BA: Adam Jones 2nd best defensive OF in the AL

[AgentOrange]

He'd be a better corner OF defensively.

That's pretty obvious. His bat is borderline elite for a CF.

[AgentOrange]

It never ceases to amaze me how upset people get about things like this. By the way, FG says Jones has the best CF arm - I guess that's wrong as well?

Isn't it easier to watch TV and compare arms?

Much harder to watch all the games and slap values on each play. I can't trust defensive stats until field F/X is implemented.

[El Gordo]

To begin with the BA article has him rated by the AL managers as #2 defensive OF. The same guys who vote on the GG awards. Here is the FB rankings for CF currently:

RS

Peter Bourjos 21

Carlos Gomez 17

Jacoby Ellsbury 13

Rick Ankiel 12

Franklin Gutierrez 10

Cameron Maybin 10

Austin Jackson 10

Ben Revere 9

Andrew McCutchen 9

Coco Crisp 7

Only one of these guys is better than AJ with the glove? And this list doesn't even include Gardner and Crawford.

[crawjo]

I will take the AL Managers judgement over Fangraphs everytime.

So then you also think that Derek Jeter is a great defensive shortstop.

[DrOrioles90210]

What it comes down to for me is that the Fangraphs stats that make up UZR are subjective. The reviewers that rate whether fielder are in zone/out of zone are all subjective.

Subjective somewhat, but the areas that are subjective are averaged out for every similar play in every game over a 6 year period. Fangraphs go so far to make this process as objective as possible, yet you take a completely subjective process (manager voting) over something that is the least subjective as possible (until we have field f/x).

[crawjo]

Also, since the word of AL Managers is apparently gospel, I guess Rafael Palmeiro really was the best first baseman in the league the year he played about 20 games there.

[AgentOrange]

Subjective somewhat, but the areas that are subjective are averaged out for every similar play in every game over a 6 year period. Fangraphs go so far to make this process as objective as possible, yet you take a completely subjective process (manager voting) over something that is the least subjective as possible (until we have field f/x).

I think its great that they are trying to do these things to put statistics to defensive stats. I think there are too many grey areas. If they had a person at every stadium watching the games, it would hold more weight with me. You could then track much more information and be even more accurate. That is unrealistic to have that, with that many grey areas, I can't take these stats seriously.

The only thing positive with these statistics is that they are using the same measures for everyone. But if you are just watching the games on TV, you are missing out on a lot of things that need to taking into account when measuring defensive worth. Unless they have camera angles that the common viewer can't see, I find it hard to put accurate values on these things.

Not to mention some people use these statsitics as fact, I just find it very funny.

[El Gordo]

What it comes down to for me is that the Fangraphs stats that make up UZR are subjective. The reviewers that rate whether fielder are in zone/out of zone are all subjective. However the numbers are pretty much used by many like batting averages or OPS are. Which is very misleading.

If I have to take the word of the AL Managers subjectivity or Fangraphs reviewers. I go with the AL Managers. They have dedicated their lives to evaluating players. We don't even know who the reviewers at Fangraphs are.

How are the AL managers any less subjective? They aren't watching every play of every fielder and comparing it in an organized way with ever other fielder at a position. There is a certain amount of subjectivety to the BIS method(mostly determining wheter a ball is a FB or LD; hard, medium, soft, though they will be introducing specific velocities on each ball shortly) But it is by far more effecient than the manager's eyeball method. How many games does Scioscia get to see Jones play vs Guteirrez? BIS gets to see 162 of each.

[AgentOrange]

How are the AL managers any less subjective? They aren't watching every play of every fielder and comparing it in an organized way with ever other fielder at a position. There is a certain amount of subjectivety to the BIS method(mostly determining wheter a ball is a FB or LD; hard, medium, soft, though they will be introducing specific velocities on each ball shortly) But it is by far more effecient than the manager's eyeball method. How many games does Scioscia get to see Jones play vs Guteirrez? BIS gets to see 162 of each.

Do you think that the managers just base their opinions when watching them play a couple times a year, or do they factor in advance scouting information as well as what happens during the games?

[El Gordo]

I think its great that they are trying to do these things to put statistics to defensive stats. I think there are too many grey areas. If they had a person at every stadium watching the games, it would hold more weight with me. You could then track much more information and be even more accurate. That is unrealistic to have that, with that many grey areas, I can't take these stats seriously.

The only thing positive with these statistics is that they are using the same measures for everyone. But if you are just watching the games on TV, you are missing out on a lot of things that need to taking into account when measuring defensive worth. Unless they have camera angles that the common viewer can't see, I find it hard to put accurate values on these things.

Not to mention some people use these statsitics as fact, I just find it very funny.

What I find funny is that people who seem to have no idea of how these numbers are arrived at are the ones most likely to dismiss them.:rolleyestf:

[AgentOrange]

What I find funny is that people who seem to have no idea of how these numbers are arrived at are the ones most likely to dismiss them.:rolleyestf:

How do they come up with the numbers then? I have read articles about it, do you have any other ones to share?

You are the main reason I hate defensive statistics. You use them as fact all the time.

[DrOrioles90210]

I think its great that they are trying to do these things to put statistics to defensive stats. I think there are too many grey areas. If they had a person at every stadium watching the games, it would hold more weight with me. You could then track much more information and be even more accurate. That is unrealistic to have that, with that many grey areas, I can't take these stats seriously.

The only thing positive with these statistics is that they are using the same measures for everyone. But if you are just watching the games on TV, you are missing out on a lot of things that need to taking into account when measuring defensive worth. Unless they have camera angles that the common viewer can't see, I find it hard to put accurate values on these things.

I think it's a little more in-depth than you assume.

How does UZR determine how much credit, positive or negative, to award a fielder on each batted ball? First it goes through 6 years of batted ball data and determines how often each type and location of batted ball is fielded by each defensive position, making adjustments for the speed of the ball, and the handedness, speed, and power of the batter. Later on, further adjustments are made, such as the outs and base runners, and various park adjustments, like the size and configuration of the OF, the speed of the infield, and the speed of batted balls in general, as influenced by temperature, altitude, and the ground ball percentage of the pitcher.

Here's a link to the full article.

[Sports Guy]

How do they come up with the numbers then? I have read articles about it, do you have any other ones to share?

You are the main reason I hate defensive statistics. You use them as fact all the time.

Do you think Jones is the second best DEFENSIVE CFer in the AL?

[El Gordo]

Do you think that the managers just base their opinions when watching them play a couple times a year, or do they factor in advance scouting information as well as what happens during the games?

I think when they are asked to answer a question in a poll, they go with an impression off the top of their head. They don't have the time or inclination to sort out all the scouting reperts and BIS ifo that they see as well, and make serious comparison. They say to themselves, e.g. Torii Hunter has always been a good CF he seems to be on his game this year, I'll pick him. If you were to ask me to rate the best defensive OF in the AL I'd say Guteirrez. But the various metric systems don't have him as #1 this year, the consenses seems to be Bourjos this year. He is among the leaders though. and I picked him becuase he has always been a consistently good OF no matter where he plays. I think the managers do the same thing.

[JTrea81]

Torii Hunter didn't have great UZR numbers either, but it was his reputation for making that flashy play that gave him those GGs.

Jones is the next Torii Hunter.