TT: The Orioles must have an impact offseason

[Sports Guy]

Roch says to expect the new GM to take a much more aggressive approach to free agency:

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/10/macphail-leaving-organization.html

That's not neccassarily good news, even for what you want this team to do.

Its all about going after the right FAs, not just FAs.

There is a distinct difference there.

[DrungoHazewood]

How many times have argued this same argument. Not as effectively has you just did but still. I am a big believer. UZR just is not accurate enough to trust.

Yep, but it's better than like eyes, or fielding percentage or range factor. It's the worst defensive metric except for all the others.

[OFFNY]

Markakis: FB -10, Rtot -4. UZR -5

Swisher: FB -5, Rtot +13, UZR +8

I know, your eyeball system is deadly accurate, and these metrics can't be trusted, and you have no personal bias whatsoever. :rolleyestf:

Here. Markakis is a better defensive righttfielder than Swisher is. And not just because I say so. Roll your eyeballs all you want.

MARKAKIS oooooooo SWISHER

Fielding % as RF ooooo Fielding % as RF

2006 AL .996 (1st) oooo 2005 AL .990 (5th)

2011 AL .996 (2nd) oooo 2011 AL .996 (2nd)

2007 AL .994 (2nd) .

2008 AL .991 (5th) .

2010 AL .991 (3rd) .

2011 AL 1.000 (1st) .

Active .992 (1st) ooooo Active .987 (6th)

__________________________________________________________

Range Factor/Per Game RF oooo Range Factor/Per Game RF

2008 AL 2.21 (3rd) ooooooooooooo 2010 AL 2.05 (4th)

2010 AL 2.13 (3rd) .

2011 AL 2.07 (4th) .

Active 2.04 (6th) ooooooooooooo Active 1.88 (14th)

________________________________________________________________ ___

Errors Committed RF oooooooooooo Errors Committed RF

Active 15 (21st) (1,897 Chances) oo Active 15 (21st) (1,155 Chances)

________________________________________________________________________

Assists as RF oooooooooooooooooooooooo Assists as RF

2007 AL 13 (5th) .

2008 AL 17 (1st) .

2009 AL 13 (2nd) .

2011 AL 14 (5th) .

Active 71 (6th) (921 Games, 7,878 Innings) Active 29 (22nd) (606 Games, 4.935 Innings)

[DrungoHazewood]

Here. Markakis is a better defensive righttfielder than Swisher is. And not just because I say so. Roll your eyeballs all you want.

MARKAKIS oooooooo SWISHER

Fielding % as RF ooooo Fielding % as RF

2006 AL .996 (1st) oooo 2005 AL .990 (5th)

2011 AL .996 (2nd) oooo 2011 AL .996 (2nd)

2007 AL .994 (2nd) .

2008 AL .991 (5th) .

2010 AL .991 (3rd) .

2011 AL 1.000 (1st) .

Active .992 (1st) ooooo Active .987 (6th)

__________________________________________________________

Range Factor/Per Game RF oooo Range Factor/Per Game RF

2008 AL 2.21 (3rd) ooooooooooooo 2010 AL 2.05 (4th)

2010 AL 2.13 (3rd) .

2011 AL 2.07 (4th) .

Active 2.04 (6th) ooooooooooooo Active 1.88 (14th)

________________________________________________________________ ___

Errors Committed RF oooooooooooo Errors Committed RF

Active 15 (21st) (1,897 Chances) oo Active 15 (21st) (1,155 Chances)

________________________________________________________________________

Assists as RF oooooooooooooooooooooooo Assists as RF

2007 AL 13 (5th) .

2008 AL 17 (1st) .

2009 AL 13 (2nd) .

2011 AL 14 (5th) .

Active 71 (6th) (921 Games, 7,878 Innings) Active 29 (22nd) (606 Games, 4.935 Innings)

Now show me some numbers that either weren't invented in 1871 because they kind of seemed like a good idea at the time (all the traditional stuff), or haven't been publicly disavowed by their creator (Bill James, range factor).

