Update on Jones to the Braves for Jurrjens, Prado, Plus

[DrungoHazewood]

No not neccessarily. The key is finding that pitching for cheap like the Yankees did with Freddy Garcia.

You act like this is easy. Like all you have to do is find a random broken down arm, and plug him in and get 150 innings of a 122 ERA+. It's not easy! Otherwise everyone would do it every year. There are dozens of Freddy Garcias, and only a handful end up being good pitchers. And don't sit here and tell me the O's new scouts are so good they'll be the team that beats all odds in identifying lots of these guys, that's just crazy. The O's try this every year and most of the time they end up with Adam Eaton and Steve Trachsel and Rich Hill and Kevin Millwood and Victor Santos and Jaret Wright.

There are plenty of SP candidates out there. EJax is going to have to sign for less than he wants and if you can get him for 11 million for 3 years, you've got 3.0+ fWAR potential right there. Gavin Floyd is another 3.0+ fWAR pitcher that we can get in a salary dump.

You don't have to spend huge dollar amounts on pitching to get results. You just have to have the scouting in place to know that this guy is going to rebound or continue to be solid.

Jones does not have to be traded to get the pitching we need as there is plenty of opportunity to improve the staff with what is out there.

You trade for Floyd, and you give up something. It'll be rare that you find a very good starting pitcher for nothing but salary concerns. Most of the Floyd deals have talked about Reimold and Andino and maybe a prospect. Then you have to pay to go find replacements for the departing players. You sign Jackson and you're out about $12M a year, making it all the more likely that you don't fill those holes at first, second and third.

I just find it amazing that you think it's easy to fill an entire rotation with the snap of a finger, when the O's consistently don't do it, most teams are constantly looking to fill holes in their rotation.

[DrungoHazewood]

You obviously don't believe in WAR. This is a 76-77 win team now with the additions made this offseason assuming no major improvement from the roster.

What moves? What additions? This was a 69-win team last year that outperformed their Pythag. They added Wada, who's likely a 5th starter type, maybe even a reliever, and Endy Chavez. Oh and Teagarden, Miller. You have to be really optimistic to see more than 2-3 wins out of those guys. They're in the low 70s right now, and that's assuming that everyone else holds serve, including guys like Wieters and Hardy who surged to career years or near career years last season.

Don't fall into the trap of Oriole GMs past and think that everything is just going to go swimmingly and they're a .500 team just on hope and good luck and happy projections. We all know someone on the roster, maybe several someones will implode next year. Adam Jones could put up a .250/.280/.380 line with -15 defense. Reimold could hit .207 again. Britton might put up a 6.25 ERA and end up back in Norfolk. Don't tell me you'd be stunned if any of that happened - it does every year.

[Sports Guy]

So basically, for Jones to want to extend, he wants the team to put 30+ million into the payroll and sign the elite players left on the market.

Its not a very realistic request.

And that doesn't even start to figure out how much money he is going to want and if it will be worth it.

[Roll Tide]

What moves? What additions? This was a 69-win team last year that outperformed their Pythag. They added Wada, who's likely a 5th starter type, maybe even a reliever, and Endy Chavez. Oh and Teagarden, Miller. You have to be really optimistic to see more than 2-3 wins out of those guys. They're in the low 70s right now, and that's assuming that everyone else holds serve, including guys like Wieters and Hardy who surged to career years or near career years last season.

Don't fall into the trap of Oriole GMs past and think that everything is just going to go swimmingly and they're a .500 team just on hope and good luck and happy projections. We all know someone on the roster, maybe several someones will implode next year. Adam Jones could put up a .250/.280/.380 line with -15 defense. Reimold could hit .207 again. Britton might put up a 6.25 ERA and end up back in Norfolk. Don't tell me you'd be stunned if any of that happened - it does every year.

You forgot the new ace of the staff EVELAND ...Trea's penciling him in for 15 Wins! (Just kiddin' Trea)

Not to mention that the Calvary was slaughtered at the gates. Orioles farm hands fail miserable at a near 100% clip so no reason to expect any of the to have a major reversal.

[Roll Tide]

Between this post and your previous post, you've made some pretty bold statements (not that this is unusual). I'd like you to go on record that the following is truly what you believe, because it is what you just wrote.

If the Orioles had the following options for this year's rotation:

Guthrie

Britton

Wada

Eveland

Edwin Jackson

Gavin Floyd (though Drungo is right about the fact that we'd have to give up a decent amount to get him, I'm going to ignore that right now)

Matusz

Hunter

Tillman

Bergesen

AND they signed Prince Fielder, but made no other substantive changes

You believe that this team would be a legitimate contender for the play-offs with these rotation options?

Yes or No. Please don't equivocate. This is what you've typed in the last few pages.

You forgot Chen ....Just sayin'

[Roll Tide]

He didn't mention Chen in his post and he isn't already signed so I didn't forget him. I left him out intentionally. If he thinks we need Chen, he should state that.

I think the Orioles have a much better chance at Chen than trading for Floyd. I personally believe that ship has sailed.

[GoldGlove21]

I think the Orioles have a much better chance at Chen than trading for Floyd. I personally believe that ship has sailed.

That may be true. They say that a team can never have enough pitching, but we might (not great pitching).

