So, I guess Buck's honeymoon is over?

[Steve I]

By the way, let's put Buck's famous "win rule" comment into it's proper context. Michael Gonzalez (who was not our closer at the time) was pitching in a 6-3 game, and he pitched a scoreless 8th and then got the first two hitters in the 9th. Then Buck brought in Alfredo Simon (who was our closer at the time) to pitch to the final batter. Showalter was asked if he had thought about leaving Gonzalez in for the last batter so that he could earn the save. That prompted Buck's comment, "Yeah, I know all about the save rule. I prefer the win rule."

For the most part, Buck's use of his bullpen last year was pretty conventional. He replaced Simon with Koji after about 18 days, but of course, Simon hadn't been chosen by Buck in the first place, he was merely the incumbent by default at the time Buck took over. Once Koji was in, Buck pretty much used him in the conventional way, coming in at the top of the 9th regardless of what had happened in the 8th.

To me, Gregg should be the setup guy. only because Koji can pitch the 10th, if he gives up a dinger. He isn't going to walk people and given a 2 run cushion is going to convert at a 95%+ rate. Gregg gives walks and is vulnerable to a big inning, plus he can't pitch multiples. I really don't want Gregg on in the 10th with his pitch count elevating. If Koji is pitching the 10th, he probably gave up a dinger while getting out of the inning on < 15 pitches. That is the difference.

[Sports Guy]

The main difference that I see is that we aren't winning as much, and therefore people aren't treating Buck like he is some kind of God and characterizing every thing he says as some amazing pearl of wisdom.

Well, that was always absurd..coughwildcardcough.

[Frobby]

To me, Gregg should be the setup guy. only because Koji can pitch the 10th, if he gives up a dinger. He isn't going to walk people and given a 2 run cushion is going to convert at a 95%+ rate. Gregg gives walks and is vulnerable to a big inning, plus he can't pitch multiples. I really don't want Gregg on in the 10th with his pitch count elevating. If Koji is pitching the 10th, he probably gave up a dinger while getting out of the inning on < 15 pitches. That is the difference.

I would probably agree with this. As I have said all along, I would prefer Koji as the closer, but I think as a practical matter any impact on the W-L is negligible because Gregg is still going to pitch around the same number of innings and give up the same number of runs regardless of what inning he pitches. It's more traumatic to have a cliffhanger in the 9th than in the 8th, but that's about the only real impact. Koji would probably have fewer appearances in excess of one inning as the closer than he has had as a set-up guy, which isn't necessarily a good thing.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I would probably agree with this. As I have said all along, I would prefer Koji as the closer, but I think as a practical matter any impact on the W-L is negligible because Gregg is still going to pitch around the same number of innings and give up the same number of runs regardless of what inning he pitches. It's more traumatic to have a cliffhanger in the 9th than in the 8th, but that's about the only real impact. Koji would probably have fewer appearances in excess of one inning as the closer than he has had as a set-up guy, which isn't necessarily a good thing.

Right, Koji and JJ can usually come in with men on base and throw strikes. Gregg often can't. I think Buck has it right. Drungo's comments about the LI has me interested though.

[El Gordo]

Right, Koji and JJ can usually come in with men on base and throw strikes. Gregg often can't. I think Buck has it right. Drungo's comments about the LI has me interested though.

The main reason he went with Gregg over Koji, ist hat Koji was having arm problems in ST and couldn't go back to back games. While Gregg struggled early, he has done pretty well since, and by the time Koji was up to speed, Gregg hadn't been bad enough to warrent a changein roles.

[Frobby]

The main reason he went with Gregg over Koji, ist hat Koji was having arm problems in ST and couldn't go back to back games. While Gregg struggled early, he has done pretty well since, and by the time Koji was up to speed, Gregg hadn't been bad enough to warrent a changein roles.

Basically correct, although I am not sure if Buck would have given Koji the closer role as of Opening Day even if he had been healthy. Maybe yes, but he may have had political reasons for giving Gregg the first shot.

[primetime]

Yea..I am surprised Frobby doesn't see much of a difference between 2010 Buck and 2011 Buck.

I've seen you mention this a couple of times about Buck but I have to side with Frobby; I really don't see any difference in Buck. The difference I see is the winning percentage.

Buck didn't do anything radical in the last 57 games of last season. I scanned over the box scores and his lineup was fairly static on a game by game basis. Even after rosters expanded, he pretty much stuck with the same players, in the same spots as his predecessors. Nor did he do a ton of in game manuevering, at least nothing memorable.

