Bigger problem: failure to develop our own players, or lack of aggressiveness in the FA market?

[MikeAD]

And doesn't signing free agents also create depth?

NO

Unless you find a way to add top level young talent in the minors through free agency, you cannot do this. This is simply absurd.

The the main point: there's many factors here. One, we just don't have a ton of top prospects. Everyone we get ends up being a "can't miss" and even among those we rarely have one that will be a big draw in a trade. This is because we invest poorly in the development portion of the franchise. Its not that we "dont know when to trade the players" its that we just don't have that much talent.

[SilentJames]

No they can't...The fact that you believe that shows how little you know.

Even the Yankees, for all the money they spend, HAVE to develop players to win. Its an absolute must.

This post shows how little you understand how things work.

Exactly. The Yankees, however, are almost the opposite of us. We need to rely on our development system to produce the core of our team and use FA to supplement. The Yankees on the other hand can use FA to build their core and use their farm system to supplement.

[El Gordo]

NO

Unless you find a way to add top level young talent in the minors through free agency, you cannot do this. This is simply absurd.

The the main point: there's many factors here. One, we just don't have a ton of top prospects. Everyone we get ends up being a "can't miss" and even among those we rarely have one that will be a big draw in a trade. This is because we invest poorly in the development portion of the franchise. Its not that we "dont know when to trade the players" its that we just don't have that much talent.

This is an overeaction. Signing two FA SP who would put up Guthrie like numbers or better, would create depth by pushing guys like Arrieta, Simon and Matusz to #'s 6, 7, and 8, instead of having to rely on them in the rotation.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Exactly. The Yankees, however, are almost the opposite of us. We need to rely on our development system to produce the core of our team and use FA to supplement. The Yankees on the other hand can use FA to build their core and use their farm system to supplement.

....or use their farm system to make deals.

[SilentJames]

This is an overeaction. Signing two FA SP who would put up Guthrie like numbers or better, would create depth by pushing guys like Arrieta, Simon and Matusz to #'s 6, 7, and 8, instead of having to rely on them in the rotation.

Yes but we would also be losing draft picks thus thinning out an already thin MiL system. So therefore, there is no net-gain and no depth is created. You just shuffle the names.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yes but we would also be losing draft picks thus thinning out an already thin MiL system. So therefore, there is no net-gain and no depth is created. You just shuffle the names.

I'd agree with that. Basically, you improve ML depth but hurt Minor League depth.

[Sports Guy]

Exactly. The Yankees, however, are almost the opposite of us. We need to rely on our development system to produce the core of our team and use FA to supplement. The Yankees on the other hand can use FA to build their core and use their farm system to supplement.

Ehh, this isn't really correct either.

The Yankees core for years has consisted of guys like Rivera, Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, Cano, etc...

When the Yankees started buying everyone, they won less titles.

[mweb]

I think the minor league player development issues are often overblown on here, but overall it is a problem when you combine that with talent acquisition in the draft/amateur market and the player development on the major league level.

It's even more of a problem considering the division they play in.

In the O's situation, they must do a great job of producing cheap talent because they have to have an advantage over the Yanks and Sox there because it is highly unlikely they'll outproduce them with post arbitration players. Then the Rays obviously are stellar in developing talent and the Jays are on the rise in that department as well.

[SilentJames]

....or use their farm system to make deals.

Exactly. The Yankees won't fall apart if Hughes complete bombs out, but if Toronto's young pitching fails to live up to their hype then they are in trouble. The Yankees aren't looking at their farm system and thinking: "This guy (or these couple of guys) needs to be one of the best players in baseball or we are in trouble."

If Jesus Montero struggles, they can trade him and buy a catcher. Not a big deal.

[Pedro Cerrano]

What's even more troubling about this is that we've had SO MANY high draft picks and SO FEW have panned out into anything. This really really needs to be addressed.

I can't believe if you showed a rational person a list of our first two rounds of drafting since 1998 that anyone would think this isn't the biggest problem we have.

[MikeAD]

Yes but we would also be losing draft picks thus thinning out an already thin MiL system. So therefore, there is no net-gain and no depth is created. You just shuffle the names.

Right, its an attempt to address the problem from the top, and only doing it partially.

It's like a city who needs to re-do its entire sewage and water system because much of the piping is rusted and rotted through. You can patch it up here and there and sort of save money in the short term but really you need to replace the whole damn thing. Adding 2 FA pitchers would patch it up, it would push some of the rotation to the pen, might save some wear and tear on the bullpen, but overall its nothing. It does nothing to address the lack of depth and when they are gone they are gone.

[Sports Guy]

I'd agree with that. Basically, you improve ML depth but hurt Minor League depth.

And whuile the MiL depth is obviously no sure thing, the starting pitchers you get to come to Baltimore are going to be one of a few things(or a combo of a few things):

1) Not good

2) Overpaid

3) Old

4) Declining

That's not really what i would call depth..at least not depth that you can hang your hat on.

[SilentJames]

Ehh, this isn't really correct either.

The Yankees core for years has consisted of guys like Rivera, Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, Cano, etc...

When the Yankees started buying everyone, they won less titles.

You're absolutely right. But think of the years between Posada and Cano.

The Yankees don't look at their system like other teams do. Now, that is a flaw of their org I think. Sooner or later they will need to go back to the well. But their current system virtually ensures they are competitive over 162 game season and makes them a year-in-year-out favorite for the playoffs and ALCS.

Their time will come, but with their resources they can keep doing what they are doing for awhile.

[JTrea81]

....or use their farm system to make deals.

Which as I stated we don't do enough of. If our development from minors to majors is an issue, why the heck are we hanging onto these guys when they have top value?

[Enjoy Terror]

Orioles:

9.1 WAR through 17 players drafted

7.5 WAR through 15 players acquired in trades

3.1 WAR through 17 FA's and waiver claims

3.0 WAR through 3 int'l free agents

Yankees:

8.9 WAR from 12 players drafted

9.4 WAR through 6 players acquired in trades

25.2 WAR through 21 FAs and waiver claims

11.2 WAR through 9 int'l free agents

Seems to me that it isn't so much we aren't developing talent well, we just aren't wisely spending in free agency, domestically or internationally.

Edit: I should note that we seem to be developing and trading as much as the Yankees are. We are just considerably dominated in free agency.

Also note that the 6.1 WAR the Orioles achieved this year from free agents, 2.9 was Guthrie, 2.0 was Koji, and 1.0 for Simon. The other 17 made up the 0.2 balance.