Defense?

[TGO]

This is a very good point. Also, pitching plays a huge role. If our pitchers can't hit the spots the fielders expect them to hit, the fielders are going to be "out of position".

This is true, and something I forgot to mention. Though obviously we don't know how much our players play to the pitching game plan. But if they do so even a little, having an inexperienced, overmatched pitching staff with poor control inside the strike zone (see: league leading HR/9 and HR/FB rates) will hurt.

[CA-ORIOLE]

The best things we could do for our defense would be moving Jones out of CF and getting great defenders to play CF and 2B. Andino wasn't good stats wise at 2B but most seem to think he improved to the point of being above average by the end of the year. In any event, whether it's Andino or someone else, if you want to improve the defense you have to improve 2B.

Andino's best postion's are on the Left side of the infield, but I think he could be above average at second. He never really had any significant amount of time there in the minors and was pretty rough when he first started. He got a lot better there, but his range isn't fantastic and his arm is underutilized there.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I still think they don't have OPACY accounted for correctly. Splits aren't out for UZR yet however so we can't see if there is that continued trend for all Orioles OFers to play better away than at OPACY.

The way to be more certain about this is to see how other fielders perform there as well as other respective parks. Until they provide that it's gonna be speculative.

[El Gordo]

First of all, I'd gladly take average. By dWAR, we've been below average every year from 2006 to 2011, with this year being -5.5 dWAR which equates to 55 runs below average on defense. If we could make that up, that would be huge.

As you know, I have reservations about defensive metrics. For example, dWAR says Adam Jones was +0.6 in 2010, and -1.7 in 2011, and I don't believe that reflects reality. In my opinion, Jones was as good or better in 2011 than in 2010.

So, it's really hard for me to answer your question, except to say I'd like to find a better defensive 3B for sure.

I sems to me if you question the RS of individual players then you should doubt the team's -55 RS as well. If Jones, Markakis, etc. are average or better than there is no way we could be -55RS unless Reynolds, Reimold, and company are way worse than they seem to have been.

[Frobby]

It seems to me if you question the RS of individual players then you should doubt the team's -55 RS as well.

Agreed. My problem is, I'm a skeptic of these stats but not a complete non-believer. So, it's tough for me to know where to draw the line.

[El Gordo]

Agreed. My problem is, I'm a skeptic of these stats but not a complete non-believer. So, it's tough for me to know where to draw the line.

Besides Markakis' numbers what other players metrics do you question? I have issues with defensive metrics as well. but I would say when determining the difference between the best and the worst they are pretty accurate. Now in trying too discern whether Teix is better than AGonz they are fuzzy. In general when there is an agreement between Rtot, UZR. and FB+-, about a player's general trends over o 2-3 year period I would say they are fairly accurate. In the case of Jones and Markakis they each had one very good season with the glove, and both have very good arms. But in terms of range they have been below average and trending downward ever since. IMO the fan bias has yet to catch up with reality. When defensive metrics are in conflict with a bias then they are not to be trusted, but when they agree then they are.

[wildcard]

First thing to do is stop using UZR as a way to measure the O's defense. Or any defense. It stinks. It has always stunk. And is still stinks.

The O's have already addressed some of the defensive problems from this past year:

1) They moved Reynolds to first where he seem more comfortable.

2) Andino is no longer learning to play 2nd on the fly. He is now a pretty darn go 2B.

3) Pie has been released and Angle is a better OF.

I don't think defense will be the O's problem next year. Its pitching that needs to improve IMO.

[OFFNY]

First thing to do is stop using UZR as a way to measure the O's defense. Or any defense. It stinks. It has always stunk. And is still stinks.

The O's have already addressed some of the defensive problems from this past year:

1) They moved Reynolds to first where he seem more comfortable.

2) Andino is no longer learning to play 2nd on the fly. He is now a pretty darn go 2B.

3) Pie has been released and Angle is a better OF.

I don't think defense will be the O's problem next year. Its pitching that needs to improve IMO.

Andino wasn't too shabby filling in at 3rd base either, when Chris Davis was injured.

[sangar]

3) Pie has been released and Angle is a better OF.

