Prediction: Matusz and Arrieta will be traded before July 31st.

[whynot38]

Here`s a list of players who from 1901 to 2012, from 1st season to 2nd season put up an ERA plus of less than 95 and started at least 10 games and started in at least 60 percent of their appearances who went on to at least one All-Star game in their career. So, I guess my answer would be it`s not unprecedented, but there are probably far more burn outs than there are names on this list (137).

link

Notables:

Ryan Dempster

Randy Johnson

Catfish Hunter

Dan Haren

Jake Peavy

Tom Glavine

Greg Maddux

Sandy Koufax

RA Dickey

[mlbbirdfan]

Curt Schilling. My first post here.

[mlbbirdfan]

on the thread question: Arrieta explained how he has changed his bullpen pre-game warmup sessions, and talked to Hammel about his mental toughness. Since that item appeared in the Sun, Jake has had three quality starts minus one pitch to Ike Davis. He looks like a totally different man on the mound, more confident. He's throwing to the glove, disregarding the hitter. Seems like he's growing. Look for him to become a quality starter over his next 5 or 6 starts; seems like he's reached a tipping point.

[OrangeJerseys]

Curt Schilling. My first post here.

Yep. Welcome to the Loony Bin.

[scOtt]

Just my two cents... I'd trade Tillman before either Brian or Jake. And I'll bet you could get something valuable for him. Some team to bet on the potential he's definitely showing again.

I just don't trust him as far as I could throw him.

You shouldn't be throwing anyone with your back, Ed!

[El Gordo]

Just my two cents... I'd trade Tillman before either Brian or Jake. And I'll bet you could get something valuable for him. Some team to bet on the potential he's definitely showing again.

I just don't trust him as far as I could throw him.

You shouldn't be throwing anyone with your back, Ed!

Me either.

[maybenxtyr]

Not wanting to start another hypothetical trade thread, so I figured I would piggy back on this one.

Would anyone here be interested in trading for Jed Lowrie and Wandy? I know Wandy has been talked about on the Hangout for years, but he actually makes a little more sense this year. He would slot in the 3sp spot this year, he eats innings and is really a decent SP option. I'm not sure that Houston would want to move Lowrie, but if the O's were picking up most of Wandys contract it could happen. Also, Lowrie really doesn't have a whole lot of 3B experience, so maybe someone could shed some light on whether or not he could work at 3B?

Just throwing it out there is all. I really do not see the Orioles matching up with the Cubs, because Chicago is willing to eat contracts for better prospects. Houston on the other hand may want to shed some payroll. I still think Jake or BMat eould have to be included in the deal, so that may turn some folks off. However, the two players from Houston could be pieces for next year as well.

[Flacco Machado]

Just throwing it out there is all. I really do not see the Orioles matching up with the Cubs, because Chicago is willing to eat contracts for better prospects. Houston on the other hand may want to shed some payroll. I still think Jake or BMat eould have to be included in the deal, so that may turn some folks off. However, the two players from Houston could be pieces for next year as well.

Good thoughts and ideas.

For me, I just think DD really wants to put his imprint on this team. Anybody that has been out of league for 9 years, that has gained the kind of power and authority that he has now, has that desire. A team that has had 14 staight years of losing is right in the middle of a playoff chase, and he is at the helm.

I think he wants to make a splash, and I think it's going to be a big one. Whether it's Garza, Headley, etc., we will most likely have to give up Matusz and Arrieta, if we are not going to trade Bundy or Machado. Again, at the end of the day, it depends on who we acquire. But, if the Guthrie trade and bullpen signings are any indication of DD and Buck's talent evaluation, then I have full faith in them if/when some big trades go down.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Good thoughts and ideas.

For me, I just think DD really wants to put his imprint on this team. Anybody that has been out of league for 9 years, that has gained the kind of power and authority that he has now, has that desire. A team that has had 14 staight years of losing is right in the middle of a playoff chase, and he is at the helm.

