Measuring Wieters' impact on Orioles isn't easy - Kevin Van Valkenburg, The Baltimore Sun

[JTrea81]

Let's see what happens in the next couple of series here.

Wieters was hitting well until he ran into the buzzsaw that was Justin Verlander and then he had to face a Texas pitching staff that is simply dominating the league right now.

If he can't hit the Yankees and Indians pitching, then we can worry...

I think Wieters will still have a Jason Varitek 1999 like season this year and maybe better than that.

[NattieO'sHon]

I don't think many people on here, if any, are declaring Wieters as a bust or someone who can't turn things around.

What people are saying, which you continue to completely ignore, is that the signs just aren't there.

You can't deny that...at least with any knowledge and intelligence behind it.

I cannot deny that. He does look bad at the plate. I just think it is absurd for anyone to say that he is a bust. He has plenty of time to become a good hitter. You have to agree that everyone was concerned about his ability to call a game. Well he has proven to everyone in a very short period time that he is absolute stud behind the plate. I know the stats say otherwise but I bet he also becomes a great hitter here soon. You can call it hope. I call it being a fan.

[K.V.V.]

Here is what I'll say about Wieters, and the main reason I wrote the article.

It's interesting to me that a guy who was so embraced (ridiculously so) by the SABR community, was completely abandoned by them after 200 games in the big leagues, yet he is still the darling of the other part of baseball culture, the grizzled "it's all about intangibles" guys.

Arrieta's awful start with Fox behind the plate, I think, only confirms some of what the Showalters of the world believe. A certain part of the game, he gets. It really does matter. He seems to understand how to pitch to hitters. And maybe he's so worried about that, he can't focus on the other part. I covered the game where he got his first hit. It was a rocket to dead center off Verlander for a triple. It does seem like he's regressed as a hitter since then, at least in terms of making good contact and driving the ball.

Mauer (who I think might be the best hitting catcher ever when he's done) was a completely absurd comparison for the Baseball Prospectus guys to make, and if you look back and read some of the stories, they were going so far as to say as a minor leaguer, he was already potentially better than Mauer. The PETCOTA stuff predicted he might have the greatest rookie season of all time based on his minor league stats. I don't know how someone even writes that with a straight face, but it's not surprising how quickly the SABR people have written him off since he didn't live up to the absurd bar the set for him.

Now, I find the numbers people very interesting. I'm not one of those people who dismiss it as nerd science. But I'm a big believer in matters of the human mind and human heart. Baseball isn't 100 percent science, and it isn't 100 percent poetry. It's a little of both. Some people simply react differently to pressure than others, even if a large sample size says clutch hitting does not exist, and projections -- while interesting -- mean little to me. Was he over-hyped? Absolutely. Even if he does turn out to be decent hitter, which he may still.

But I would say there is a good lesson here: It's ok to be skeptical of hype, even as fan. Because a lot of people in my field are in the hype business. And keep in mind that a lot of No. 5 picks in the draft never even make the majors. That's a bust. To get an every day starter from that slot, someone who is arguably (at least according to scouts) one of the best catchers in the American League is not a wasted pick. Picking Jeff Clemmet at No. 3 when Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun are sitting there, that's a disaster.

(BTW, I got the idea from watching the Tampa series, which seems like forever ago now, but I did read many of the intelligent takes on this board after it came together and wish I was a Baseball Prospectus premium subscriber so I could have included the stuff about him having a worse OPS than Izturis with two strikes. I wrote it during the Detroit series. One of the things I'm learning about covering baseball is how the narrative doesn't stop changing. He looks lost as a hitter this year, but it's only 25 at bats, so I'm not sure it's fair to declare him a black hole yet. But as always, I appreciate you guys reading the stories in the Sun, and hope you will continue to do so.)

[ccbird]

Here is what I'll say about Wieters, and the main reason I wrote the article.

It's interesting to me that a guy who was so embraced (ridiculously so) by the SABR community, was completely abandoned by them after 200 games in the big leagues, yet he is still the darling of the other part of baseball culture, the grizzled "it's all about intangibles" guys.

Arrieta's awful start with Fox behind the plate, I think, only confirms some of what the Showalters of the world believe. A certain part of the game, he gets. It really does matter. He seems to understand how to pitch to hitters. And maybe he's so worried about that, he can't focus on the other part. I covered the game where he got his first hit. It was a rocket to dead center off Verlander for a triple. It does seem like he's regressed as a hitter since then, at least in terms of making good contact and driving the ball.