[OFFNY]

Now show me some numbers that either weren't invented in 1871 because they kind of seemed like a good idea at the time (all the traditional stuff), or haven't been publicly disavowed by their creator (Bill James, range factor).

Assists, errors, and fielding percentage. They ARE "good ideas", regardless of when they were invented. I know that you want to cling to the notion that the svelte, athletic Swisher is as good a fielder as the slow, uncoordinated Markakis, but he isn't.

[Hank Scorpio]

Roch says to expect the new GM to take a much more aggressive approach to free agency:

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/10/macphail-leaving-organization.html

It's hard to be aggressive when nobody wants to play here and your owner is cheap.

[DrungoHazewood]

Assists, errors, and fielding percentage. They ARE "good ideas", regardless of when they were invented. I know that you want to cling to the notion that the svelte, athletic Swisher is as good a fielder as the slow, uncoordinated Markakis, but he isn't.

You still haven't shown me much of anything that says otherwise.

[OFFNY]

You still haven't shown me much of anything that says otherwise.

I gave you solid evidence. Markakis has a decided advantage in every major defensive statistic when compared to Nick Swisher. But ....... because Drungo Hazewood says that these stats "weren't invented in 1871 because they kind of seemed like a good idea at the time", it doesn't really mean much. Crossing the plate to score a run was also invented in the 19th century. Are you're going to dispute the legitimacy of that statistic as well ???

You're a hypocrite, because you are doing exactly what you said that I was doing. Nick Markakis having a decided advantage in every major defensive statistic over Nick Swisher is not evidence that he is a better fielder because ............ because you said so.

That's dangerously close to arguing Nick is a better fielder than Swisher because you say Nick is a better fielder than Swisher.

[DrungoHazewood]

I gave you solid evidence. Markakis has a decided advantage in every major defensive statistic when compared to Nick Swisher. But ....... because Drungo Hazewood says that these stats "weren't invented in 1871 because they kind of seemed like a good idea at the time", it doesn't really mean much. Crossing the plate to score a run was also invented in the 19th century. Are you're going to dispute the legitimacy of that statistic as well ???

You're a hypocrite, because you are doing exactly what you said that I was doing. Nick Markakis having a decided advantage in every major defensive statistic over Nick Swisher is not evidence that he is a better fielder because ............ because you said so.

The Reader's Digest condensed version:

Traditional fielding stats are flawed in many basic ways. First, all teams have to get about 27 outs per game, so starting off all teams look about the same in traditional defensive metrics. A team of nine Prince Fielders would have the same range factor as a team of nine JJ Hardys. But it's even worse than that, bad teams often strike out fewer opposing batters, so their fielders get more chances (see, the Orioles, most every year. They're almost always near the bottom in Ks). More chances mean higher range factor. Assists are subject to similar problems. Bad teams have more opposing baserunners on, so bad teams' fielders get more opportunities for assists.

Moving on to other biases... putouts and assists are heavily influenced by: 1) park effects 2) G/F ratio of pitching staff 3) handedness of pitching staff 4) skill of teammates. The numbers you've quoted don't adjust for any of that.

It's been well documented in various sources, for example, Bill James' Win Shares, that these biases often overwhelm the traditional data. It's not uncommon for someone like Adam Jones to lead the league in range factor while being a well below average defender once you take these things into account. The Orioles have a flyball heavy staff, they had more righties than average this year (so more LH batter who tend to hit the ball Markakis' way).

About half of what you quoted is errors or fielding percentage. That's fine, so long as you acknowledge that more than 99% of all balls hit to the outfield don't result in an error. Over the last three years Nick has made 9 errors, Swisher 10. That's about a 1/2 a run advantage for Nick over three years. It's literally almost nothing, and that's half of what you quoted as evidence.

So, again, why are your Henry Chadwick numbers real proof Nick is better than Swisher?