji didn't decide to stick around for "what they thought was a fair and reasonable offer." And the Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays will take another step ahead of us.

Their thinking doesn't mesh. On one side of the coin, they think Koji will accept arbitration. Further, they think they can lock him up to a one-year, incentive-laden deal. Clearly, then, they don't think he's going to have much of a market. But on the other side of the coin, they think an arbitration panel is going to give him something "decently" greater than $5M? If not one ML team thinks Koji is worth more than a 1-year, incentive-laden deal, why on earth would the arbitration panel think he's worth a guaranteed salary in the Rafael Soriano/Eric Gagne range?

[weams]

I dislike this move too - but what if it works out that the Orioles DO sign him to an incentive laden one-year deal thus saving money and still retaining Koji?

I mean does it not become a moot point?

I STILL say we will get Steve Johnson Back...

[TakebackOPACY]

I concur with most that this is a ridiculously bad decision, except for one caveat that I'll get to at the end of this post.

Yep....if he wants a multi-year deal, then he isn't going to go for a 1/5 type deal.

Do we think he'll get much more than 2 years/$5m?

This.

And a note to point 1: players get raises in arbitration.

Last year, 8 cases actually went to the arbitation panels. The clubs won 5 out of those 8 cases. The Orioles have never lost an arbitration case. One area Angelos spends his money well is legal representation. Koji was given the hefty contract to be a starter. Instead, he pitched 44 innings. He was not going to get a raise.

Folks of the OH, you're killing me. Outrage is one thing, getting the basics wrong is another. Koji would get a decent raise. The O's want to sign him to a cheaper, incentive laden deal. Koji would've accepted arb, and the O's would have overpayed. Here's Jeff Z of the Sun on the subject:

Jeff Z's reply: There is a lot going on now and I'll try to blog more about it tomorrow. Essentially, the O's feel that Uehara would have accepted the offer and been given a decent raise on the $5 million that he made last season. They don't feel comfortable paying him that much knowing his injury problems over the past two seasons. THey'd prefer to get him back on a one-year, incentive-laden deal.

That's nice of Jeff to pass on what the O's want the fans to hear. Koji was not going to get a raise. This is a cheap decision unless...

... unless they have strong reason to believe his injury concerns are more serious than they have appeared to be. I don't think this is the case, but it's possible.

[Ven6]

Okay, so that's what they think. How much of a raise could that possibly be? I'm going to say there's absolutely no way it goes anywhere higher than $7M.

Two FA relievers have gotten more than $7M on a one-year deal since 2006. One was Rafael Soriano in 2009 (7.25M) and one was Eric Gagne in 2007 (10.0M). Unless Koji's representation somehow has magical powers of mind-control, a comparison to Gagne will be laughed out of the arbitration room. So the absolute most favorable comp they could present is Soriano. Who was much younger and had a longer track record of MLB success.

If the O's offered $5.5M, Koji absolutely could not go higher than about $7M or he'd be guaranteeing a loss.

Of course they would.

And when someone comes along and offers him a non-incentive-laden deal with an option for a second year to pitch on a competitive team instead of a cellar-dweller, I'm sure they'll be "very disappointed" that Koji didn't decide to stick around for "what they thought was a fair and reasonable offer."

And the Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays will take another step ahead of us.

Bottom line is, you're comfortable paying at least 7 million for an injury-prone 35 year old closer on a losing team. AM is not. Glad he's in charge.