Guys that will be guaranteed a spot (Best Guess):

Guthrie

Chen

Wada

Guys that will compete for 2 spots (If Britton or Arrieta is not given a spot):

Britton

Eveland

Matusz

Bergesen

Arrieta

Tillman

Hunter

Guys that could go to the pen:

Eveland

Arrieta

Hunter/Bergesen (Long Man)

I think there is a good chance that Matusz and Tillman could be in the minors to start 2012. If I am not giving a spot to Britton than I am not giving one to Matusz. Let him perform well in the minors and get his confidence back and bring him up and deal Guthrie.

[GoldGlove21]

This. I don't expect Adam Jones (or any player) to understand the finance piece of baseball. For the most part the ballplayers see talent and don't think about cost. That is understandable. However, the analysis I'm in the middle of (and plan to post soon) makes what Adam is asking for completely unrealistic. I have nothing against Adam but, if the way to make him stay is to spend 30-50 million more per year on payroll right now, then we need to trade Adam before the season starts.

Now, I would expect folks who consider themselves analytical and not just fans to understand this but it seems that some of us just don't get it.

Right, I do not find Jones worth the contract that Jones is actually worth and I am not a big fan of paying for upside when the guy has been in the majors for 3-5 years prior to an extension. I think Jones could become poisened and based on his and his Mother's comments that might have started. It is not about what fans say it is more about the media and the front office entertaining a trade. Every team listens on guy, but it tends to not be this public. The fact that there has been so much smoke here probably means there will be a fire soon.

[Sports Guy]

Adding guys like Saunders, Malholm and Chen aren't going to fix the Orioles issues.

These guys just aren't all that great.

We need much higher ceiling pitching to win in this division, thus why you need to trade for some(as well as hitting) and allow your higher upside young pitchers the chance to pitch instead of gettng these scrubs for a year or 2 who will do nothing to advance your team short or long term.

[Peace21]

Adding guys like Saunders, Malholm and Chen aren't going to fix the Orioles issues.

These guys just aren't all that great.

We need much higher ceiling pitching to win in this division, thus why you need to trade for some(as well as hitting) and allow your higher upside young pitchers the chance to pitch instead of gettng these scrubs for a year or 2 who will do nothing to advance your team short or long term.

I disagree you should grow the arms and buy the bats.....uh wait what?

No you are right!

[Biff Tannen]

You act like this is easy. Like all you have to do is find a random broken down arm, and plug him in and get 150 innings of a 122 ERA+. It's not easy! Otherwise everyone would do it every year. There are dozens of Freddy Garcias, and only a handful end up being good pitchers. And don't sit here and tell me the O's new scouts are so good they'll be the team that beats all odds in identifying lots of these guys, that's just crazy. The O's try this every year and most of the time they end up with Adam Eaton and Steve Trachsel and Rich Hill and Kevin Millwood and Victor Santos and Jaret Wright.

And Justin Duchscherer, who honestly was the ideal type of this sort of dude signed to an ideal incentive-based contract. And in the end, when we hardly paid him anything and his effect on the team's results was nil, he was still a subject of ridicule and used an example for how clueless the front brass is.

So, yeah, I agree, the O's consistently try to do this but its only going to work out once in a blue moon (say, with a Bruce Chen). Otherwise, its just more fodder for some of the more out-of-touch fans to go off about how the O's never attempt to do anything intelligent.

[SammyBirdland]

I disagree you should grow the arms and buy the bats.....uh wait what?

No you are right!

And if it turns out we're not good arm farmers, we need to do arm crop rotations with other teams.

[LookinUp]

I'm ready to make a bold prediction.

Jones and Andino to the Braves.

JJ, Prado, Minor and Perez to the O's.

No Rockies.

Andino is the savior. Just what the doctor ordered for the Braves, so they cave a bit. We keep JJ until at least the trade deadline. This trade is followed by Guthrie to the Angels for something (Collaspo/Morales is my guess). We stay away from FA starting pitchers this year beyond what we already did with Wada.

[SammyBirdland]

I'm ready to make a bold prediction.

Jones and Andino to the Braves.

JJ, Prado, Minor and Perez to the O's.

No Rockies.

Andino is the savior. Just what the doctor ordered for the Braves, so they cave a bit. We keep JJ until at least the trade deadline. This trade is followed by Guthrie to the Angels for something (Collaspo/Morales is my guess). We stay away from FA starting pitchers this year beyond what we already did with Wada.

I'd be very happy with that deal. Andino is an ideal "sell high" candidate.

[Sports Guy]

I'm ready to make a bold prediction.

Jones and Andino to the Braves.

JJ, Prado, Minor and Perez to the O's.

No Rockies.

Andino is the savior. Just what the doctor ordered for the Braves, so they cave a bit. We keep JJ until at least the trade deadline. This trade is followed by Guthrie to the Angels for something (Collaspo/Morales is my guess). We stay away from FA starting pitchers this year beyond what we already did with Wada.

Yea, I could see something like this happening as well.

A 4-2 deal, where we take on more money than Atlanta takes on, they lose the one young starter they can easily replace and the Orioles satisfy their needs to upgrade the staff and get a good OBP guy for the top of the order.