He didn't have a true closer but that was mostly dictated by circumstances rather than being an outside the box manager. Gonzalez's injury/underperformance until later in the season played a big part, so Buck used a couple of different guys to close, eventually settling on Koji at closer.

I don't recall him yanking anbody off the field for making a mental mistake or benching anyone as an example. About the only things Buck did was say a lot of the right things when he took over; most likely in an attempt to change the culture/mindset of the team. Basically saying that none of the younger guys have the "right" to be here, it's a privelage. He let everyone know he was evaluating, etc.

Bottom line, the team ERA was about 3.50 in August and September, that's going to result in a lot of wins.

In 2011, Buck has been pretty much the same manager, fairly static lineup, little in game manuevering, static bullpen use (although, using relievers for multiple innings is a plus), no one has lost playing time for mental errors and the bench is used sparingly.

The biggest difference between the last 57 games of 2010 vs. the first 76 games of 2011 is about a run difference in ERA.

I'm curious to know people see as the difference between Buck this year vs. last year because I'm not seeing it.

[El Gordo]

Basically correct, although I am not sure if Buck would have given Koji the closer role as of Opening Day even if he had been healthy. Maybe yes, but he may have had political reasons for giving Gregg the first shot.

I agree with you there as well. I have always suspected there were some contractual "understandings" re: Gregg closing.

[wildcard]

Well, that was always absurd..coughwildcardcough.

Major differences between Buck's last two months 2010 and in 2011.

Matusz: end of 2010 - Healthy with a below 3.00 ERA vs 2011- Hurt

Bergy: end of 2010 - Healthy and pitching well vs 2011- pitched poorly

Tillman: end of 2010 - Healthy and pitch to about a 4.10 ERA vs 2011- spending at least half of it at AAA

Roberts: end of 2010 - Played well and sparked the team vs 2011 - Hurt

Scott:end of 2010 - Hit for a 900 OPS vs 2011 -tore labrum, hurt and not hitting near as well

There have been some improvements in 2011 - Hardy, Britton, Reynolds bat (but not his glove) but nothing else major.

I agree with Frobby that the start pitching makes a huge difference. I also agree that Kranitz probably was better for the team in 2010 then Connor was in 2011.

I agree that Buck has changed how he manages the back end of the pen but it is very hard to tell whether the results have been better or worse.

I still hold Buck in high regard and believe if this team ever gets healthy and adjusted to the AL the team could go on a winning streak similar to last year. Health has not been good to this team.

[Frobby]

Major differences between Buck's last two months 2010 and in 2011.

Matusz: end of 2010 - Healthy with a below 3.00 ERA vs 2011- Hurt

Bergy: end of 2010 - Healthy and pitching well vs 2011- pitched poorly

Tillman: end of 2010 - Healthy and pitch to about a 4.10 ERA vs 2011- spending at least half of it at AAA

Roberts: end of 2010 - Played well and sparked the team vs 2011 - Hurt

Scott:end of 2010 - Hit for a 900 OPS vs 2011 -tore labrum, hurt and not hitting near as well

There have been some improvements in 2011 - Hardy, Britton, Reynolds bat (but not his glove) but nothing else major.

I agree with Frobby that the start pitching makes a huge difference. I also agree that Kranitz probably was better for the team in 2010 then Connor was in 2011.

I agree that Buck has changed how he manages the back end of the pen but it is very hard to tell whether the results have been better or worse.

I still hold Buck in high regard and believe if this team ever gets healthy and adjusted to the AL the team could go on a winning streak similar to last year. Health has not been good to this team.

Good synopsis. I really think these things have way more to do with our lackluster performance compared to last year, than anything Buck has done differently as the manager. As to bullpen management, the BP only had to throw 2.2 innings a game during Buck's two months last year, while this year they are throwing 3.2 innings a game. There is a very direct relationship between the number of innings a bullpen is called upon to pitch and its effectiveness, because a manager can limit use of the worst bullpen guys without overworking his best guys, when the BP isn't needed as much. Buck has much more of a challenge on his hands with this BP because he has had to use them so much.

Now, one thing I will say: I feel Buck pushed his starters a bit more last year. But of course, they were performing well, so why wouldn't he do that? It's much harder to do it when the starters are struggling.

[Roll Tide]

He just doesnt have the horses...Another game over in the 3rd inning!

