Orioles Primed for Second Place Finish

[BRob411]

Compelling argument. Somebody earlier in the thread asked me to do the comparisons, so I did them. Be quiet.

I won't be quiet, I'll keep talking all the way. I'm fired up about this team and I refuse to be pessimistic like some people on here. We have a manager who believes this team can win and I'm right there with him.

[Crazysilver03]

You can do your silly little comparisons all you want, you're not Ms. Cleo so this is overrated. That's why they play the game on the field my friend. The O's have the better manager by the way and it's not even close.

You can make your silly little posts all you want, but that is why this is a message board for discussion. I don't see the need to attack these posts.

Maybe if you actually provided some discussion.

[BRob411]

You can make your silly little posts all you want, but that is why this is a message board for discussion. I don't see the need to attack these posts.

Maybe if you actually provided some discussion.

You're right I don't need to attack people on this board, so you all can have you're pessimistic predictions all you want. Buck will have this team believing they can do anything and that's what counts not your predictions or opinions. As of right now, I'm leaving Orioles Hangout, I hope that makes you all happy.

[Crazysilver03]

I won't be quiet, I'll keep talking all the way. I'm fired up about this team and I refuse to be pessimistic like some people on here. We have a manager who believes this team can win and I'm right there with him.

You're right I don't need to attack people on this board, so you all can have you're pessimistic predictions all you want. Buck will have this team believing they can do anything and that's what counts not your predictions or opinions. As of right now, I'm leaving Orioles Hangout, I hope that makes you all happy.

This place can handle both pessimistic and optimistic views. They only clash when a poster doesn't want to listen to the other side of the argument.

Don't let maturity hit you on the way out.

[El Gordo]

You're right I don't need to attack people on this board, so you all can have you're pessimistic predictions all you want. Buck will have this team believing they can do anything and that's what counts not your predictions or opinions. As of right now, I'm leaving Orioles Hangout, I hope that makes you all happy.

I rarely negative rep anybody, but as long as you continue to be annoying, I am going to continue to negative rep you.:angryfire:

[crawjo]

You're right I don't need to attack people on this board, so you all can have you're pessimistic predictions all you want. Buck will have this team believing they can do anything and that's what counts not your predictions or opinions. As of right now, I'm leaving Orioles Hangout, I hope that makes you all happy.

I don't see myself as a pessimist. I see myself as a realist. We are in the toughest division in baseball. Everybody knows about the Red Sox and Yankees, but both Tampa and Toronto are smart organizations that draft well and generally make good decisions. So often in the past people have discounted Toronto but they have a good core of young pitchers, which is why I'm not ready to just assume they will lay over and play dead in 2011.

I think the Orioles improved themselves more than any other team in the division. I also think, if I had to bet, they'll finish in last. That's the nature of the AL East. If we were in a different division I might be able to buy the argument that we could legitimately contend for a playoff spot this year, but as long as we're playing Boston, New York, Tampa and Toronto as often as we do, it's going to be awfully tough.

I'm more excited about this year than I've been at any time in a long while. I legitimately think the Orioles have a chance to move out of the cellar, maybe as high as third place. My hope is that whatever improvements do come arrive not only because we picked up good veterans on 1-year deals but also because our young players, especially Wieters, Jones, Matusz, Britton, and Arrieta, put together good seasons and make real progress as major league players. If they do that, then I'll be even more psyched for 2012.

[Frobby]

I don't see myself as a pessimist. I see myself as a realist.

Not directed at you in particular, but don't all pessimists view themselves as realists? And so do most optimists.

To me, realism is recognizing that a lot of different outcomes are possible in baseball, and that the most likely one isn't always the one that occurs. That allows the optimist in me to hope that things break our way, and in that case, yes I think second place is possible. Just not probable.

[Chevytrckman3]

Just curious as to why alot of people consider TB to be in the upper tier of the AL East still, and easily dismiss the Orioles as an 80-83 win team at best? I'm not saying the O's are a contender, though my heart as a fan says "Hell Yeah" this team can contend.

The Yankees are showing signs of aging in A-Rod, Posada, and Jeter. And i've read opinions that feel Teixiera is starting his decline. Their pitching is suspect, though i feel they have a solid BP.

Boston looks like on paper they will dominate, but who knows. Big Papi is getting older, as is Drew. Beckett has declined and their BP doesn't look to good on paper. And alot of experts say that moving to a new league will hurt Reynolds, but feel Adrian Gonzalez won't be affected?

TB lost Crawford and Pena. They signed Manny and Damon, but I feel that won't equal what they lost. They traded Bartlett and lost their entire BP basically. They still have a good rotation, but I think their offense will negate that alot.

Toronto, while doing a good job in ridding themselves of Wells black hole of a contract, seems to have thrown in the towel for 2011 in hopes of the future.

On paper, I feel 1-9 anyway, the O's have the potential to have a better offense then the Yankees and i think will hold their own against Bos. I don't thin it's out of the realm of possibility that Matusz makes a jump this year, like Price did last year. He showed a hint of that the last month and a half. Guthrie is solid, and you never know what can happen with the rest of the team. I just feel alot of fans let the negativity of the last 13 years sway their optimism that this team has the ability to be very good.

