Measuring Wieters' impact on Orioles isn't easy - Kevin Van Valkenburg, The Baltimore Sun

[Frobby]

We have more then 9 games to go on. We have 57 games from the end of last year. Things have not changed other then adding a little more offense. The pitchers are telling us why they are pitching so well. Listen to them. It's Wieters.

In the minors, Wieters didn't spend so much concentration on watching video and putting a game plan in his mind. He probably spend that time making sure is hitting stroke was great from both sides the plate. His priorities are different now. He knows what wins. Buck knows what wins. Its time that the fan base caught up to their thinking and supported them.

I'm sorry, but I don't believe that someone flipped a switch on Wieters and he suddenly changed his game-calling strategy significantly the day Buck arrived. And what does this have to do with supporting the team, anyway? I'm totally supportive of what Wieters is doing defensively, and I recognize its importance. I'll still wait and see how he does, and how the team does, before drawing any grand conclusions about how he is doing overall.

[flashjordnk]

We have more then 9 games to go on. We have 57 games from the end of last year. Things have not changed other then adding a little more offense. The pitchers are telling us why they are pitching so well. Listen to them. It's Wieters.

In the minors, Wieters didn't spend so much concentration on watching video and putting a game plan in his mind. He probably spend that time making sure is hitting stroke was great from both sides the plate. His priorities are different now. He knows what wins. Buck knows what wins. Its time that the fan base caught up to their thinking and supported them.

Frankly this quote is just flat out wrong. We have 57 games from last year? You're saying mentally and physically Matt Wieters is the exact same guy as last year? I'm not saying he's going to turn around and OPS 800+ this year, but I am saying so far this season, we've only had 9 games to base what we've seen off of.

I mean Vlad over his last 57 games last year OPSed 781 and it looks like he's on pace to do a lot worse than through our first 9 games. I think we might be ready to call his hall of fame status into question. Also...Wieters OPSed 752 over his last 57 games. So let's not pretend like these 9 games were a reflection of what he was doing over the last 60 last year.

Don't get me wrong I see SG's point. But I think a lot of what he's had to say is couched in the fact he thinks the front office can't do enough to bring enough talent around MW to have a competitive team. To a fairly large degree I disagree with that. I think if we got what we we're on trajectory to expect right now, the O's can do a lot with MW and bring in the surrounding pieces we need to be successful. I don't think Wieters becomes what was projected of him. But he'll be more than useful to this team, and not having to worry about the catcher position for 5 years is a good thing.

[flashjordnk]

I'm an idiot Wildcard and misread your post. Thought you were talking about his offense not his defense. But my point still stands. His offense this season is still to be determined because of a very small SSS.

[Sports Guy]

I don't see why some people are upset that others are bummed that he's not a better hitter right now.

I think if you polled the OH back in early 2008 and said "Guess what? What if Matt Wieters is going to be scuffling along in his career and actually REGRESSED as a hitter by early 2011...how does that sit with you?" the vast majority of people on here would be disappointed. I don't think there'd be a whole lot of people crying about "Well we'd just have to give him more time!"

Yep..you have to love the inconsistency of the fans here.

The bottom line is this...The Orioles didn't spend 6 million on Wieters for him to be a good game caller and solid with the glove. You could find a catcher to do that later in a draft and they could have drafted Jason Heyward instead. Do you think if they knew then what we know now, that they would still draft Wieters, despite him leading the staff? No chance...especially not at 6 million.

[Sports Guy]

Frankly this quote is just flat out wrong. We have 57 games from last year? You're saying mentally and physically Matt Wieters is the exact same guy as last year? I'm not saying he's going to turn around and OPS 800+ this year, but I am saying so far this season, we've only had 9 games to base what we've seen off of.

I mean Vlad over his last 57 games last year OPSed 781 and it looks like he's on pace to do a lot worse than through our first 9 games. I think we might be ready to call his hall of fame status into question. Also...Wieters OPSed 752 over his last 57 games. So let's not pretend like these 9 games were a reflection of what he was doing over the last 60 last year.

Don't get me wrong I see SG's point. But I think a lot of what he's had to say is couched in the fact he thinks the front office can't do enough to bring enough talent around MW to have a competitive team. To a fairly large degree I disagree with that. I think if we got what we we're on trajectory to expect right now, the O's can do a lot with MW and bring in the surrounding pieces we need to be successful. I don't think Wieters becomes what was projected of him. But he'll be more than useful to this team, and not having to worry about the catcher position for 5 years is a good thing.

My points about Wieters' bat has nothing to do with the FO.

[flashjordnk]

Yep..you have to love the inconsistency of the fans here.

The bottom line is this...The Orioles didn't spend 6 million on Wieters for him to be a good game caller and solid with the glove. You could find a catcher to do that later in a draft and they could have drafted Jason Heyward instead. Do you think if they knew then what we know now, that they would still draft Wieters, despite him leading the staff? No chance...especially not at 6 million.

