Edwin Jackson: Interested?

[El Gordo]

Agreed... but not for $9m. I'll bet between $12m-$14m.

Name the ML team that needs him that badly. And the 9M I suggested is for 3/27M years not one. In leau of a one year deal I think he'd settle for 3/27, and an option.

[crawjo]

Easy, there is no market for him at his price. I think he'll end up signing a 0ne year deal.

That would be alright. Jackson might be a good fit for the Orioles if he becomes a FA again next offseason. But, I don't think he will. I think Boras will find him an approximation of the multiyear deal he's looking for, and I think the Orioles will be strong contenders for him.

[Fan4Life]

Name the ML team that needs him that badly. And the 9M I suggested is for 3/27M years not one. In leau of a one year deal I think he'd settle for 3/27, and an option.

I think he'll opt for a higher one year dear that more closely reflects what his value has been. Try and repeat that performance again, and get a bigger payday next year when demand may be better.

[El Gordo]

I think he'll opt for a higher one year dear that more closely reflects what his value has been. Try and repeat that performance again, and get a bigger payday next year when demand may be better.

Yes but what team will give him that? TEX? LAA? DET? CLE, MIN? KC? TOR? BOS? Mets? STL? PHIL? Which team?

[Sports Guy]

What does that mean? You may not know, but you can estimate, and estimate well. That's, uh, what park and league adjustments are.

What it means is that if you take EJack out of the NL central and put him in OPACY and against this division, you really have no idea. No estimate, stat or anything like that can give you that.

They hypothesize to a certain point but at the end of the day, you just don't know how things would play out against better competition.

Personally, I don't think EJack puts up better "actual numbers" than Guthrie has. I think he is the better pitcher but I don't think he really gives us more production, in this division, than Guthrie has. That obviously has value and his WAR may look prettier because he strikes out more guys but at the end of the day, i would expect a 3.7-4.5 ERA, 200 IP pitcher out of EJack and that is essentially what Guthrie has been here.

[Sports Guy]

There is a lot of pitching on the market next year and Ejack isn't likely to be any better after next year than he was this year.

If he takes a 1 year deal, he is making a big mistake(unless that deal is for like 15M or something crazy like that)

[SrMeowMeow]

What it means is that if you take EJack out of the NL central and put him in OPACY and against this division, you really have no idea. No estimate, stat or anything like that can give you that.

They hypothesize to a certain point but at the end of the day, you just don't know how things would play out against better competition.

Personally, I don't think EJack puts up better "actual numbers" than Guthrie has. I think he is the better pitcher but I don't think he really gives us more production, in this division, than Guthrie has. That obviously has value and his WAR may look prettier because he strikes out more guys but at the end of the day, i would expect a 3.7-4.5 ERA, 200 IP pitcher out of EJack and that is essentially what Guthrie has been here.

How can he be the better pitcher and not give more production? Or, rather, how can you think he's better and not expect more production?

[SrMeowMeow]

Basically, I just don't understand why you're so down on him. He's been very good for three years. He's 28. And his market is non-existent. This is the perfect free agent for us to sign.

[Fan4Life]

Yes but what team will give him that? TEX? LAA? DET? CLE, MIN? KC? TOR? BOS? Mets? STL? PHIL? Which team?

If Boston misses out on Oswalt, then Boston.

After that... St Louis, NYY, Phil may be best options, but I think he'll hold out through Spring Training and wait to see if the market place has any changes to it during the exhibition season before he'll sign a one year deal at a 30% discount from his value the last 3 years. (Based on Frangraphs)

[Sports Guy]

How can he be the better pitcher and not give more production? Or, rather, how can you think he's better and not expect more production?

Do you think he will pitch more innings than Guthrie?

Do you think he would have an average ERA, over the next 4 years, better than Guthrie's last 4...4.20?

He would be the better pitcher because of K rate, GB rates and things like that.

But Guthrie has also consistently outperformed his peripherals.

So, while I give the edge to EJack as the better pitcher, their actual numbers(things like ERA, IP and wins) won't really end up being all that different.

[Sports Guy]

Basically, I just don't understand why you're so down on him. He's been very good for three years. He's 28. And his market is non-existent. This is the perfect free agent for us to sign.

I'm not down on him...I am just not overrating him like some.

I am also not willing to go 4 years for him...or really, most pitchers.

[Fan4Life]

If we trade for Feldman/Koji that opens a spot for Oswalt in Texas. Which should make EJack an option in Boston.

So.. Ejack or Feldman or Burnett?

[El Gordo]

If Boston misses out on Oswalt, then Boston.

After that... St Louis, NYY, Phil may be best options, but I think he'll hold out through Spring Training and wait to see if the market place has any changes to it during the exhibition season before he'll sign a one year deal at a 30% discount from his value the last 3 years. (Based on Frangraphs)

Have you been following Boston this off season. They traded Scutero so they could free up money to sign Oswalt for around 8M. They are not going to offer EJax 12M. I think his best option is CLE to replace Fausto/Roberto for one year, but he might prefer 3 years with the O's to that, and I doubt CLE offers him 12M either..

[SrMeowMeow]

Do you think he will pitch more innings than Guthrie?

Do you think he would have an average ERA, over the next 4 years, better than Guthrie's last 4...4.20?

He would be the better pitcher because of K rate, GB rates and things like that.

But Guthrie has also consistently outperformed his peripherals.

So, while I give the edge to EJack as the better pitcher, their actual numbers(things like ERA, IP and wins) won't really end up being all that different.

That's a little twisted, because while yes, I think 4.20 ERA is a good place to set the under/over for Jackson the Oriole, this is not the correct way to analyze things. Either Guthrie does have some ability to outperform his peripherals (I'm open-minded but skeptical) or he's been a little bit fortunate to do so.

If Guthrie's been lucky, then it does make sense to pay more for a pitcher whose average case is, say, 4.20 ERA with matching FIP than we did for Guthrie, if you assume that his average case would have been his 4.68 FIP. Even though Guthrie did perform better, in this scenario he got lucky. You should expect to pay more for a more accurate gun even if the musket you used for the past five years was uncannily accurate.

And if Guthrie hasn't been lucky, meaning his true talent is his ERA and not his FIP...then 4/40 would be a great bargain for the last four years of his production.

I mean, 4/40 would just be a great deal for 4 seasons of 4.20 ERA in the AL East. And I think that's a reasonable projection.

[clapdiddy]

If we trade for Feldman/Koji that opens a spot for Oswalt in Texas. Which should make EJack an option in Boston.

So.. Ejack or Feldman or Burnett?

I would take Jackson on a three year deal. I wouldn't mind getting Feldman as well. You can't have enough arms.