BP: Wieters one of the Most Disappointing Prospects of All Time

[Sports Guy]

How'd everyone miss that? Not sure. It's not like the Orioles were singular in their thinking.

But you brought up a guy like Brien Taylor earlier...Everyone thought he was legit, though granted he injured his arm in an off-field altercation. Everyone thought Van Poppel was legit. Everyone thought your boy Alex Gordon was legit, too.

Sometimes everyone is wrong.

I'm not blaming it on the Orioles...Its just hard to believe that everyone would miss.

Gordon has had some injury issues that can derail things..before that, he was a good player and well ahead of where Wieters is now.

Taylor, at least, was a HS pitcher...You just never know with guys like this.

We are talking about a guy that was a very advanced college hitter.

[LookinUp]

No one has said he can't be valuable.

But that simply isn't good enough, especially with the poor way this team operates.

For what? Are you stating that we can't contend unless Wieters is a stud #3 hitter and defender? We're not 100% reliant on him hitting his ceiling, though that would help obviously.

[Tony-OH]

Hello everyone, new to the board here.

Reading through this thread I saw and have heard many times before about the concerns regarding Wieters bat speed. The question I have is, is his bat really slow or not? Is there some type of bat swing speed measurement like they have for golfers or are folks just "eyeballing" it?

For me it's about seeing him turn on good fastballs and hitting long pull home runs. That's not the only factors of course, but they are two things I use with my eyeballs to determine bat speed. Another thing is guys with good bat speed don't have to cheat as much so they are fooled less on changeups and curveballs. Also, guys with good bat speed usually can get to the inside pitch and are rarely sawed off. Guys who can't get the bat head to the inside pitch usually don't have great bat speed.

Welcome to the board...

[SilentJames]

There will always be exceptions...but most of the all time greats were very good from day 1.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/posadjo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/varitja01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/munsoth01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/palmeji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robinbr01.shtml

[weams]

Sure, we can't count on it. I'm just saying that it's very premature for BP to call him one of the biggest disappointments of all time, given his age and relative lack of experience. I think we probably agree on that.

I think it is very lazy of them to throw this kind of drivel out at this point.

[Greg Pappas]

While Wieters bat has been disappointing thus far (relative to expectations), I feel strongly that he'll show far better at the plate this year. Coupled with his strong defense, it should make him a truly outstanding young backstop. I, for one, am excited about his future here in Baltimore, and hopefully all this "disappointing" chatter will be mostly forgotten as he blooms a perennial All-Star career.

[weams]

I raise my question about bat speed because there is a big difference between "looking like your swinging hard" and the actual speed the bat is traveling.

Another good post. Welcome.

[SrMeowMeow]

In a thread of overreaction, we see a post where someone lets the point of a post fly over his head.

My point, which was directed at Paul's point, is that just because some guys have struggled in the beginning and then went on to be good doesn't mean we can count on that for Matt.

Most of the best were top notch from the start.

My expectation for Wieters was/is that he becomes a perennial AS, premium level player.

Well, that expectation, as a probable case, is unreasonable. For any prospect. Maybe that's what you wanted Wieters to be, or what you think he needs to be, but all that has nothing to do with reality - and reality is that it's an uphill battle for any prospect to develop into a consistently premium player.

You're basically saying that your expectation was fringe HOF for Wieters and any less would be a disappointment. That's crazy. Victor Wang's research shows that a top 10 Baseball America prospect has about a 15% chance of developing into a star (his qualifications for star are below your expectations for Wieters, by the way). Obviously Wieters was rated higher than your average top 10 hitter by Baseball America, but still - you are way off in your understanding of the probabilities and risk/reward profile of any prospect, even a great one. You basically took Wieters's ceiling and made it your floor.

[olehippi]

I think its possible....likely even....that all the hype surrounding Wieters may have had a negative effect upon him. There was a lot of pressure to perform - some members of the press were calling him the "switch hitting Jesus!!"

Well now he has a full year in the ML under his belt so the pressure is off to some degree. Plus, he has a new hitting coach who will maybe try a different approach to correct whatever may be wrong with his swing. So, let's see what happens this year before we panic.

[Hallas]

No one has said he can't be valuable.

But that simply isn't good enough, especially with the poor way this team operates.

To me, there's a world of difference between "good, but not good enough" and "not good." To be the biggest disappointment of all time (or lumped in that group) you should be in the latter category in my opinion.

I get the fact that we need him to be a superstar, but while his failure to become one would be a disappointment, it says more about the team than it does about Wieters as a prospect.

[Hallas]

For me it's about seeing him turn on good fastballs and hitting long pull home runs. That's not the only factors of course, but they are two things I use with my eyeballs to determine bat speed. Another thing is guys with good bat speed don't have to cheat as much so they are fooled less on changeups and curveballs. Also, guys with good bat speed usually can get to the inside pitch and are rarely sawed off. Guys who can't get the bat head to the inside pitch usually don't have great bat speed.

Welcome to the board...

Just to add on...

While some people do measure raw bat speed with a radar gun, "bat acceleration" might be a better term. From what I've seen and heard, the primary goal is to get the bat from your shoulder to a square position in the hitting zone as fast as possible while remaining in a position to hit the ball with authority. As an example, Albert Pujols' raw bat speed is pretty low, but he gets the bat to the zone lightning fast, and he keeps the bat in the zone for a long time (relatively speaking) while maintaining the ability to drive the ball for the duration that his bat is in the zone. As a result, he's generally lumped in with the "fast bat" crowd. Conversely, Mark Reynolds is considered to have a "long swing" because even though he generates tremendous raw bat speed, it takes him a long time to get to max velocity.

(Keep in mind that, when discussing bat speed, "long time" is probably measured in milliseconds, or maybe even microseconds. They say baseball is a game of inches... more like millimeters.)

[Sports Guy]

For what? Are you stating that we can't contend unless Wieters is a stud #3 hitter and defender? We're not 100% reliant on him hitting his ceiling, though that would help obviously.

With the way the Orioles do business right now, yes that is what we need from him.

[LookinUp]

With the way the Orioles do business right now, yes that is what we need from him.

No, we need to improve the way we do business. If we don't, it doesn't matter how good Wieters is. If we do, his long term success matters much less.

[Sports Guy]

No, we need to improve the way we do business. If we don't, it doesn't matter how good Wieters is. If we do, his long term success matters much less.

Well of course we do but that's not happening anytime soon...So, in the meantime, we need everyone to pan out and Wieters is #1 in line there.

[LookinUp]

Well of course we do but that's not happening anytime soon...So, in the meantime, we need everyone to pan out and Wieters is #1 in line there.

I for one am hoping that Buck is changing the way the Orioles do business, like to the core, like what AM was supposed to do from day 1.