Yoennis Cespedes?

[mweb]

I think the important quote (among my many in this thread) is here:

My point is: if Cespedes is what, say, Kevin Goldstein has identified (a fast guy, with good defense and pop) then sure, I'd be willing to enter bidding on him. I'd want my best scouts to back it up.

The numbers themselves are just speculation, discounting pretty significantly (from his typical .320+ range) for contact issues, acknowledging that I think he'll likely walk far less in the US, and discounting some of his power numbers. Cocktail napkin stuff. Not really science. More common sense and triangulation.

Again, though, my point is largely about risk, and why some bigger ticket Int'l FAs may be less risky than others.

That's fine. I was not addressing you specifically or your points when I made my post.

[allstar1579]

I don't understand how you can say this, but then continually say that you can't consider the injury when evaluating the decision to sign him.

Because teams continuously ignore that Japanese adjustment variable and the high pitch counts and sign players anyway. Would I personally? No. But the conversations were before he signed about pitch count concerns, and then a couple years in the injury happens, no one should be too shocked, but I guess teams view the upside as worth the risk.

I said that I take into account obvious injury risk such as Strasburg's delivery, and the Japanese pitch counts, but if no major red flags present themselves I don't go around thinking what if a fluke injury occurs.

Same thing will happen with Darvish this year.

[mweb]

Because teams continuously ignore that Japanese adjustment variable and the high pitch counts and sign players anyway. Would I personally? No. But the conversations were before he signed about pitch count concerns, and then a couple years in the injury happens, no one should be too shocked, but I guess teams view the upside as worth the risk.

I said that I take into account obvious injury risk such as Strasburg's delivery, and the Japanese pitch counts, but if no major red flags present themselves I don't go around thinking what if a fluke injury occurs.

Same thing will happen with Darvish this year.

I'm still confused at your posts concerning Dice-K then, but that's hardly the main point in this thread so carry on.

[DrungoHazewood]

I haven't read the whole thread, but I have watched much of his insane video. I have no real opinion of whether or not he's a great ballplayer. But I've seen numbers thrown around like "$20-$30M". If I were the Orioles I'd be signing every $5M, $10M, $20M Cespedes, Sano, Chapman, etc before I even thought about one $100M MLB free agent. All you have to do is hit on one out three, four, five, or whatever and you've blown your ROI out of the water.

You could sign Cespedes for $25M for a lot of years, or Fielder for $25M for one year (and then have the next six attached at the same price, every year!).

[higgybaby]

Looking for the LIKE button!

I haven't read the whole thread, but I have watched much of his insane video. I have no real opinion of whether or not he's a great ballplayer. But I've seen numbers thrown around like "$20-$30M". If I were the Orioles I'd be signing every $5M, $10M, $20M Cespedes, Sano, Chapman, etc before I even thought about one $100M MLB free agent. All you have to do is hit on one out three, four, five, or whatever and you've blown your ROI out of the water.

You could sign Cespedes for $25M for a lot of years, or Fielder for $25M for one year (and then have the next six attached at the same price, every year!).

[higgybaby]

I sent the following text to Duquette earlier today. Perhaps fellow twitterers from OH could send similar messages if they feel the same way? @danduquette We need to sign Cespedes. He is a stud! PLZ, PLZ, PLZ get out scouts on him and sign him. Instant international cred.

[Lucky Jim]

I sent the following text to Duquette earlier today. Perhaps fellow twitterers from OH could send similar messages if they feel the same way? @danduquette We need to sign Cespedes. He is a stud! PLZ, PLZ, PLZ get out scouts on him and sign him. Instant international cred.

I have to imagine that random fans posting on the basis of a hyperbolic and comic video clip and some second-hand news are really going to drive Duquette to action on this one.

[sloppyjoe]

Anyone else think the training section is a bit pedestrian?

1300 lb is a nice leg press, problem is he only moved the weight a fraction of the possible range of motion. And leg press isn't that great to start with.

Hack squat? Why not do a squat? And whats with the bounce on the ball?