Reimold should be the major beneficiary of Pie's absence. Everything I've looked at shows Nolan had a very solid defensive season. He has taken a lot of criticism for his D, but he actually looks pretty good out there.

[TGO]

Besides Markakis' numbers what other players metrics do you question? I have issues with defensive metrics as well. but I would say when determining the difference between the best and the worst they are pretty accurate. Now in trying too discern whether Teix is better than AGonz they are fuzzy. In general when there is an agreement between Rtot, UZR. and FB+-, about a player's general trends over o 2-3 year period I would say they are fairly accurate. In the case of Jones and Markakis they each had one very good season with the glove, and both have very good arms. But in terms of range they have been below average and trending downward ever since. IMO the fan bias has yet to catch up with reality. When defensive metrics are in conflict with a bias then they are not to be trusted, but when they agree then they are.

What I want to ask about park effects is why does anyone think Jones is affected? I get Markakis since he has to deal with the short porch and out of town scoreboard, but CF in Camden Yards seems fairly like a fairly standard size to me.

[DrungoHazewood]

First thing to do is stop using UZR as a way to measure the O's defense. Or any defense. It stinks. It has always stunk. And is still stinks.

You're almost as obsessed over UZR as Trea is over signing $500M worth of free agents.

How about this. The O's were 4th-to-last in MLB in % of balls in play turned into outs. Given roughly 2800 balls in play, the O's would have missed 110 or so outs that the Rays would have gotten to. They would have missed 30 outs that an average team would have gotten to. So, just by a back-of-the-napkin calculation they were 26th in the league in team defense, and were maybe 20 runs below average or 50+ runs worse than the Rays on defense.

[DrungoHazewood]

What I want to ask about park effects is why does anyone think Jones is affected? I get Markakis since he has to deal with the short porch and out of town scoreboard, but CF in Camden Yards seems fairly like a fairly standard size to me.

It's a plausible explanation for why our guy's defensive numbers stink.

[crawjo]

Every time there is a base hit to the outfield (or anywhere) I like to ask myself whether a better defender would have caught it. It's not an easy thing to do, actually. You have to imagine somebody with a better first step, better foot speed, better route to the baseball, etc. Maybe I am too judgmental but this habit very often leaves me feeling that balls hit to the outfield would have been caught by better outfielders (I feel this way about both Jones and Markakis, in addition to Reimold.) To my eyes, not paying any attention to the fielding metrics, I think our outfield, in terms of range, is well below average. I think our arms in the outfield are solidly above average, however.

For instance I watch Austin Jackson play in the outfield and he gets to all kinds of balls that Jones never touches.

[El Gordo]

]First thing to do is stop using UZR as a way to measure the O's defense. Or any defense. It stinks. It has always stunk. And is still stinks.[/b]

The O's have already addressed some of the defensive problems from this past year:

1) They moved Reynolds to first where he seem more comfortable.

2) Andino is no longer learning to play 2nd on the fly. He is now a pretty darn go 2B.

3) Pie has been released and Angle is a better OF.

I don't think defense will be the O's problem next year. Its pitching that needs to improve IMO.

This statement is mindlessly ridiculous. It's one thing to say UZR is not perfectly accurate, and quite another to say it stinks. Go look at UZR's rankings for the top 5 defenders at every position and tell me how many of those players don't belong there. One might quibble over whether Granderson or Elsbury should be #1, but not that they are among the best. When Jones is consistently ranked below average by all the major defensive metric systems, but you think he should be a GG candidate, and he just happens to be a favorite player on your favorite team, perhaps you can understand why I question your objectivety.

[wildcard]

You're almost as obsessed over UZR as Trea is over signing $500M worth of free agents.

How about this. The O's were 4th-to-last in MLB in % of balls in play turned into outs. Given roughly 2800 balls in play, the O's would have missed 110 or so outs that the Rays would have gotten to. They would have missed 30 outs that an average team would have gotten to. So, just by a back-of-the-napkin calculation they were 26th in the league in team defense, and were maybe 20 runs below average or 50+ runs worse than the Rays on defense.

I already said the Reynolds was terrible at 3B and Andino was learning to play 2B. Thir stats figure greatly in the O's yearly stats. But both situations have changed. Focusing on the annual stats doesn't tell the current story. And using flawed stats doesn't prove anything.