Yeah, but at the same time you can't do that. You don't know what Heyward was going to become or Posey or any of them. The draft is a crap shoot. Yeah for $6 million it sucks that we didn't get exactly what we wanted out of it, but honestly that's the MLB draft.

I would say that a lot of fans might make their arguments in extreme ways but the feeling is that if Wieters can be an above average major league player, either through the glove or how he calls the game, that's a win. You can make the same argument they could have drafted Vitters, Moskos, LaPorta, Detwiler, Aumont, Mills, Ahrens, Beaven, Kozma, Savory, Withrow, Alderson, Schmidt...I can keep going and going.

It's not a given they would have taken Heyward, and it's also not a given that we would get a MLB full time player. I think people are willing to agree with you that Wieters is to some degree a disappointment, but it's a drafting win that we got a guy like Wieters. Would people take Wieters for his money, becoming what he is now after Hobgood. I think these fans would emphatically say yes.

[flashjordnk]

My points about Wieters' bat has nothing to do with the FO.

Meh...not how I meant it. I know you think his bat is slow and his swing is long. I meant that you've said the long term growth of this team and MW are linked because the FO won't be able to build a team in the right ways without him getting his bat to where we need it to be. Is that not what you've said?

[wildcard]

I'm sorry, but I don't believe that someone flipped a switch on Wieters and he suddenly changed his game-calling strategy significantly the day Buck arrived. And what does this have to do with supporting the team, anyway? I'm totally supportive of what Wieters is doing defensively, and I recognize its importance. I'll still wait and see how he does, and how the team does, before drawing any grand conclusions about how he is doing overall.

Its already been said that Buck empowered Wieters more then Trembley or Samuel. More will come out about that over time. One of the first things did was to tell Wieters to take charge of the pitching staff.

[K.V.V.]

It does make for an interesting debate. If Wieters OPS was .050 higher, would it be more beneficial to the Orioles if came at the cost of defense? The stats vs. intangibles argument will never be settled, but part of the reason for that is there's no stat that can quantify what the outcome might have been had Wieters told Britton to throw a slider to Teixiera instead of a change-up. How do you quantify the tag he made last year at the plate on a good -- but not great -- throw by Patterson that literally saved a win and ended the game? (Can't remember who the opponent was. Simon was pitching.) A regular catcher can't go across his body like that, catch the ball cleanly, then dive back toward the plate and make a great tag. But maybe if his OPS is .050 higher, the O's are up three runs there instead of one. It's a debate will no definitive answer.

[The Rick]

Regarding offense, it really would disappoint me if Wieters did not improve upon the .752 OPS he posted as a rookie. I just don't see any good reason why he shouldn't be a better hitter now than he was when he first entered the league. It really makes very little sense that his offensive performance would be declining, especially considering the unbelievable numbers he posted in the minors. Something will have gone horribly wrong if Wieters doesn't rebound in 2011.

The book is out on Wieters, and he's failed to adjust?

I mean Nadecir's point about Wieters hitting from behind in the count illustrates that to a degree. Throw a first pitch strike, hope he doesn't put it in play, or if he does it's not good contact, and then you're almost guaranteed to get him out for whatever reason.

Of course it's hard to make that argument in stone as we don't know why he hits so poorly when he's behind in the account, we just know that if he falls behind, he's epicly terrible.

[Phantom]

It does make for an interesting debate. If Wieters OPS was .050 higher, would it be more beneficial to the Orioles if came at the cost of defense? The stats vs. intangibles argument will never be settled, but part of the reason for that is there's no stat that can quantify what the outcome might have been had Wieters told Britton to throw a slider to Teixiera instead of a change-up. How do you quantify the tag he made last year at the plate on a good -- but not great -- throw by Patterson that literally saved a win and ended the game? (Can't remember who the opponent was. Simon was pitching.) A regular catcher can't go across his body like that, catch the ball cleanly, then dive back toward the plate and make a great tag. But maybe if his OPS is .050 higher, the O's are up three runs there instead of one. It's a debate will no definitive answer.

This is why stat guys like the things they like (i.e. measurable things). I can't tell you how much of an impact Wieters has made on our staff, but seeing as no one has ever been able to prove any sort of significant impact in that area from catchers, it's a fair guess that it's minimal.

Basically, you're asking if I'd trade intangibles for measurables (like hitting and most defense), and the answer is an easy yes. Intangibles may help us win, but they may not. Measurables we know help us win.

[Sports Guy]

Meh...not how I meant it. I know you think his bat is slow and his swing is long. I meant that you've said the long term growth of this team and MW are linked because the FO won't be able to build a team in the right ways without him getting his bat to where we need it to be. Is that not what you've said?

You are really twisting the context of things IMO but whatever, its not worth getting into it.