Anyhow, this is just an average fans opinion. I used no stats or measuring tools to come to my conclusions. I just used my gut feeling. Maybe the O's will finish 4th or 5th, or maybe just maybe they win the whole bleepin thing. (Major League reference)

Hey, Why Not?

[Capn Vivi]

Some people act like this team deserves such lofty expectations. This offseason sure has me excited for this season to get under way, but I'm certainly not expecting this team to contend. Like recent years, I enter each game with the mindset "I hope we can win, I can't wait to see how the young players develop!"

Since when has this team overachieved? Or achieved anything? I refuse to expect anything outlandish from a team that hasn't had a winning season in 13 years! Show me that we can play with the best of'em and I'll believe we can. Otherwise, all I have to go on is optimism and hope and such things do not build a contender on their own.

I will say that I think a lot of players on the team legitimately believe we can contend. There's no doubt the players rallied around Buck and should be entering this season with renewed energy and hope. That might not translate to the field, but it's refreshing as a state of mind. Player interviews in ST should be fun - hah!

[allstar1579]

Some people act like this team deserves such lofty expectations. This offseason sure has me excited for this season to get under way, but I'm certainly not expecting this team to contend. Like recent years, I enter each game with the mindset "I hope we can win, I can't wait to see how the young players develop!"

Since when has this team overachieved? Or achieved anything? I refuse to expect anything outlandish from a team that hasn't had a winning season in 13 years! Show me that we can play with the best of'em and I'll believe we can. Otherwise, all I have to go on is optimism and hope and such things do not build a contender on their own.

I will say that I think a lot of players on the team legitimately believe we can contend. There's no doubt the players rallied around Buck and should be entering this season with renewed energy and hope. That might not translate to the field, but it's refreshing as a state of mind. Player interviews in ST should be fun - hah!

There is some serious kool aid flowing, but I say let 'em drink. People need something to be excited about and to look up to. Even if it's going to be a really depressing May/June around here, in one way I'm glad it's not just gloom and doom around here for now.

[Capn Vivi]

There is some serious kool aid flowing, but I say let 'em drink. People need something to be excited about and to look up to. Even if it's going to be a really depressing May/June around here, in one way I'm glad it's not just gloom and doom around here for now.

Well, I'm looking up! I don't mean to sound like a "pessimist" or a "realist." But when people go around not just wearing their optimism on their sleeve but outright proclaiming the O's will contend, it can become annoying!

There's room for optimism and far be it from me to tell posters what the O's will or will not accomplish this season. I'll be there with everyone watching and rooting for this team. I just think that people should remember to take a breath. Disregarding logic for the sake of optimism is as annoying (or possibly more annoying) than doing the same thing in the name of pessimism.

It brings out the devil's advocate in so many people on this site and seems to start a lot of ugly arguments about projections that no one can really win.

It's pretty amazing listening to O's fans on the radio (105.7, not that horrible other one). When we signed Vlad, some people were calling in talking about how they had lost all hope and their lives had become aimless and misanthropic - and then VLAD! I don't mean to make it sound trivial, but the love and affection for this team is here and I certainly appreciate how so many fans are frothing at the mouth for a contender.

I just wish there would be more intelligent discussion on the subject, that's all!

[crawjo]

Just curious as to why alot of people consider TB to be in the upper tier of the AL East still, and easily dismiss the Orioles as an 80-83 win team at best? I'm not saying the O's are a contender, though my heart as a fan says "Hell Yeah" this team can contend.

I think the losses to the Rays offense have been overstated. Pena won't be that difficult to replace. Crawford will be, but the club still has a lot of good young talent that gets overlooked. Guys like Jaso and Zobrist don't get enough credit, IMO. They have serious on-base skills and with Longoria still in the middle of that lineup, the Rays offense will be okay.

I don't think they will miss Garza at all. Price, Shields, Niemann, Davis and Hellickson form the second-best rotation in the division, and one of the best in the American League. That will keep them in a lot of games.

The one area that has been really hurt this offseason has been the bullpen, no doubt about it. Losing Soriano, Balfour and Benoit in one winter is just brutal. That is their main weakness now. It could be enough to send them crashing to the bottom of the pack, but for now I think they are still the third best team in the division, and they have an outside shot to get to the postseason.

[crawjo]

Not directed at you in particular, but don't all pessimists view themselves as realists? And so do most optimists.

To me, realism is recognizing that a lot of different outcomes are possible in baseball, and that the most likely one isn't always the one that occurs. That allows the optimist in me to hope that things break our way, and in that case, yes I think second place is possible. Just not probable.

Right. But the question people should be asking themselves is this: If this were just some random team, what would I think of the Orioles chances? I think independent fans and analysts can look at what Baltimore has done and say, okay, they've improved the offense a lot, but the team still lacks marquee talent at any position. There's some talent in the rotation, but most of it is unproven and the trials that Bergesen, Arrieta, and Tillman got last year weren't exactly promising. None of those guys looked as good as, say, Hellickson did for the Rays in his first ML appearances. The Orioles should improve but they still can't compete in that division. That's the fairest assessment one can make at this point.

