Reporting in

[rolliefingers]

First of all Tejada's numbers are no where near Ortiz's.

Ortiz has 37 HR compared to 19.

Ortiz has 105 RBI compared to 77.

Ortiz has a 1.011 OPS compared to .894.

...And that's what I'm saying, Future Owner.

[davearm]

No, he's not, and he's not a better player either. You will be hard pressed to make upi Tejadas production on a team by replacing him with another player at a traditonal power position such as LF or 1B, while replacing him at SS.

For instance:

Tejada/Gibbons>

Ortiz/Gonzales

Pujols/Eckstein

etc

Baseball Prospectus would disagree with you, based on the WARP values of the guys you listed.

In terms of 03-05 average, combined wins:

Tejada + Gibbons is a hair lower than Ortiz + Gonzalez... about half a win or so. That's pretty much a wash.

Tejada + Gibbons is significantly lower than Pujols + Eckstein... almost 5 wins.

[FutureOwner]

Ok which would you rather have Gibbons at 1B, and Ortiz at DH or Tejada at SS and Gibbons at DH?

That's essentially what you are asking. You act as if we had Ortiz and not Tejada that we wouldnt still have Gibbons.

You act as if Tejada at SS, and Gibbons at DH/1B prevents us from finding another offensive player to fill the other spot that Gibbons does not.

You would create an offensive hole at a position we have our greatest advantage to fill a need that is much easier to find?

Where is this DH available who is of Ortiz' caliber? Im fairly certain we could find a bat to DH and fill in a couple times a week at another position who will be adequate offensively.

I honestly wish theyd just gotten Abreu and moved Gibbons to DH, we wouldnt be having this conversation.

The DH situation is not permanant, if we were to trade Tejada, the offensive hole at SS likley could be.

[Fan4Life]

Tejada is by7 far the best player at one of the most important positions. Hard to name 5 position players you would trade straight up for him.

The O's need more guys LIKE tejada, not less.

APPLAUSE......

[erb8472]

Baseball Prospectus would disagree with you, based on the WARP values of the guys you listed.

In terms of 03-05 average, combined wins:

Tejada + Gibbons is a hair lower than Ortiz + Gonzalez... about half a win or so. That's pretty much a wash.

Tejada + Gibbons is significantly lower than Pujols + Eckstein... almost 5 wins.

This whole argument about Tejada being a top 5 player in baseball is for the birds or should it be Orioles?

Do it this way if you are starting a franchise and you can pick any player. I'd say at least 5 guys get picked in front of Tejada.

[erb8472]

You act as if Tejada at SS, and Gibbons at DH/1B prevents us from finding another offensive player to fill the other spot that Gibbons does not.

You would create an offensive hole at a position we have our greatest advantage to fill a need that is much easier to find?

Where is this DH available who is of Ortiz' caliber? Im fairly certain we could find a bat to DH and fill in a couple times a week at another position who will be adequate offensively.

I honestly wish theyd just gotten Abreu and moved Gibbons to DH, we wouldnt be having this conversation.

The DH situation is not permanant, if we were to trade Tejada, the offensive hole at SS likley could be.

Wood in two years would be offensivley capable of putting up Tejada like numbers IMO.

Aybar already would be a lot better defensivley, and is no slouch with the bat.

Then you throw in a top of the rotation starter to go with that, and that's all we are saying.

The Orioles are not going to be able to compete in two years realistically anyway, unless they spend some big money, and I think we'd all be suprised if they decide to do that.

[NoVaO]

I absolutely DO NOT think so because ITS EASIER TO FIND A SERVICABLE DH THAN IT IS AN OFFENSIVELY GIFTED SS.

When Gibbons is healthy enough to play at DH Id certainly take him and Tejada over Ortiz and a below avg offensive SS.

Why would you rather have ONE great bat than ONE great bat and one SOLID bat?

It doesn't matter whether Ortiz/Fahey is better than Tejada/Gibbons. All that matters is if Tejada is better than Santana/Aybar.

Aybar, at the age of 22 and in AAA, currently has an over .850 OPS, and developing power. You can project that he will have anywhere from a .730 - .850 OPS in the majors, giving you 5 - 15 homeruns, and a lot of doubles and triples. If he develops right, he may be even better. If he reaches his full potential, he will be an upper tier shortstop who is only a small drop off from Tejada. The fact that he is MLB ready right now only increases those chances that he will be a productive major league player.

In this you get a guy in Ervin Santana who immediately becomes your #2 starter, and is already an MLB top-40 starter at the age of 23. He has the potential to become an ace on our team, which means we would have two top of the rotation starters as of next year.

You also clear Tejada's $12 million salary, and that allows you to go out and get two good players or one very good player during free agency. That doesn't even count our normal payroll increases and the money that comes off the books this year.

