Edwin Jackson: Interested?

[crawjo]

Edwin Jackson is a much better bet than Burnett. And 3/30 or even 4/40 wouldn't bother me. People don't realize how solid he's been.

I'd go higher...4/48.

[Sports Guy]

Edwin Jackson is a much better bet than Burnett. And 3/30 or even 4/40 wouldn't bother me. People don't realize how solid he's been.

Why?

Jackson has been in the NL some of the last few years and AJ has been in a park where the ball flies out.

EJ has had a better FIP and a better walk rate..AJ k's more.

Jackson isn't really THAT MUCH of a better bet. He has an edge in some areas and AJ has an edge in others.

More importantly, AJ is probably effected by just NY in general and everything that comes with it.

On top of that, he wil cost less and you will have to give up very litle to acquire him.

As a package, getting Burnett is better for the Orioles than giving EJack what it would take to get him here.

Sure, if you could get him for 3/30 or less, I would probably take EJack but that's not likely and even that would depend on how much NY would eat and how little you would have to give up to get AJ.

[PaulFolk]

As a package, getting Burnett is better for the Orioles than giving EJack what it would take to get him here.

Sure, if you could get him for 3/30 or less, I would probably take EJack but that's not likely and even that would depend on how much NY would eat and how little you would have to give up to get AJ.

You may have already mentioned this, but what player(s) would you trade for Burnett?

[Fan4Life]

I'd sign him to a 3/30-33 contract.

Jackson has been a 3.5+ fWAR pitcher for the past 3 seasons.

Nobody on the Orioles has done that.

Gotta say, if I am his agent this is my stance. The heralded Fangraghs says he's been worth $15m on average the last 3 years. How anyone thinks he'll sign for 3@$27m....

[SrMeowMeow]

Why?

Jackson has been in the NL some of the last few years and AJ has been in a park where the ball flies out.

EJ has had a better FIP and a better walk rate..AJ k's more.

Jackson isn't really THAT MUCH of a better bet. He has an edge in some areas and AJ has an edge in others.

More importantly, AJ is probably effected by just NY in general and everything that comes with it.

On top of that, he wil cost less and you will have to give up very litle to acquire him.

As a package, getting Burnett is better for the Orioles than giving EJack what it would take to get him here.

Sure, if you could get him for 3/30 or less, I would probably take EJack but that's not likely and even that would depend on how much NY would eat and how little you would have to give up to get AJ.

I have never seen any evidence of a "New York spotlight" effect. And Burnett has been awful. Two full seasons of 5.26 and 5.15 ERA with FIPs not far behind? Would you really feel comfortable putting money on anything less than, like, a 4.90 ERA? Burnett also just turned 35. There's no reason to expect any kind of bounceback at this stage in his career. Edwin Jackson, on the other hand, has been legitimately good. 3.6, 3.8, 3.8 WAR. Projected for about a 3.90 FIP. And only about 200 of his last 600 IP have been spent in the NL (and most of that was a poor 5.16 ERA with the D-Backs in 130 IP). He's a good pitcher. And he's 28. You know, entering his prime, not watching it vanish in his rear-view mirror.

Jackson and Burnett are not on the same level, at all.

[Sports Guy]

You may have already mentioned this, but what player(s) would you trade for Burnett?

Tons of combos...Nothing of any real value.

The best player I would likely trade would be Brad B.

[Sports Guy]

I have never seen any evidence of a "New York spotlight" effect. And Burnett has been awful. Two full seasons of 5.26 and 5.15 ERA with FIPs not far behind? Would you really feel comfortable putting money on anything less than, like, a 4.90 ERA? Burnett also just turned 35. There's no reason to expect any kind of bounceback at this stage in his career. Edwin Jackson, on the other hand, has been legitimately good. And only about 200 of his last 600 IP have been spent in the NL (and most of that was a poor 5.16 ERA with the D-Backs in 130 IP). He's a good pitcher. And he's 28. You know, entering his prime, not watching it vanish in his rear-view mirror.

Jackson and Burnett are not on the same level, at all.

His xFIP have been solid. His HR/FB% last year was way high. Saying there is no reason to expect a bounceback shows a total lack of understanding of stats.