Mauer (who I think might be the best hitting catcher ever when he's done) was a completely absurd comparison for the Baseball Prospectus guys to make, and if you look back and read some of the stories, they were going so far as to say as a minor leaguer, he was already potentially better than Mauer. The PETCOTA stuff predicted he might have the greatest rookie season of all time based on his minor league stats. I don't know how someone even writes that with a straight face, but it's not surprising how quickly the SABR people have written him off since he didn't live up to the absurd bar the set for him.

Now, I find the numbers people very interesting. I'm not one of those people who dismiss it as nerd science. But I'm a big believer in matters of the human mind and human heart. Baseball isn't 100 percent science, and it isn't 100 percent poetry. It's a little of both. Some people simply react differently to pressure than others, even if a large sample size says clutch hitting does not exist, and projections -- while interesting -- mean little to me. Was he over-hyped? Absolutely. Even if he does turn out to be decent hitter, which he may still.

But I would say there is a good lesson here: It's ok to be skeptical of hype, even as fan. Because a lot of people in my field are in the hype business. And keep in mind that a lot of No. 5 picks in the draft never even make the majors. That's a bust. To get an every day starter from that slot, someone who is arguably (at least according to scouts) one of the best catchers in the American League is not a wasted pick. Picking Jeff Clemmet at No. 3 when Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun are sitting there, that's a disaster.

(BTW, I got the idea from watching the Tampa series, which seems like forever ago now, but I did read many of the intelligent takes on this board after it came together and wish I was a Baseball Prospectus premium subscriber so I could have included the stuff about him having a worse OPS than Izturis with two strikes. I wrote it during the Detroit series. One of the things I'm learning about covering baseball is how the narrative doesn't stop changing. He looks lost as a hitter this year, but it's only 25 at bats, so I'm not sure it's fair to declare him a black hole yet. But as always, I appreciate you guys reading the stories in the Sun, and hope you will continue to do so.)

Very good post and article. The people who overhype a kid are often the ones that turn the fastest. When you say something absurd like Wieters in AA is better than Mauer and it doesn't come close to being true it makes you look horrible. At that point, I guess some think it's better to jump ship and start trashing him and hope people forget how much you hyped him than to stick with him, give him time, and ultimately accept him for what he becomes.

[Moose Milligan]

I don't see why some people are upset that others are bummed that he's not a better hitter right now.

I think if you polled the OH back in early 2008 and said "Guess what? What if Matt Wieters is going to be scuffling along in his career and actually REGRESSED as a hitter by early 2011...how does that sit with you?" the vast majority of people on here would be disappointed. I don't think there'd be a whole lot of people crying about "Well we'd just have to give him more time!"

[O-The-Memories]

I don't see why some people are upset that others are bummed that he's not a better hitter right now.

I think if you polled the OH back in early 2008 and said "Guess what? What if Matt Wieters is going to be scuffling along in his career and actually REGRESSED as a hitter by early 2011...how does that sit with you?" the vast majority of people on here would be disappointed. I don't think there'd be a whole lot of people crying about "Well we'd just have to give him more time!"

I couldn't agree more. In fact, I'll take it a step further. I may be wrong, but I think there's a few catchers out there that can learn how to call a good game. If the OP is true, and there are 25 clubs knocking down the Orioles door in regards to Wieters, sell high now while you can. I will go on record as saying that Matt Wieters hasn't lived up to even the minimum expectations I had for him on the offensive end of things. We can find a great defensive catcher out there, which is what Matt Wieters is right now. I truly don't see any signs of him turning it around when he's batting, at least not for this ballclub.

If you can get two Top 5 prospects from a club and another valuable piece, I say trade Wieters now while he still fetches a lot.

Now feel free to call me crazy, an idiot, etc.

[Slappy]

What is the point of complaining about him not reaching our offensive expectations? At this point, I'll embrace him for being a very good defensive player at a premium defensive position, and one of the better hitters in the league at his position.

That's not bad to get with a first round pick, and you can certainly win pennants with him behind the plate.

[Phantom]

Life is often about expectations and return on investment. Waterworld grossed more than The Blair Witch project, yet one is considered a bomb, while the other is a dazzling success story. If Wieters turns out to be a 3-4 win catcher, with an OPS in the mid 700s, then he will be a fine player, but still not what we were imagining and hoping for. It's certainly not his fault, and he probably doesn't deserve the amount of crap he takes.

[wildcard]

If Wieters leads the O's to winning the World Series in the next few years and Wieters hits for a 700 OPS. Do you really care what Wieters hits?

It is true that right now Wieters is not the player everyone expected. He was supposed to be the "Great Jesus" as a hitter and a decent defensive catcher. Instead he is an incredible, pitching coach on the field who is marginal as a hitter.