Also, with Santana in our control, we now can trade one or two of our young pitchers for other young, proven talent that can fill other holes in our organization.

With Tejada, we lose a lot of our flexibility. His salary prohibits us from going out and spending a ton of money on free agents, and by not adding Santana, we are still searching for two more pitchers to step up as starters, which makes it more difficult for us to trade any of our young pitchers.

[FutureOwner]

You are crazy if you don't think Santana and Wood would help us more than Tejada.

Wood has how many ML AB's? He looks good, but you are saying WOULD. Santana is a solid young pitcher, but he isnt a phenom. His ERA is over 4. He could get much better or he could be a #3 starter, we have no idea?

Those two guys are potentially better than having Tejada, just as our young starters are potentially going to be the second coming of the Braves staff. None of that is guaranteed to happen, and if we traded Tejada for a guy who never makes an AS team at SS and a #3 starter is that something that helped?

[rolliefingers]

Wood in two years would be offensivley capable of putting up Tejada like numbers IMO.

Aybar already would be a lot better defensivley, and is no slouch with the bat.

Then you throw in a top of the rotation starter to go with that, and that's all we are saying.

The Orioles are not going to be able to compete in two years realistically anyway, unless they spend some big money, and I think we'd all be suprised if they decide to do that.

Future Owner, I think you are discounting this bolded part quite a bit.

[davearm]

This whole argument about Tejada being a top 5 player in baseball is for the birds or should it be Orioles?

Do it this way if you are starting a franchise and you can pick any player. I'd say at least 5 guys get picked in front of Tejada.

FWIW, BP also tells us that Tejada is ranked #11 amongst position players this year in VORP. Naturally that doesn't include any pitchers.

Now the "pick any player to start a franchise" question is a whole different animal. Many guys that are underperforming Tejada this season would obviously get picked ahead of Tejada... Wright, Mauer, Bay, Howard, etc.

[FutureOwner]

This whole argument about Tejada being a top 5 player in baseball is for the birds or should it be Orioles?

Do it this way if you are starting a franchise and you can pick any player. I'd say at least 5 guys get picked in front of Tejada.

The first half of the seaosn last year, when the Orioles were in 1st place everyone was saying he was THE BEST IN BASEBALL OVERALL. What has changed? He's still putting up the numbers. His defense hasnt suffered as much as people try to make it out to be, thats sounds like a trendy thing to say that has caught wind.

[erb8472]

Wood has how many ML AB's? He looks good, but you are saying WOULD. Santana is a solid young pitcher, but he isnt a phenom. His ERA is over 4. He could get much better or he could be a #3 starter, we have no idea?

Those two guys are potentially better than having Tejada, just as our young starters are potentially going to be the second coming of the Braves staff. None of that is guaranteed to happen, and if we traded Tejada for a guy who never makes an AS team at SS and a #3 starter is that something that helped?

You have the same problem that it appears the FO has.

They know that they have there hands tied with salary.

The only chance this team has is if they take a chance on some highly touted prospects panning out.

I'll be the first to admit that prospects don't always pan out. Wouldn't you rather take a chance on some highly sought prospect and very good young starter, than watch the FO try to keep their heads above .500 with Tejada in town.

[erb8472]

FWIW, BP also tells us that Tejada is ranked #11 amongst position players this year in VORP. Naturally that doesn't include any pitchers.

Now the "pick any player to start a franchise" question is a whole different animal. Many guys that are underperforming Tejada this season would obviously get picked ahead of Tejada... Wright, Mauer, Bay, Howard, etc.

Well still no matter how you slice it Tejada is not a top 5 player. He is a great player and the arguably the best SS in baseball, but he is not a top 5 player.

[OmahaDaveRudaba]

First of all Tejada's numbers are no where near Ortiz's.

Ortiz has 37 HR compared to 19.

Ortiz has 105 RBI compared to 77.

Ortiz has a 1.011 OPS compared to .894.

Is there a way to see how many more AB's w/ RISP Ortiz has. That could be a factor.

[erb8472]

The first half of the seaosn last year, when the Orioles were in 1st place everyone was saying he was THE BEST IN BASEBALL OVERALL. What has changed? He's still putting up the numbers. His defense hasnt suffered as much as people try to make it out to be, thats sounds like a trendy thing to say that has caught wind.

Anybody who would call somebody the best player in baseball after just half a season, doesn't know what they are talking about. The Orioles in general were one of the best teams in baseball the first half of the season last year. How did that end up?

His defense is on the decline. If you want to admit it that's up to you, but where do you think it's going to be at in two more years.

All i'm saying, along with others, is that the chances of this team competing over the course of Tejadas contract are much lower than they would be if we used Tejada to fill a few holes.