I really feel that this is a 78-win team, plus or minus a few games. I think the optimism is understandable but if the Orioles shot at the postseason is as small as I think it is (which is to say, around a 5 percent probability), then the letdown on this board will be huge. I can already see the threads in May wondering what happened to the "magic" that Showalter had late in last season, and why Reynolds or Lee or Guerrero aren't hitting well, and why Wieters is still in a rut. I hope that doesn't come to pass, but if it does this board will be really painful to read, moreso even than it was in 2010. Nothing sets up people for real disappointment like unrealistic expectations.

[srock]

Well I did take Wieters there, I was just noting that Montero put up monster numbers in the minors last year, at a very young age. His defense will not be good but he could be putting up Buster Posey offensive numbers this year and if he's doing that and Wieters does not step up his offensive game, I'd rather have Montero. All things equal I pick Wieters, but it could easily go the other way.

With Jeter the question is whether the offensive decline he showed last year is permanent, or if he is going to rebound at all this year. Personally I think he rebounds. I don't expect him to put up his 2009 numbers, but I will be surprised if he bats well below .300 again. I see something like .305/.360/.410. If he does that I think he gets the edge over Hardy. I admit its debatable, but if 2011 were the only factor, I bet you most teams would rather have Jeter than Hardy as their everyday SS.

In left, I did that before we got Vlad. Gardner v. Scott is a totally different can of worms than Gardner v. Reimold/Pie. Gardner is 27 years old and I don't think he's suddenly going to lose his skill at getting on base or stealing bases. The guy's OBP last year was .383. He stole 47 bases and he won the Fielding Bible award for his defense in LF. That is to say, very smart people think he's the best defensive left fielder in all of baseball. If he had been on the Orioles last year he could have been our second most valuable player, after Scott. He should be New York's leadoff hitter; Jeter should bat ninth. But that's another discussion.

Regarding the rotations, Sabathia is obviously head and shoulders above anything the Orioles have. He's been very consistent and healthy for the past five seasons. At 30 years old, he's as solid a bet to repeat past performance as you will find among AL pitchers. The rest of the Yankees rotation IS shaky, but then, so is the O's: After you get past Matusz and Guthrie, you have a bunch of unproven young arms and an oft-injured starter in Duchscherer. Therefore I don't really see any reason to give the edge to Baltimore. I don't think the rotation is a huge advantage for New York, but with C.C. in there you have to put them ahead. And with Soriano and Rivera at the back of their bullpen, NY's pen is clearly superior to ours. I think it would be quite the upset if Baltimore posted a team ERA lower than New York's this season.

I disagree that Montero is anywhere close to Wieters at this point. His monster MiL numbers are less then Wieters monster MiL numbers and until you hit in the Show, nothing is for sure. Wieters is far more of a sure thing and should be a top 10 WAR catcher (likely top 5) in baseball this year even if he doesn't break out offensively. Montero has much to prove.

More importantly...stupid jeter is a massive risk. This is his age 37 season. How many 'bounce backs' do you expect old fartknocker SS's to have? Cal was playing full time 3B at 36 and was a better SS then jeter by every conceivable measure at every point in their careers. Unless making easy plays look spectacular is a skill...but I digress. I'll be shocked if he is worth even 1 WAR this year.

Your other points are perfectly viable.

Edit: Stats for catchers to backup my Wieters claims: (interestingly, only 7 players played 75% of their games at catcher and qualified for the batting title.)

For single seasons, For 2010, Played 75% of games at C, (requiring Qualified for league batting title), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

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[Florida_Osfan]

I don't see myself as a pessimist. I see myself as a realist. We are in the toughest division in baseball.

I think the Orioles improved themselves more than any other team in the division. I also think, if I had to bet, they'll finish in last. That's the nature of the AL East. If we were in a different division I might be able to buy the argument that we could legitimately contend for a playoff spot this year, but as long as we're playing Boston, New York, Tampa and Toronto as often as we do, it's going to be awfully tough.

I'm more excited about this year than I've been at any time in a long while. I legitimately think the Orioles have a chance to move out of the cellar, maybe as high as third place.

You're excited about a last place or, at best, third place finish? I'm not really disagreeing with your premise: this division is tough and there are a lot of reasons, e.g., Boston, TB, and NYY, to name a few, that could play a role in us progressing only a little. But to really "bet" on us finishing last sounds incredibly pessimistic about our chances. It would be disasterous for us to have another 65-70 win team. That means things went very wrong for us and many players were either injured or underperformed.

But a team this improved, for at least 2011, will have an effect on other teams as well. We're better and if the team stay healthy, we'll have more wins against our division opponents and other weaker teams. There's a cause and effect relationship to winning more--we catch up and the others fall behind. So how does a "most improved team in the AL" realistically finish exactly where it did last year?

P.S. Edit: I saw that you later predicted 78 wins (plus or minus a few). So, how many do you expect TB or TOR to have? 80-85? That seems bearish for us.