Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[GoldGlove21]

JonHeymanCBSJon Heyman

i am finding some of #orioles moves this winter confounding, perplexing and just downright weird

Finally something I can agree with this guy about. Why in the world wouldn't you hold Guthrie for half the season and hope that he does well and you could flip him for a quality prospect? We want to fix the rotation and we deal away a guy who is better than the SP that you got back? Was another arm out of the pen that can not close that important and even if he could close, how important are wins for a team that is likely to finish below or close to .500?

This move will free up upwards of $9M in 2012 funds (Much of which goes back into the two guys you obtained), but where does any saved money go? Are we in on Cespedes now? Does this free up a Jones to the Braves for Jurrjens/Prado/Prospect deal (I do not see how one applies to the other)? Do we take on a bad contract in order to add a bat (Lee/Soriano)?

[Lucky Jim]

Finally something I can agree with this guy about. Why in the world wouldn't you hold Guthrie for half the season and hope that he does well and you could flip him for a quality prospect? We want to fix the rotation and we deal away a guy who is better than the SP that you got back? Was another arm out of the pen that can not close that important and even if he could close, how important are wins for a team that is likely to finish below or close to .500?

This move will free up upwards of $9M in 2012 funds, but where does this saved money go? Are we in on Cespedes now? Does this free up a Jones to the Braves for Jurrjens/Prado/Prospect deal (I do not see how one applies to the other)? Do we take on a bad contract in order to add a bat (Lee/Soriano)?

You may find the below helpful.

If you don't trade Guthrie before the season starts you might as well consign yourself to just getting draft pick compensation. If he's traded the team he goes to gets no compensation, so in late July they'd be trading for 1/3 of a season of a 2-3 win pitcher at near market price. That's little value at all, maybe a middling 10-15 kind of prospect, or a minor reclamation project.

I'm not big on this deal, it's kind of meh, but Hammel could well be as valuable as Guthrie this year, and they have him for 2013, and possibly two years of Lindstrom, too. It's another minor, incremental upgrade.

As to the bolded, well, that's just incorrect.

[GoldGlove21]

If it turns out the O's made this trade because of the arbitration case, I'm going to be pretty pissed. You're talking about $3 million, worst case scenario.

Yep, if this was going to be the case than you should have traded Guthrie when other arms were flying around earlier in the offseason.

[lint06]

Yeah DD might be the worst GM we have ever had. And that is saying a lot.

And there was much gnashing of teeth in the Land of Birds, for atomic spoke, and his was the might and ability to judge vice presidents of baseball operations in 90 days.

[atomic]

You may find the below helpful.

As to the bolded, well, that's just incorrect.

Well the Orioles would get a draft pick if he became a free agent and signed with another team, correct? Why not just let him pitch this year and use the pick and use his salary to sign someone next year? The year of all the great pitching free agents?

Now we are stuck paying below average players for 2013. I don't see any positive in this trade at all.

[GoldGlove21]

You may find the below helpful.

As to the bolded, well, that's just incorrect.

I made the change to my post prior to your post, but the deal still makes little sense to me. I am not a big fan of slight 1-2 year pickups. You are not going to fix this team with the Hammel and Lindstrom's of the world. I am with Tony and think that I would have held onto Guthrie and tried to move him prior to the trade deadline. Guthrie will be pitching for his next contract this season and I think that he could have one of those years where he sucks in Colorado, but pitches well everywhere elese.

[SammyBirdland]

Yeah, seems like this is less about saving money (obviously, since they aren't), and more about not paying one guy close to $10mil and have him leave as a free agent. Instead you spread that out over two guys.

Sigh.. just a lame move. Duquette is the weirdest guy, man.

Yep, definitely looking like an F-U trade.

[OsAreSick]

Not sure how I feel about the trade but who do we now consider our "#1" pitcher now?

[Lucky Jim]

Well the Orioles would get a draft pick if he became a free agent and signed with another team, correct? Why not just let him pitch this year and use the pick and use his salary to sign someone next year? The year of all the great pitching free agents?

Now we are stuck paying below average players for 2013. I don't see any positive in this trade at all.

How has this changed at all? Why can't we use what we would have paid Guthrie this year to do this next year? Please explain.

The real question is, I guess: are Hammel and Lindstrom > than a single draft pick under the new CBA?

[Floater]

I'm hearing rumors of Markakis to the Cubs for Reed Johnson and Marlon Byrd to get 2 OF that make less combined than Markakis.

[Frobby]

Well the Orioles would get a draft pick if he became a free agent and signed with another team, correct? Why not just let him pitch this year and use the pick and use his salary to sign someone next year? The year of all the great pitching free agents?

Now we are stuck paying below average players for 2013. I don't see any positive in this trade at all.

There is no reason we have to keep Hammels or Lindstrom in 2013 if they don't perform well this year.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yep, if this was going to be the case than you should have traded Guthrie when other arms were flying around earlier in the offseason.

I'm not sure why you'd think he'd be much more valuable then. Guthrie's surplus value just isn't that high. He's going to be paid a minimum of $7M and change for 2-4 rWAR or 1.5-2.5 fWAR. At most, even with a career year, he's giving you $10M in surplus value, on average maybe a few $million. Once last year's trading deadline passed you were really looking at roughly $5M in value out of him, which is basically the equivalent of a compensation pick, maybe two if you squint hard enough.

It's been about a year since there was any chance of getting a real good prospect for him.

[Fan4Life]

Not sure how I feel about the trade but who do we now consider our "#1" pitcher now?

You mean who is our best #3?

[weams]

How has this changed at all? Why can't we use what we would have paid Guthrie this year to do this next year? Please explain.

The real question is, I guess: are Hammel and Lindstrom > than a single draft pick under the new CBA?

Of course they are. And Duquette is simply stating that he intends to win more games this year than he loses. I don't love it. But the expiration date on Guthrie is passed. I think that is was probably all that iwas out there and with the new CBA, like all that ever would be.

[DrungoHazewood]

How has this changed at all? Why can't we use what we would have paid Guthrie this year to do this next year? Please explain.

The real question is, I guess: are Hammel and Lindstrom > than a single draft pick under the new CBA?

I think the answer is probably yes. Or at least close enough, with enough potential upside, to say yes. A compensation pick is only worth a few $million, and if Hammel pitches like it's 2009-2010 he's worth much more than that, above and beyond his salary.