[Sports Guy]

It does make for an interesting debate. If Wieters OPS was .050 higher, would it be more beneficial to the Orioles if came at the cost of defense? The stats vs. intangibles argument will never be settled, but part of the reason for that is there's no stat that can quantify what the outcome might have been had Wieters told Britton to throw a slider to Teixiera instead of a change-up. How do you quantify the tag he made last year at the plate on a good -- but not great -- throw by Patterson that literally saved a win and ended the game? (Can't remember who the opponent was. Simon was pitching.) A regular catcher can't go across his body like that, catch the ball cleanly, then dive back toward the plate and make a great tag. But maybe if his OPS is .050 higher, the O's are up three runs there instead of one. It's a debate will no definitive answer.

The thing is, can't you find a bunch of catchers like this though?

Guys like Brad Ausmus and Charlie O'Brien stuck in the league for years because of the "intangibles" behind the plate.

The Orioles drafted Wieters to be a franchise, cornerstone player. You can't be a franchise player and just be a good signal caller and leader of the pitching staff. That is really all Wieters is right now because his hitting is terrible.

You said expecting him to be Mauer was too much...Maybe that's true.

However, what was very reasonable to expect was someone that would walk a ton, hit for a good average(maybe not 350 but 280-300) and hit for a lot of power. That is what he was until he got to the majors.

That type of player will end up being an 850ish OPS player. That wasn't unreasonable to expect at all. He did that in college...He did that in the minors. All projection services had him at that. All scouts had him at that. He was supposed to be Boras' next big time client seeking a major deal when his FA came up.

Hell, the biggest strike against him was his game calling...all he has proven is that he has really worked on that and maybe he has done that to the detriment of his offense. If that is the case, someone needs to get in his ear and tell him to start working on his hitting.

I agree that you can't measure what he does for the team but the things that you can measure stink for the most part. He shows no signs of snapping out of things. He doesn't drive the ball. He doesn't pull the ball with authority. His hits are weak hits and the only power he shows is to the opposite field. He seemingly can't get around on a good fastball and his plate discipline has been just ok, nothing like we thought it would be.

At least if he was walking a ton and giving the team a 340-350 OBP, you could at least be somewhat ok with the lack of power...but he isn't even doing that.

I appreciate what he is doing defensively and I think it shows very good work ethic on his part to really enhance himself defensively but the Orioles need him to be more than that and right now, it doesn't look like they will get what they want.

[flashjordnk]

The thing is, can't you find a bunch of catchers like this though?

Guys like Brad Ausmus and Charlie O'Brien stuck in the league for years because of the "intangibles" behind the plate.

The Orioles drafted Wieters to be a franchise, cornerstone player. You can't be a franchise player and just be a good signal caller and leader of the pitching staff. That is really all Wieters is right now because his hitting is terrible.

You said expecting him to be Mauer was too much...Maybe that's true.

However, what was very reasonable to expect was someone that would walk a ton, hit for a good average(maybe not 350 but 280-300) and hit for a lot of power. That is what he was until he got to the majors.

That type of player will end up being an 850ish OPS player. That wasn't unreasonable to expect at all. He did that in college...He did that in the minors. All projection services had him at that. All scouts had him at that. He was supposed to be Boras' next big time client seeking a major deal when his FA came up.

Hell, the biggest strike against him was his game calling...all he has proven is that he has really worked on that and maybe he has done that to the detriment of his offense. If that is the case, someone needs to get in his ear and tell him to start working on his hitting.

I agree that you can't measure what he does for the team but the things that you can measure stink for the most part. He shows no signs of snapping out of things. He doesn't drive the ball. He doesn't pull the ball with authority. His hits are weak hits and the only power he shows is to the opposite field. He seemingly can't get around on a good fastball and his plate discipline has been just ok, nothing like we thought it would be.

At least if he was walking a ton and giving the team a 340-350 OBP, you could at least be somewhat ok with the lack of power...but he isn't even doing that.

I appreciate what he is doing defensively and I think it shows very good work ethic on his part to really enhance himself defensively but the Orioles need him to be more than that and right now, it doesn't look like they will get what they want.

A bunch? You named two. Who does this right now in the league? Name me the elite defensive catcher on a MLB roster currently. I guess if there were a bunch of guys in the league that did this now, I'd be more likely to buy your point.

[Sports Guy]

A bunch? You named two. Who does this right now in the league? Name me the elite defensive catcher on a MLB roster currently. I guess if there were a bunch of guys in the league that did this now, I'd be more likely to buy your point.

I'm not going to go through the rosters of every team to satisfy something you should already know. Do you think Boston keeps around Varitek because of his bat right now?

I mean look at a guy like Tatum. He made the club last year because the pitchers loved throwing to him. Remember, Guthrie didn't even want Wieters catching him before..he preferred Tatum. There have been plenty of guys, throughout the years, that have been able to carve their niche as good signal callers/defensive catchers and been able to stay in the game longer because of it.

If you have watched baseball for more than 5 minutes, you know this to be true.