Defense?

[El Gordo]

Conventional OH wisdom has it we are terrible on defense. UZR has us second worst to the Mets with a -53.6 RS. Much of that is Reynolds at 3B. But if we were to make Reynolds a DH and play Longoria at 3B: 10.7 RS, AGonz at 1B: 11.1 RS, and Alex Gordon in LF: 10.5 RS, that would barely make us average. So how do we improve our defense?

[sangar]

One thing that Showalter preached when he came in was fundamentally sound baseball. I don't have the opportunity to watch as many games as I would like but, in the games I did watch, "fundamentally sound" would not have been the term I used to describe our defense. Better coaching, films, and an adherence to advanced scouting reports might be a good beginning.

[Frobby]

Conventional OH wisdom has it we are terrible on defense. UZR has us second worst to the Mets with a -53.6 RS. Much of that is Reynolds at 3B. But if we were to make Reynolds a DH and play Longoria at 3B: 10.7 RS, AGonz at 1B: 11.1 RS, and Alex Gordon in LF: 10.5 RS, that would barely make us average. So how do we improve our defense?

First of all, I'd gladly take average. By dWAR, we've been below average every year from 2006 to 2011, with this year being -5.5 dWAR which equates to 55 runs below average on defense. If we could make that up, that would be huge.

As you know, I have reservations about defensive metrics. For example, dWAR says Adam Jones was +0.6 in 2010, and -1.7 in 2011, and I don't believe that reflects reality. In my opinion, Jones was as good or better in 2011 than in 2010.

So, it's really hard for me to answer your question, except to say I'd like to find a better defensive 3B for sure.

[CA-ORIOLE]

First of all, I'd gladly take average. By dWAR, we've been below average every year from 2006 to 2011, with this year being -5.5 dWAR which equates to 55 runs below average on defense. If we could make that up, that would be huge.

As you know, I have reservations about defensive metrics. For example, dWAR says Adam Jones was +0.6 in 2010, and -1.7 in 2011, and I don't believe that reflects reality. In my opinion, Jones was as good or better in 2011 than in 2010.

So, it's really hard for me to answer your question, except to say I'd like to find a better defensive 3B for sure.

Why would you be using bbref dWAR when it's vastly inferior to UZR and FB?

Even considering Jones was as good as last year, performance is relative to how the other fielders did.

[Frobby]

Why would you be using bbref dWAR when it's vastly inferior to UZR and FB?

Even considering Jones was as good as last year, performance is relative to how the other fielders did.

Why is it vastly inferior?

I don't have access to FB. As to UZR, I don't find it particularly reliable. I'm not claiming BB-ref's dWAR is any better.

[Sparkwinder]

This is a reality-check thread, unfortunately. Orioles front office knows that home-runs will put more fans in the stands than defense will. Given that this organization is run in a risk-averse fashion with overwhelming regard for the bottom line, I don't expect the O's defensive woes to improve under current ownership. I expect to continue to see guys like Mark Reynolds and Luke Scott signed. To the casual fan, offense is exciting, defense is irrelevant. And the O's are all about selling to the casual fan right now.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Why is it vastly inferior?

I don't have access to FB. As to UZR, I don't find it particularly reliable. I'm not claiming BB-ref's dWAR is any better.

BBref uses Total Zone (TZ). Basically and enhanced zone rating. Good for historical reference but not anywhere close to the top two. It doesn't measure where a ball was hit, how hard it was hit and at what vector. It only measures that a ball was hit in a large zone or a player made a play outside a zone without regards to the difficulty. As an example, imagine Adam Jones stepping into LF and in front of the LF to grab a routine flyball (shouldn't be that hard to imagine since he does it fairly regularly). TZ gives him credit for that where UZR/FB calls BS.

FB and UZR stats are both on fangraphs now.

[Frobby]

BBref uses Total Zone (TZ). Basically and enhanced zone rating. Good for historical reference but not anywhere close to the top two. It doesn't measure where a ball was hit, how hard it was hit and at what vector. It only measures that a ball was hit in a large zone or a player made a play outside a zone without regards to the difficulty. As an example, imagine Adam Jones stepping into LF and in front of the LF to grab a routine flyball (shouldn't be that hard to imagine since he does it fairly regularly). TZ gives him credit for that where UZR/FB calls BS.

FB and UZR stats are both on fangraphs now.

Thanks for the explanation, though I'm not seeing FB on fangraphs.

[Fan4Life]

First of all, I'd gladly take average. By dWAR, we've been below average every year from 2006 to 2011, with this year being -5.5 dWAR which equates to 55 runs below average on defense. If we could make that up, that would be huge.