At the core of what is important is "WHAT MAKES THE O'S WIN". There is nothing more important to the O's as a franchise. Wieters was a huge part of the O's success the last two months of 2010. He is a major part of what has put the O's in first place this year. That is what is important.

Come on people. There are a ton of smart baseball people on this board. Too smart to not realize that winning is baseball's main goal. Stats are a byproduct that help analyze the game. But listen to the players. They are telling us why the O's are winning. The pitchers are acheiving great success. Why? Listen to them. They are telling you that its the way Wieters calls a game. Listen to Buck. He is saying the same thing.

We thought Wieters was going to lead this team to a championship. It looks like he just might do that. It's just not the way we thought he would do it.

[Frobby]

Seems like most of the commentary in this thread (not the article or Keith's post) is bordering on the extreme, one way or the other. I would certainly be disappointed if Wieters posted a sub-.700 OPS, no matter how good his pitch-calling and defense were. At the same time, I'm not going to overreact to nine games worth of statistics, either in terms of Wieters' offensive performance (.507 OPS), the team's ERA (2.20 in the games Wieters has caught), or the team's record (6-2 in the games Wieters has played). I'm going to let the season unfold.

Regarding offense, it really would disappoint me if Wieters did not improve upon the .752 OPS he posted as a rookie. I just don't see any good reason why he shouldn't be a better hitter now than he was when he first entered the league. It really makes very little sense that his offensive performance would be declining, especially considering the unbelievable numbers he posted in the minors. Something will have gone horribly wrong if Wieters doesn't rebound in 2011.

At the same time, Wieters is a better defensive player than I ever anticipated he would be, and I am coming to appreciate how much influence a catcher can have on run prevention, not just through physical defense, but pitch calling and handling of the pitchers.

If the Orioles are contenders, the pitching exceeds expectations and Wieters' defense and pitch calling are a big part of the reason why, I'm not going to worry nearly so much about his offense. But if the team lingers around .500 or worse, the pitching is so-so and Wieters isn't hitting, it's going to be awfully hard to say that his defense and pitch-calling make up for his lackluster offense.

In short, it is too early in the season to know how Wieters will hit, how much his defense and pitch-calling will help the pitchers, and how the team will perform. I need a lot more than 9 games to convince me of anything in terms of how 2011 is going to go, for Wieters and the team.

[SoBo]

Here is what I'll say about Wieters, and the main reason I wrote the article.

It's interesting to me that a guy who was so embraced (ridiculously so) by the SABR community, was completely abandoned by them after 200 games in the big leagues, yet he is still the darling of the other part of baseball culture, the grizzled "it's all about intangibles" guys.

Arrieta's awful start with Fox behind the plate, I think, only confirms some of what the Showalters of the world believe. A certain part of the game, he gets. It really does matter. He seems to understand how to pitch to hitters. And maybe he's so worried about that, he can't focus on the other part. I covered the game where he got his first hit. It was a rocket to dead center off Verlander for a triple. It does seem like he's regressed as a hitter since then, at least in terms of making good contact and driving the ball.

Mauer (who I think might be the best hitting catcher ever when he's done) was a completely absurd comparison for the Baseball Prospectus guys to make, and if you look back and read some of the stories, they were going so far as to say as a minor leaguer, he was already potentially better than Mauer. The PETCOTA stuff predicted he might have the greatest rookie season of all time based on his minor league stats. I don't know how someone even writes that with a straight face, but it's not surprising how quickly the SABR people have written him off since he didn't live up to the absurd bar the set for him.

Now, I find the numbers people very interesting. I'm not one of those people who dismiss it as nerd science. But I'm a big believer in matters of the human mind and human heart. Baseball isn't 100 percent science, and it isn't 100 percent poetry. It's a little of both. Some people simply react differently to pressure than others, even if a large sample size says clutch hitting does not exist, and projections -- while interesting -- mean little to me. Was he over-hyped? Absolutely. Even if he does turn out to be decent hitter, which he may still.

But I would say there is a good lesson here: It's ok to be skeptical of hype, even as fan. Because a lot of people in my field are in the hype business. And keep in mind that a lot of No. 5 picks in the draft never even make the majors. That's a bust. To get an every day starter from that slot, someone who is arguably (at least according to scouts) one of the best catchers in the American League is not a wasted pick. Picking Jeff Clemmet at No. 3 when Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun are sitting there, that's a disaster.

