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[Fan4Life]

Well still no matter how you slice it Tejada is not a top 5 player. He is a great player and the arguably the best SS in baseball, but he is not a top 5 player.

Would you go so far as to say he is a top five player over the last 3 years?

[rolliefingers]

The first half of the seaosn last year, when the Orioles were in 1st place everyone was saying he was THE BEST IN BASEBALL OVERALL. What has changed? He's still putting up the numbers. His defense hasnt suffered as much as people try to make it out to be, thats sounds like a trendy thing to say that has caught wind.

On July 9, 2005, Tejada had a .980 OPS, after spending much of the year over 1.000. On October 2, it was .867. Today it's .895.

That's what's changed.

[rolliefingers]

Anybody who would call somebody the best player in baseball after just half a season, doesn't know what they are talking about. The Orioles in general were one of the best teams in baseball the first half of the season last year. How did that end up?

His defense is on the decline. If you want to admit it that's up to you, but where do you think it's going to be at in two more years.

All i'm saying, along with others, is that the chances of this team competing over the course of Tejadas contract are much lower than they would be if we used Tejada to fill a few holes.

Well, in all honesty, I remember posting last year that AT THAT MOMENT, Tejada MIGHT have been the best player in baseball. Look at the numbers - they bear that statement out.

Since then, he has clearly declined. He's still a very good player, but I don't think he's in the top 5 anymore, maybe not even top-10.

[CrimsonTribe]

So we'd be better off with a SS hitting .260 with 3 HR and a sub .700 OPS and a DH putting up Tejadas numbers than with Gibbons at DH and Tejada at SS?

How does that make sense? DH is much easier to improve than SS offensively. Having an above avg offensive SS makes it easier to improve at other positions because the offense you bring at those position doesnt have to carry as much weight.

It wouldnt be hard to find a DH who can put up an OPS over .800 BUT THERE ARE FEW SS who can.

You are not making sense

Yet somehow it is hard for us.

[clapdiddy]

It doesn't matter whether Ortiz/Fahey is better than Tejada/Gibbons. All that matters is if Tejada is better than Santana/Aybar.

Aybar, at the age of 22 and in AAA, currently has an over .850 OPS, and developing power. You can project that he will have anywhere from a .730 - .850 OPS in the majors, giving you 5 - 15 homeruns, and a lot of doubles and triples. If he develops right, he may be even better. If he reaches his full potential, he will be an upper tier shortstop who is only a small drop off from Tejada. The fact that he is MLB ready right now only increases those chances that he will be a productive major league player.

In this you get a guy in Ervin Santana who immediately becomes your #2 starter, and is already an MLB top-40 starter at the age of 23. He has the potential to become an ace on our team, which means we would have two top of the rotation starters as of next year.

You also clear Tejada's $12 million salary, and that allows you to go out and get two good players or one very good player during free agency. That doesn't even count our normal payroll increases and the money that comes off the books this year.

Also, with Santana in our control, we now can trade one or two of our young pitchers for other young, proven talent that can fill other holes in our organization.

With Tejada, we lose a lot of our flexibility. His salary prohibits us from going out and spending a ton of money on free agents, and by not adding Santana, we are still searching for two more pitchers to step up as starters, which makes it more difficult for us to trade any of our young pitchers.

Great post NoVA O. This sums up my feelings about this whole non-deal.

If we had the ability to go out and add 3 or 4 more 10 million dollar players, then, yes, hold on to Tejada. We obviously don't have those types of resources. I personally liked most of Davearm's suggestions in the "You be the GM" thread.

His team was between 74 and 80 million and could be extremely competitive without Tejada.

I think the big thing is...and I've said this before...the more young players we have under our control, the better off we are. If we deal for young talent, that talent doesn't have a choice of playing with the Orioles. Santana would have been here through at least 2010. We've got to look at the future.

[Fan4Life]

Well, in all honesty, I remember posting last year that AT THAT MOMENT, Tejada MIGHT have been the best player in baseball. Look at the numbers - they bear that statement out.

Since then, he has clearly declined. He's still a very good player, but I don't think he's in the top 5 anymore, maybe not even top-10.