As you know, I have reservations about defensive metrics. For example, dWAR says Adam Jones was +0.6 in 2010, and -1.7 in 2011, and I don't believe that reflects reality. In my opinion, Jones was as good or better in 2011 than in 2010.

So, it's really hard for me to answer your question, except to say I'd like to find a better defensive 3B for sure.

I have a question... most of us are suspect of defensive metrics etc.... however if the system (however flawed) uses the same processes, can we at least believe we are as awful as it states when comparing to other teams, or, is there so much subjectivity involved that it really isn't reliable at all?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Thanks for the explanation, though I'm not seeing FB on fangraphs.

You're welcome. They are to the left of the UZR numbers in the advanced fielding section. FB numbers are rsb through DRS. The components correlate closely with UZR components but there are some differences. Main thing I don't like is FB doesn't have a rate factor (i.e UZR/150) for easy comparison.

[TGO]

The area where we are worst in terms of UZR is the subcategory called "Range Runs," or RngR. We are 33 runs worse than the second worst team in that category, which is really pretty incredible. Other than Reynolds we are hurt most in that category by Pie, Jones, and Markakis (in that order, worst to least worst).

In the case of Jones and Markakis I think that matches up pretty well with what we see and talk about here. Almost everyone thinks Markakis is at least average, and most seem to think Jones is underrated by the statistics (and overrated by people in the game who vote on Gold Gloves). Maybe that's true, but I think you can also imagine that their flaws are not blatantly obvious to us because they are at the margins. They aren't kicking grounders around and throwing away balls because of bad footwork like Reynolds. It's difficult to criticize a guy for not getting to one fly ball, but then by the time you look back at the end of the season you don't remember all of the fly balls he missed.

I also have to wonder if we still have problems with our positioning. This was supposed to be one of those little details that Showalter would fix but I don't think he has.

The other problem in this category is that at the top end we don't have anyone with really great range. Our best player in this category was Derrek Lee. We all enjoyed watching him play defense but first base is not where you're going to get the most value from a guy with better range than his peers. Arizona leads the majors in this category for the 2nd year in a row and it's because of their outfielders.

By the way, some people have asked about whether park dimensions/outfield shapes could have something to do with depressing our OFer's defensive stats. Boston is #2 in MLB in range this year in large part because of Ellsbury, who plays 81 of his games in a strangely shaped OF with huge walls (which, granted, is spacious to straightaway CF and RCF), next to a speedy LF who has very little ground to cover.

[Ven6]

I also have to wonder if we still have problems with our positioning.

This is a very good point. Also, pitching plays a huge role. If our pitchers can't hit the spots the fielders expect them to hit, the fielders are going to be "out of position".

[TGO]

The best things we could do for our defense would be moving Jones out of CF and getting great defenders to play CF and 2B. Andino wasn't good stats wise at 2B but most seem to think he improved to the point of being above average by the end of the year. In any event, whether it's Andino or someone else, if you want to improve the defense you have to improve 2B.

[CA-ORIOLE]

because of Ellsbury, who plays 81 of his games in a strangely shaped OF with huge walls (which, granted, is spacious to straightaway CF and RCF), next to a speedy LF who has very little ground to cover.

It was pretty interesting that Crawford was a minus 2 on defense this year in LF. Theo is pretty bright, but he really didn't think this one out very well with respect to Crawford's value in LF in Fenway. A pot bellied softball player could probably play LF in Fenway. In fact, I think one did.

Almost everyone thinks Markakis is at least average, and most seem to think Jones is underrated by the statistics (and overrated by people in the game who vote on Gold Gloves). Maybe that's true, but I think you can also imagine that their flaws are not blatantly obvious to us because they are at the margins. It's difficult to criticize a guy for not getting to one fly ball, but then by the time you look back at the end of the season you don't remember all of the fly balls he missed.

I'm not one of them. I think the hard part is considering how good the other players in the league are with respect to ours and it's generally been trending more and more towards defense.

[JTrea81]

By the way, some people have asked about whether park dimensions/outfield shapes could have something to do with depressing our OFer's defensive stats. Boston is #2 in MLB in range this year in large part because of Ellsbury, who plays 81 of his games in a strangely shaped OF with huge walls (which, granted, is spacious to straightaway CF and RCF), next to a speedy LF who has very little ground to cover.

I still think they don't have OPACY accounted for correctly. Splits aren't out for UZR yet however so we can't see if there is that continued trend for all Orioles OFers to play better away than at OPACY.