This video is mostly him doing weird stuff that looks cool to a really odd soundtrack.

More importantly, his swing is absolutely incredible. I'll take him.

Yeah his leg press was killing me as well.

[andrewrickli]

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Orioles and DD get in on Cespedes. However, with that said, I believe that the "Miami" Marlins have the upper hand. Miami is the "Gateway to the America's" for the Cubans. If DD wants him, he is going to have to move quickly. I see us as a darkhorse team due to DD's background with Int'l signings-but at the same time, I doubt he is looking at international free agents now, he is probably finding guys for his FO.

All that said, I'd be ecstatic if we did sign him, he looks to be the real deal.

[Can_of_corn]

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Orioles and DD get in on Cespedes. However, with that said, I believe that the "Miami" Marlins have the upper hand. Miami is the "Gateway to the America's" for the Cubans. If DD wants him, he is going to have to move quickly. I see us as a darkhorse team due to DD's background with Int'l signings-but at the same time, I doubt he is looking at international free agents now, he is probably finding guys for his FO.

All that said, I'd be ecstatic if we did sign him, he looks to be the real deal.

From Rosenthal:

Sources: #Marlins have made substantial offers to both Reyes and Pujols.

If they sign one or both it could influence how much they can spend on Cespedes.

[MrOrange82]

I have to imagine that random fans posting on the basis of a hyperbolic and comic video clip and some second-hand news are really going to drive Duquette to action on this one.

Hopefully Duquette's paying more attention to the fact that the Marlins basically had their entire FO (along with Ozzie) watch Cespedes during a private workout, and the Cubs are about to do the same thing.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111110&content_id=25948958&c_id=mlb

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/13/1112-cubs-to-work-out-cuban-star-cespedes/

At this point, I think everyone can pretty much agree that the Orioles would get a big "FAIL" on this winter's report card if they don't take a long look at Cespedes.

[allstar1579]

Hopefully Duquette's paying more attention to the fact that the Marlins basically had their entire FO (along with Ozzie) watch Cespedes during a private workout, and the Cubs are about to do the same thing.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111110&content_id=25948958&c_id=mlb

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/13/1112-cubs-to-work-out-cuban-star-cespedes/

At this point, I think everyone can pretty much agree that the Orioles would get a big "FAIL" on this winter's report card if they don't take a long look at Cespedes.

Doesn't matter at this point, we have no chance at him. The Yanks, BOS, WAS, TOR, MIA, COL, DET, CHC and MIN are all in on him. No way we sign him over all of them, and the price the bidding will get to makes it not worth the risk. At 5-6m per year I said sure, take a chance, but with this bidding you could be looking 8-10m per.

[Can_of_corn]

Doesn't matter at this point, we have no chance at him. The Yanks, BOS, WAS, TOR, MIA, COL, DET, CHC and MIN are all in on him. No way we sign him over all of them, and the price the bidding will get to makes it not worth the risk. At 5-6m per year I said sure, take a chance, but with this bidding you could be looking 8-10m per.

Just because they have folks looking does not me they are in on him. The Twins, for instance, are looking to cut 15 million from payroll this season, they are not going to land him.

That being said this is exactly the type of move that Angelos is not going to OK.

[allstar1579]

Just because they have folks looking does not me they are in on him. The Twins, for instance, are looking to cut 15 million from payroll this season, they are not going to land him.

That being said this is exactly the type of move that Angelos is not going to OK.

MIN is the one I wasn't 100% on I thought I saw them but it might have been someone else. Was trying to do it off the top of my head. The rest are IN on him and the bidding is climbing already. That rumored $25-30m thing looks quite short right now.

[El Gordo]

MIN is the one I wasn't 100% on I thought I saw them but it might have been someone else. Was trying to do it off the top of my head. The rest are IN on him and the bidding is climbing already. That rumored $25-30m thing looks quite short right now.

What is your source for this. I don't see why the Yankee's would be that interested in him. WAS. MIA. and TOR yes, and maybe DET and BOS.