[Sports Guy]

Frobby isn't the only one who sees almost no difference. The main difference I see is the starters are performing worse so the record is worse so folks are now complaining about the exact same things he did last year when he walked on water. The thread is comical to me. I really think folks would honestly just keep firing managers, GM, and coaches every 2-3 years from now until the end of time without ever once considering if they were reacting to the result rather than the process. The lack of depth in the analysis from so many folks is just staggering to me. And that's fine. Fans don't have to justify their stances or pet peeves. But the revisionist history that so many folks have on here is really something to witness.

Look, I realize that this isn't of any use. The folks clamoring for change have been doing so for years and years and will continue to do so until the Orioles finally win. Whatever, hope they have fun. Meanwhile, I'm going to sit back and enjoy the unintended comedy of the belief that Buck was the man last year when we went 34-23 and suddenly became stupid over the winter.

I could care less about the record.

I don't think he is using the bench or his pitching staff nearly as well as he did last year.

[wildcard]

This. Koji has a durability problem. His arm is basically held together with scotch tape. I like the guy but that is just the truth. Buck has acknowledged it many times in interviews. That issue is the main thing preventing him being the main closer. And again, Gregg has performed fine this year.

I would not be surprised if Koji is traded by the end of July.

I would not call Gregg's performance fine. He needs a long streak of saves without a blown save to reach fine IMO.

[SteveA]

Wow. I have to fall into the camp that I don't see a lot different in Buck. Yes, there was a point this year where I hoped he would be more flexible in whom he used as a closer, when Gregg struggled some early. But he stuck with him, and it's hard to second guess that decision now.

I think that there are a lot of factors going on now. My 83 year old mother complains about the heat in the summer and about the cold in the winter. When you are sweating and hot and muggy, it's hard to forget how miserable it was standing on the corner waiting for a bus back in the winter. Today's suffering always grabs your attention more than the memory of previous suffering.

This team is playing way, way better than it was a year ago. We are 6 games under .500. A year ago today we were 30 games under. That is a HUGE difference. We were doing things that were nearly historical in terms of badness last year, like going 40 games without a multi-run home run or going several weeks without scoring more than two runs in an inning. We feel terrible now, probably as bad as we did last year. Because losing is losing.

Do we still do some stupid things on the bases or in the field? Yes. But I believe they are far fewer now than they were over the past several years, pre-Buck. One problem now is that we are in most every game. In the past 33 games,. we have only lost 6 games by more than 3 runs, and only TWO games by more than 4 runs. We lost 25 of our first 99 games last year by more than 4 runs, over a quarter of them, and over a third by at least 4. So last year when we did something stupid on the field or on the bases, it probably didn't cost us the game. We were already out of it. And the team was so bad you couldn't do much else but have a sort of gallows humor about it.

This year, when we make a stupid mistake as players will occasionally do, it means the difference between winning and losing a series vs the Nationals or Pirates.

We've had some significant injuires. We definitely have some players who have underperformed. You watch this team hit, especially now when the hitting is really coming together, and you know they can score runs. We know what some of our young pitchers are capable of even if they are going through injuries or slumps at the moment. There IS enough talent here to be .500, and so every loss is frustrating. And emotionally we feel as bad now as we did watching a team last year that was far, far inferior to this, that was 30 games under .500.

Despite everything, this team will likely put up the most wins in the past 6 years, maybe even the best in the past 13 years. But the mood of the fan base right now, because we are burdened with those years of losing and had hopes of a winning season, is probably as low now as it was last year when we were 30 under, and lower than other seasons when we had comparable records to this. In other words, our mood does not correlate with our record the way you would think. We feel ****tier being 6 under than we have in years past when we might have been 15 under at this point.

This is emotion, not fact. The fact is, it's a long season, we still have a shot at a .500 season despite being predicted to win about 78 games by most experts, and despite having some important injuries. I don't necessarily agree with every move Buck has made, but I believe he has brought a level of accountability that has been lacking in past years. Sending down Tillman and Bergeson, DFA'ing Accardo and Rapada and Fox -- this sends a message. Produce or you are gone. I like that, and I think it will make a difference in the long run.

[iconjax2006]

Let's face it. Something has to give before the Orioles can be competitive no matter who's running the team. Baseball needs a salary cap. Just like it was when the cowboys,49's bought all the players so does Redsox's and Yankee and St.Louis, Phi...