Should the Orioles sign Hardy to a 3 year contract extension?

[glenn__davis]

Gotta use a little common sense here.

Obviously, Hardy isn't getting dealt for less than what the value of 2 picks would be. He fetches a minimum of that and remember, one of those picks is likely to be a first rounder and the other will be a sandwich pick...So, say 2 of the top 45ish picks in the draft.

And the contract he is likely to get will be 8-11 million a year. An extra million or so a year isn't really going to change things.

But that's the thing, it's a lot more than just saying "more than the value of 2 picks".

What are the players coming back? How do they fit the needs of our team? How do they fit our organizational philosophy (assuming we actually had one)? How do they blend with what we already have in place?

I mean, I guess I just never really get these threads. Bottom line, I'd like to see him extended. But if a very good trade package is offered, I'd have no problem with that. But isn't that pretty much true of every player?

[UMDTerrapins]

What good does a shortstop in his prime do for a team that is destined to finish 4th or 5th in the AL East in each of the next 3 seasons? So it is a much better move to give a 28 year old injury-prone shortstop on a below .500 team a 3/$24M-$27M deal than it is to trade them for two quality prospects and save that $24M over the next three years in the process?

So, since it is full of holes, we should keep those players who can fill the holes and depth to the organization?

How is that different from what we have done in the past and how has that strategy worked out for us?

Let's be honest here, the Orioles are not going into a full scale rebuilding project. If you want to trade Hardy because you want to improve depth, then you can't stop there. You have to go into a full scale fire sale. They're not going to do that. This one decision and the realities we're dealing with.....you sign the guy and lock down the position for now (Hardy) and the future (Machado).

Give us a different owner and a different GM and my opinion could change.

[Sports Guy]

Let's be honest here, the Orioles are not going into a full scale rebuilding project. If you want to trade Hardy because you want to improve depth, then you can't stop there. You have to go into a full scale fire sale. They're not going to do that. This one decision and the realities we're dealing with.....you sign the guy and lock down the position for now (Hardy) and the future (Machado).

Give us a different owner and a different GM and my opinion could change.

Why can't you stop there? Hardy has been a part of this team for a few months and is slated to be a FA after this season.

[GoldGlove21]

I do not think trading him is even an option. I think we either sign him now, wait and try and sign him at the end of the year or take the picks. I don't think AM is even thinking trade. But what do I know.

I would be happy with taking the picks if I were a Red Sox or Rays fan, but the Orioles do not show a history of developing high level talent in the appropriate manner. It is also worth noting that next year is a weak draft which drives down the value of those two picks IMO. I would lean towards the side of getting the best prospect possible for Hardy or a combination of a highly regarded prospect and one or two low level guys with high upsides.

If the Orioles could get Alonso and a guy like Billy Hamilton or Yasmani Grandal then I make the trade. The Brewers, Braves, Padres, Pirates, Mariners, Twins, Giants and Rays all look to need upgrade at shortstop. Most if not all of those teams have good minor league systems and would match up well. The Orioles could even package Koji with Hardy to net another player if the opportunity presented itself.

The Orioles should trade the guy at this point, he would likely be more valuable gone than here.

[UMDTerrapins]

Why can't you stop there? Hardy has been a part of this team for a few months and is slated to be a FA after this season.

But your reasoning for dealing him is to improve organizational depth. The return for Hardy alone (for a 3 month rental) won't help you in that regard.

[Sports Guy]

But your reasoning for dealing him is to improve organizational depth. The return for Hardy alone (for a 3 month rental) won't help you in that regard.

Well that depends on what you get for him.

Do you get an answer at a position of need with someone who is much cheaper and younger and has as much talent and upside at his position as Hardy does at his?

If you can, then you are better off because of service time, age and payroll considerations long term.

However, I do not think they should stop at trading Hardy...i just don't think its accurate to say what you said in the context in which you said it.

[El Gordo]

But your reasoning for dealing him is to improve organizational depth. The return for Hardy alone (for a 3 month rental) won't help you in that regard.

If you think you can win in the next 3 years you should extend Hardy. IMO he is the best SS option for that time frams. Better than Reyes because he is cheaper, no more injury prone, and actually plays hard here, with no "issues". If you don't think you can win, it makes no sense to simply trade Hardy. You need to go whole hog and trade everyone you can get anything for, who won't be here for more than 3 years.

[El Gordo]

Well that depends on what you get for him.

Do you get an answer at a position of need with someone who is much cheaper and younger and has as much talent and upside at his position as Hardy does at his?

If you can, then you are better off because of service time, age and payroll considerations long term.

However, I do not think they should stop at trading Hardy...i just don't think its accurate to say what you said in the context in which you said it.

Since we pretty much know who the teams would be, what do you think is the best we can get for him?

[GoldGlove21]

Let's be honest here, the Orioles are not going into a full scale rebuilding project. If you want to trade Hardy because you want to improve depth, then you can't stop there. You have to go into a full scale fire sale. They're not going to do that. This one decision and the realities we're dealing with.....you sign the guy and lock down the position for now (Hardy) and the future (Machado).

Give us a different owner and a different GM and my opinion could change.