(BTW, I got the idea from watching the Tampa series, which seems like forever ago now, but I did read many of the intelligent takes on this board after it came together and wish I was a Baseball Prospectus premium subscriber so I could have included the stuff about him having a worse OPS than Izturis with two strikes. I wrote it during the Detroit series. One of the things I'm learning about covering baseball is how the narrative doesn't stop changing. He looks lost as a hitter this year, but it's only 25 at bats, so I'm not sure it's fair to declare him a black hole yet. But as always, I appreciate you guys reading the stories in the Sun, and hope you will continue to do so.)

Great article Kevin. Keep up the great work. I hope the Sun keeps you around. I think the comparisons to Varitek are apt in Wieters case. And he may actually end up being better behind the plate than Tek. I love Mauer, but he may not last long behind the plate if these knee injuries keep popping up.

[ccbird]

It's alright to be disappointed in Wieters offensive production. I think every O's fan is disappointed that he hasn't been and likely will never be close to the stud he was hyped up to be. I just think people are too down on him now.

[wildcard]

Seems like most of the commentary in this thread (not the article or Keith's post) is bordering on the extreme, one way or the other. I would certainly be disappointed if Wieters posted a sub-.700 OPS, no matter how good his pitch-calling and defense were. At the same time, I'm not going to overreact to nine games worth of statistics, either in terms of Wieters' offensive performance (.507 OPS), the team's ERA (2.20 in the games Wieters has caught), or the team's record (6-2 in the games Wieters has played). I'm going to let the season unfold.

Regarding offense, it really would disappoint me if Wieters did not improve upon the .752 OPS he posted as a rookie. I just don't see any good reason why he shouldn't be a better hitter now than he was when he first entered the league. It really makes very little sense that his offensive performance would be declining, especially considering the unbelievable numbers he posted in the minors. Something will have gone horribly wrong if Wieters doesn't rebound in 2011.

At the same time, Wieters is a better defensive player than I ever anticipated he would be, and I am coming to appreciate how much influence a catcher can have on run prevention, not just through physical defense, but pitch calling and handling of the pitchers.

If the Orioles are contenders, the pitching exceeds expectations and Wieters' defense and pitch calling are a big part of the reason why, I'm not going to worry nearly so much about his offense. But if the team lingers around .500 or worse, the pitching is so-so and Wieters isn't hitting, it's going to be awfully hard to say that his defense and pitch-calling make up for his lackluster offense.

In short, it is too early in the season to know how Wieters will hit, how much his defense and pitch-calling will help the pitchers, and how the team will perform. I need a lot more than 9 games to convince me of anything in terms of how 2011 is going to go, for Wieters and the team.

We have more then 9 games to go on. We have 57 games from the end of last year. Things have not changed other then adding a little more offense. The pitchers are telling us why they are pitching so well. Listen to them. It's Wieters.

In the minors, Wieters didn't spend so much concentration on watching video and putting a game plan in his mind. He probably spend that time making sure is hitting stroke was great from both sides the plate. His priorities are different now. He knows what wins. Buck knows what wins. Its time that the fan base caught up to their thinking and supported them.

[NewMarketSean]

Offensively he has been a disappointment. That is pretty much a fact. However else you measure his value, you can't get around it.

[Phantom]

If Wieters leads the O's to winning the World Series in the next few years and Wieters hits for a 700 OPS. Do you really care what Wieters hits?

It is true that right now Wieters is not the player everyone expected. He was supposed to be the "Great Jesus" as a hitter and a decent defensive catcher. Instead he is an incredible, pitching coach on the field who is marginal as a hitter.

At the core of what is important is "WHAT MAKES THE O'S WIN". There is nothing more important to the O's as a franchise. Wieters was a huge part of the O's success the last two months of 2010. He is a major part of what has put the O's in first place this year. That is what is important.

Come on people. There are a ton of smart baseball people on this board. Too smart to not realize that winning is baseball's main goal. Stats are a byproduct that help analyze the game. But listen to the players. They are telling us why the O's are winning. The pitchers are acheiving great success. Why? Listen to them. They are telling you that its the way Wieters calls a game. Listen to Buck. He is saying the same thing.

We thought Wieters was going to lead this team to a championship. It looks like he just might do that. It's just not the way we thought he would do it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catcher%27s_ERA

Frankly, I trust neither managers nor players to tell me why they are winning. I have heard too many managers talk about bat control, manufacturing runs, and even clogging the bases to trust them on this subject.

If Wieters is a great leader and great with the pitching staff, awesome, but I'll take an extra .050 OPS points (or a defensive win) over unmeasurable "intangibles" any day.

I don't want to come off as a Wieters hater, because the guy is a damn good baseball player. 3-4 wins a season is nothing to scoff at.