His K rates, swingstr%, BB rates, GB rates, etc....they are right around where he has always been.

Saying Ejack is entering his prime is wrong. Prime year is still 27. Where is he going to be in 3 or 4 years? On top of that, he hasn't been pitching in the AL and in this division either.

I like EJack and for the right contract, he would be fine...But people on this site generally overrate him and he just isn't worth a 4 year deal.

[El Gordo]

Why?

Jackson has been in the NL some of the last few years and AJ has been in a park where the ball flies out.

EJ has had a better FIP and a better walk rate..AJ k's more.

Jackson isn't really THAT MUCH of a better bet. He has an edge in some areas and AJ has an edge in others.

More importantly, AJ is probably effected by just NY in general and everything that comes with it.

On top of that, he wil cost less and you will have to give up very litle to acquire him.

As a package, getting Burnett is better for the Orioles than giving EJack what it would take to get him here.

Sure, if you could get him for 3/30 or less, I would probably take EJack but that's not likely and even that would depend on how much NY would eat and how little you would have to give up to get AJ.

How is AJ going to cost less? The MFY's aren't eating all of his salary. If they eat 7M to make him about what EJax would cost, you still have to give up something in trade.

[Fan4Life]

His xFIP have been solid. His HR/FB% last year was way high. Saying there is no reason to expect a bounceback shows a total lack of understanding of stats.

His K rates, swingstr%, BB rates, GB rates, etc....they are right around where he has always been.

Saying Ejack is entering his prime is wrong. Prime year is still 27. Where is he going to be in 3 or 4 years? On top of that, he hasn't been pitching in the AL and in this division either.

I like EJack and for the right contract, he would be fine...But people on this site generally overrate him and he just isn't worth a 4 year deal.

doesn't the heralded fangraphs adjust for league an park differences?

Lats 3 years EJack has been worth $20M more than AJB and is 6 years younger.

[SrMeowMeow]

His xFIP have been solid. His HR/FB% last year was way high. Saying there is no reason to expect a bounceback shows a total lack of understanding of stats.

His K rates, swingstr%, BB rates, GB rates, etc....they are right around where he has always been.

Saying Ejack is entering his prime is wrong. Prime year is still 27. Where is he going to be in 3 or 4 years? On top of that, he hasn't been pitching in the AL and in this division either.

I like EJack and for the right contract, he would be fine...But people on this site generally overrate him and he just isn't worth a 4 year deal.

So what are your best projections for Burnett and Jackson for 2012? IP and ERA.

And fine, nitpick the meaning of the phrase "entering his prime". Jackson has prime years remaining. Burnett does not. Burnett is 7 years older.

[El Gordo]

Gotta say, if I am his agent this is my stance. The heralded Fangraghs says he's been worth $15m on average the last 3 years. How anyone thinks he'll sign for 3@$27m....

Easy, there is no market for him at his price. I think he'll end up signing a 0ne year deal.

[Fan4Life]

Easy, there is no market for him at his price. I think he'll end up signing a 0ne year deal.

Agreed... but not for $9m. I'll bet between $12m-$14m.

[Sports Guy]

doesn't the heralded fangraphs adjust for league an park differences?

Lats 3 years EJack has been worth $20M more than AJB and is 6 years younger.

You can't do that with any certainty because you just don't know how that player would perform in another league/park/division.

Yes, EJack has been worth more. I get that. I know that.

The question is, for the next 2 years, who is the better bet to perform at the level you are looking for, at the cost it takes to bring them in?

[Fan4Life]

You can't do that with any certainty because you just don't know how that player would perform in another league/park/division.

Yes, EJack has been worth more. I get that. I know that.

The question is, for the next 2 years, who is the better bet to perform at the level you are looking for, at the cost it takes to bring them in?

I'm not saying I disagree with you... only that his numbers back up his asking price.

[SrMeowMeow]

You can't (adjust for league and park differences) that with any certainty because you just don't know how that player would perform in another league/park/division.

Yes, EJack has been worth more. I get that. I know that.

The question is, for the next 2 years, who is the better bet to perform at the level you are looking for, at the cost it takes to bring them in?

What does that mean? You may not know, but you can estimate, and estimate well. That's, uh, what park and league adjustments are.