Well some of this kind of rating will be subective and in the eye of the beholder... he's hitting about .330 and an OBP of about .400. You put some protection in that lineup, heck even if Gibbons had stayed healthy, or Javy had any kind of stroke, I think you'd see those areas that seem to be in the decline, improved upon significantly. My view on him is he's a top 5 player the last 3.5 years... ARod, Vlad(injuries), Delgado, Bonds(Injuries), Ortiz, I think he's in there... and with the current stats where they are, you should expect to be blown away in a trade... now again.. if you want to presume Angelos will not spend the money this offfseason like every other... then, we're trying to field the best-least costly team we can and thus he should have been traded.

[erb8472]

Is there a way to see how many more AB's w/ RISP Ortiz has. That could be a factor.

Tejada has 112 AB with RISP, Ortiz has 121 AB.

[Sports Guy]

Aybar may end up being Jose Reyes. He is a very similar player.

[erb8472]

Aybar may end up being Jose Reyes. He is a very similar player.

Another example for a guy Aybar could be is the thought to be light hitting Hanley Ramirez.

[Just Regular]

Aybar may end up being Jose Reyes. He is a very similar player.

I thought about this comparison too leading up to the deadline; I never posted anything, but the most I could convince myself of was that he'd be a poor man's Jose Reyes.

They are only about 6 months different in age, but Reyes has already done so much more with the bat and is actually an efficient basestealer.

I agree about them being the same style of player, with the athleticism, steals, triples, switch hitting, etc.

[Sports Guy]

I thought about this comparison too leading up to the deadline; I never posted anything, but the most I could convince myself of was that he'd be a poor man's Jose Reyes.

They are only about 6 months different in age, but Reyes has already done so much more with the bat and is actually an efficient basestealer.

I agree about them being the same style of player, with the athleticism, steals, triples, switch hitting, etc.

YEa, Reyes is ahead of them because of age but Aybar's minor league stats were more impressive..Again at an older age.

But i still think Aybar can be very similar to Reyes.

[El Gordo]

This whole argument about Tejada being a top 5 player in baseball is for the birds or should it be Orioles?

Do it this way if you are starting a franchise and you can pick any player. I'd say at least 5 guys get picked in front of Tejada.

And the first name to come to mind was Pujols, then as much as I didn't like it, the next name was ARod but only if I could play him at SS. Then I thought of J. Santana. After that I kept thinking what's the most important position to fill? SS came to mind at once. Right now Tejada is still one of the first names I come up with there, along with Reyes. He mignt just be 5 or 6.

[El Gordo]

It always cracks me up when the old "the O's don't NEED to trade him" rationale come out in these Tejada discussions.

Nor do they NEED to finish above .500. And recent history indicates they won't, either, until some major roster changes are made.

JMHO, but there's no realistic way to achieve major roster changes without making a Tejada trade the centerpiece.

The reason we won't finish above .500 is because two pitchers we expected to be at least league average weren't and one we were hoping would improve regressed. If they had met reasonable expectations we'd be above .500 even with the likes of Millar and Conine. That doesn't seem to me to warrant a complete overhaul.

[mikezpen]

I agree that the team doesn't need a complete overhaul. Making this team good is do-able. And that's what makes me so furious when I see them doing next to nothing.It's like ownership is telling us, "I'll spend only so much money so you'll win 75 games maybe. If the minors take the team the rest of the way, great. Otherwise, too bad.I'm not investing anything more."

[Nuclear Dish]

- Boston is interestred in Javy but depends if he passes thru waivers. If he's claimed we'll let him go to get off the hook for salary.

So now I've read all 11 pages of this thread, and there wasn't even the first word about the one thing that intrigued me from BB's post (bolded above).

How much salary could we be talking about saving by just letting Javy walk? He gets $8.5M this year? And there's less than 1/3 of the season to go? So, by my calculation, we'll save just under $3M?

Are we assuming that we've devalued Javy's value so much that we wouldn't get any additional draft picks if he left? Are we assuming we'd fail to offer arbitration in any case, so we wouldn't be entitled to whatever pick(s) we'd get for him? Or are we being ridiculously shortsighted over a couple mil?

If he clears, by all means deal him for something if you can get something decent. But don't just let him walk unless there's little hope that we could get a pick for him.

Unless maybe they take the $3M and put enough of it toward signing a guy we drafted and are unlikely to sign like Watson.