What kind of contract do you think Markakis would have gotten this offseason if he were a free agent

[ShaneDawg85]

Trea, you have had strong opinions on things in the past that I did not agree on, but I could at least understand where you were coming from. Your utter disgust of Markakis, however, is completely and totally unfathomable to me?????

It's money that should be going to Prince Fielder, Jamie Moyer, Randy Wolf, and Chone Figgins, don't ya know?

[Pedro Cerrano]

Look at those huge deals that were signed by Dunn, Werth and Crawford this past offseason and look at the result.

You don't think the owners and GMs would be a little bit hesitant to throw around that kind of money again, especially with the economy still struggling and multiple owners in financial trouble?

No, once again you're assuming how others think/act. Bad contracts have been handed out in baseball for years now, whether the economy is great or sucks. It hasn't stopped GMs from doing it over and over again.

[DrungoHazewood]

In any thread like this there are always outliers, always folks who are going to come up with an estimate that's not based in any kind of semi-objective reality, but in biases and idiosyncratic beliefs. Trea's loopy evaluation here is in that category. Even a very simple Marcels kind of evaluation would give Markakis a 4/50 deal. The idea that a 27-year-old player who could reasonably be valued at 4/50 would actually get 2/16 is ridiculous, obviously.

Almost as ridiculous as suggesting that the O's were going to sign Prince Fielder to a 7/175 deal. Or Mark Teixiera to a 8/200+ deal.

[Sports Guy]

Trea, you have had strong opinions on things in the past that I did not agree on, but I could at least understand where you were coming from. Your utter disgust of Markakis, however, is completely and totally unfathomable to me?????

Well, OldFan does post on his board....

[Frobby]

Not really a perfect comp, but after Dan Uggla was traded to the Braves this winter, in his last year before free agency, he signed a 5/$62mm deal with the Braves. Going into the season, Uggla had a career OPS of .826 and OPS+ of 118, and his cumulative rWAR from 2006-2011 was 15.4. In that same period, Nick had an .831 OPS, 117 OPS+, and 17.9 rWAR. Obviously, Uggla is a very good-hitting 2B, but his defense is very poor. Nick's hitting is not that outstanding for a RF, but he fields his position much better than Uggla. He's also 3 years younger than Uggla was when he negotiated his deal. I think it's pretty obvious that Nick as a FA could easily get a 4 year deal and quite possibly 5. Maybe the average annual salary would be less than Uggla's but I'm not too sure of that. Not significantly less, I think.

[DrungoHazewood]

In 2008 Torii Hunter was 31, had a career OPS+ of 104, and at this point was not the superior defensive center fielder his reputation suggested. Objectively he wasn't as valuable as Nick - older, worse hitter, only a little more valuable in the field. He got a 5/90 deal.

Aaron Rowand was pretty similar. A center fielder who was clearly a worse hitter than Markakis, 106 OPS+. Not a superior defender. Older. Prior to his age 30 season he signed a 5/60 deal.

Jacque Jones signed a 3/16 deal with the Cubs in 2006. He was basically a platoon player, he had a 103 career OPS+, but only two above-average seasons with the bat. He was about to turn 31. So, here's a case of a player getting a deal in the neighborhood of what Trea is suggesting, but he was far lower in quality and older than Nick.

Milton Bradley signed a 3/30 deal with the Mariners despite 1) being fragile 2) being wildly inconsistent 3) coming off a down year 4) being 32 years old and 5) being insane.

Corey Hart signed a 3/26.5 deal buying out some arb/free agency years. His performances have been quite Markakis-like, interspersing All Star years with indifferent seasons. In free agency it's easy to see him getting far more than that.

[SrMeowMeow]

It wouldn't shock me to see Markakis get a 3-4 year deal worth 10-14M annually. But it also wouldn't shock me if he got a lot less. If he wasn't an Oriole, I'd write him off after a glance at his stats.

[Sports Guy]

It wouldn't shock me to see Markakis get a 3-4 year deal worth 10-14M annually. But it also wouldn't shock me if he got a lot less. If he wasn't an Oriole, I'd write him off after a glance at his stats.

No you wouldn't..If he wasn't an Oriole, his stats would probably be better.

[SrMeowMeow]

No you wouldn't..If he wasn't an Oriole, his stats would probably be better.

I see no objective reason to think that.

[Sports Guy]

I see no objective reason to think that.

Glad to hear it.

[SrMeowMeow]

Glad to hear it.

Sorry - let me reword. There is no reason to think that Markakis would be better had he played for another team.

[Sports Guy]

Sorry - let me reword. There is no reason to think that Markakis would be better had he played for another team.

Glad to hear that you think that. Between the revelations from you and mweb today, I will sleep better tonight.

[DrungoHazewood]

I see no objective reason to think that.

You really think this? I mean, I wouldn't expect him to be a triple crown candidate on another team, but I could certainly see him performing better on a team that doesn't expect him to carry the franchise every day. Give him some better coaching, better support systems, better atmosphere, playing in games that matter after May, and I'm nearly certain he'd put up better numbers.

Heck, even just trading him to the Red Sox or Yanks would jack his numbers by getting to face Oriole pitching 19 times a year. Think of this - someone who's played for the Red Sox for 10 years has probably gotten 19 * 4 *10 = 760, or basically an entire year of PAs against pathetic Orioles pitching. In fact, David Ortiz has 726 PAs against the Orioles.

[Pedro Cerrano]

You really think this? I mean, I wouldn't expect him to be a triple crown candidate on another team, but I could certainly see him performing better on a team that doesn't expect him to carry the franchise every day. Give him some better coaching, better support systems, better atmosphere, playing in games that matter after May, and I'm nearly certain he'd put up better numbers.

Heck, even just trading him to the Red Sox or Yanks would jack his numbers by getting to face Oriole pitching 19 times a year. Think of this - someone who's played for the Red Sox for 10 years has probably gotten 19 * 4 *10 = 760, or basically an entire year of PAs against pathetic Orioles pitching. In fact, David Ortiz has 726 PAs against the Orioles.

Which, of course, begs the question. Is the Orioles' pitching pathetic because they have to face David Ortiz or is David Ortiz good because he faces Oriole pitching?

Chicken or the egg?

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Sorry - let me reword. There is no reason to think that Markakis would be better had he played for another team.

Taking Markakis out of the O's lineup and into the Yanks or Sox lineup is the polar opposite of taking Jason Werth out of the Phillies lineup and into the Nationals. Pretty sure it has an impact.