That short sighted look into how we operate is the exact same reason why we have failed while teams with fewer resources have succeeded. JJ Hardy is not Jose Reyes, he is not going to morph our lineup into something it is not and JJ Hardy has a history of injuries. Any GM worth their salt would be trading Hardy off of this bad team and building for the future. Trading Hardy does not mean that we are in a fire sale. I am just tired of watching the Orioles role over the same lineup sprinkled with a different aging veteran and expect a different outcome. Go young, inexpensive and controlled and up the idea of building $85M teams that are not much better than the ones you fielded for $60M. Guys like Scott, Lee and Guerrero may have roles on many teams in the game, but the three guys are kind of redundant when you really think about it. We could almost afford one year of a guy like Fielder for that much and he would be a much better value.

[Frobby]

I am sure the trade package we would get for him would be very strong.

But even putting that aside for a second...Is 3 years too many for Hardy? The answer to that, if he stays healthy or even can play 130 games a year, is definitely a no.

But what if he plays 100 games a year? Then what?

Law is right, oft injured players tend to keep getting injured, especially as they get older.

So, what should we assume here? I would assume that he averages 115 games a year for the next 3 years.

Now, in those 3 years, he could still very well be worth his contract in terms of WAR. But is just being worth his contract good enough?

Its the same argument we had with BRob. I felt BRob would end up being worth his contract if he stayed healthy but still didn't see it being a smart move and it was too much of a risk because of age and position. Now, I think many of us would be happy to dump the deal or even see him retire and take that money off the books.

I am willing to take the injury risk with Hardy. He is only 28 years old. He does have some injury history, but they seem to be three unrelated injuries and none of them caused him to miss more than 2 months of a season or seem to have had any lasting effect. Signing a guy to a deal covering his age 29-31 seasons sounds relatively safe, even though there is always some risk involved.

[UMDTerrapins]

If you think you can win in the next 3 years you should extend Hardy. IMO he is the best SS option for that time frams. Better than Reyes because he is cheaper, no more injury prone, and actually plays hard here, with no "issues". If you don't think you can win, it makes no sense to simply trade Hardy. You need to go whole hog and trade everyone you can get anything for, who won't be here for more than 3 years.

I agree with this. Hardy is a cog on a winner.......reminds me of a guy Gillick would have locked up. Surhoff-like in a way. If we feel like the core of this rebuild (Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Tillman, Jones, Wieters) isn't good enough to building upon, then trade every last asset we can get good value for...including Hardy. I just don't see how anyone can separate from the reality that the O's are NOT going to concede defeat with this group anytime soon. Blowing it up isn't on the table, so dealing one or two useful guys at the deadline gets us nowhere. Except with a few more prospects and newly created gaping holes at critical positions.

[GoldGlove21]

Since we pretty much know who the teams would be, what do you think is the best we can get for him?

I think we could get:

Braves: One of Delgado/Vizcaino/Minor straight up

Reds: Alonso+ (Would shoot for Billy Hamilton if we add Koji + low level prospect)

Mariners: Nick Franklin+

Twins: Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson (Add Koji)

Padres: Simon Casto+

Rangers: Jurickson Profar straight up

Red Sox: Anthony Renaudo straight up

Pirates: Stetson Allie straight up

I really do think we could get a top-30-75 prospect and another quality prospect if the prospect is closer to the 70 range than the 30 range. I think if the Orioles could find a team needing a shortstop and reliever then we might be able to move both Hardy and Koji for a better package.

[UMDTerrapins]

I am willing to take the injury risk with Hardy. He is only 28 years old. He does have some injury history, but they seem to be three unrelated injuries and none of them caused him to miss more than 2 months of a season or seem to have had any lasting effect. Signing a guy to a deal covering his age 29-31 seasons sounds relatively safe, even though there is always some risk involved.

Same here. He's not a guy like Guthrie or Scott who are leaving their prime and are under contract for more than just this season. Scott's injury was brutal because he absolutely should have been dealt. Guthrie absolutely should be dealt. Very different situations than Hardy.

[UMDTerrapins]

Well that depends on what you get for him.

Do you get an answer at a position of need with someone who is much cheaper and younger and has as much talent and upside at his position as Hardy does at his?

If you can, then you are better off because of service time, age and payroll considerations long term.

However, I do not think they should stop at trading Hardy...i just don't think its accurate to say what you said in the context in which you said it.

Not really sure which part you're referring to, but I think we've beaten the horse well enough to know where we differ.

[TGO]

I think we could get:

Braves: One of Delgado/Vizcaino/Minor straight up

Reds: Alonso+ (Would shoot for Billy Hamilton if we add Koji + low level prospect)

Mariners: Nick Franklin+

Twins: Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson (Add Koji)

Padres: Simon Casto+

Rangers: Jurickson Profar straight up

Red Sox: Anthony Renaudo straight up

Pirates: Stetson Allie straight up

I really do think we could get a top-30-75 prospect and another quality prospect if the prospect is closer to the 70 range than the 30 range. I think if the Orioles could find a team needing a shortstop and reliever then we might be able to move both Hardy and Koji for a better package.

The Twins, Mariners and Padres are likely done. They won't be adding rental players. Texas doesn't need a SS. Boston may prefer to go for pitching and stick with Lawrie/Scutaro.