I think he wants to make a splash, and I think it's going to be a big one. Whether it's Garza, Headley, etc., we will most likely have to give up Matusz and Arrieta, if we are not going to trade Bundy or Machado. Again, at the end of the day, it depends on who we acquire. But, if the Guthrie trade and bullpen signings are any indication of DD and Buck's talent evaluation, then I have full faith in them if/when some big trades go down.

I think this is right, but I can't see a trade involving both Arrieta and Matusz because we can't really afford to trade more SP in our current rotation than we acquire to replace them, as it sort of defeats the purpose. I think you could see Arrieta or Matusz traded along with Tillman instead.

I'm not entirely sold on the big-trade, all in approach. Headley is a fantastic target because he's not just about this season, so he's clearly at the top of the list. But if we really want to make moves this year, I think we should target Greinke. Milwaukee stretched out their budget the last two years and is 7.5 back off the Reds (5.5 off the Cards) and has a -17 run differential. They have no farm system whatsoever and a lot of their big-name players are going to be free agents soon. Braun, Gallardo, Weeks, and Ramirez are locked up for a while, but Greinke and Marcum are gone this offseason and Hart and Wolf the following offseason.

The chips that the Orioles have to deal if they want to keep their major league team competitive and not give up Machado and Bundy are (in rough order of trade value): Schoop, Matusz, Strop, Tillman, and Avery. In order to really fill all the holes on the team, they need a SP, 3B, and LF. If we trade with the Brewers and Padres, I think we have a shot at using those 5 trade chips to fill those 3 holes.

The SP and 3B would be Greinke and Headley, but the LF could be either Will Venable from the Padres or Corey Hart from the Brewers. Strop would be of greatest interest to the Brewers and Matusz of greatest interest to the Padres, but the other 3 players are interchangeable. I think maybe something like:

Brewers trade: Greinke, Hart

Brewers get: Schoop, Strop, Tillman, maybe a low pitcher like Wright or Schrader

Padres trade: Headley

Padres get: Matusz, Avery, maybe a low minor leaguer

Orioles get: Greinke, Headley, Hart

Orioles trade: Schoop, Matusz, Strop, Tillman, Avery, potentially two lower minor leaguers

That's a lot of talent to give up but we'd be getting back some excellent pieces that transform this team into a real competitor. In addition, it's not all about this season, as Headley is under control for two more years and Hart for one more. Perhaps making a run at the playoffs with Greinke will increase our chances at resigning him, or we can work out an extension before then. If not, we still get draft pick compensation.

We'd still be stuck with Hunter/Britton/Gonzalez/Eveland as our 5th starter, but the improvement from Matusz to Greinke is astronomical. Perhaps we make a minor trade for Saunders or Colon, but it's not entirely necessary. Frobby made a great thread about how abysmal our 1 and 2 hitters have been at getting on base - Headley fixes the leadoff spot and Hart gives the lineup more depth through the middle to move Markakis to the number 2 spot. Headley provides great defense and Hart should be at least average as a LF, which are both big improvements over what we've had so far. Strop's loss would be difficult but not unbearable with the return of Lindstrom.

Altogether, even though I'm not sold that we should be making a big splash this trading deadline, this is probably our best case scenario if we're going to do it. I don't want to have to take Soriano or pay too much for the likes of Garza, Dempster, or McCarthy. Everybody on the SP trade block outside of Greinke has serious flaws that will probably make them cost more than they're worth, so if we're going to go for it, we should go this route.

[Flacco Machado]

29 days and counting...

[allquixotic]

Well I hope they both go, I'm done waiting for them. How many chances can they get to show they belong here. I think they're just another group of players from our horrible farm system. Now DD needs to clean it up and get some teams to give up actual good players for our young disappointments

Exactly. How many chances are they gonna get?

All the people who say they have potential ... are you still gonna be saying that when they're 45 years old? How old and how many chances do they have to get before we decide that, nope, we were wrong all along about these guys and they're just not ML material?

On the other hand, if you want to trade them then we definitely need to convince somebody that they are ML material. But that's marketing, and we're free to lie, cheat and steal our way to trading them away as actually valuable pieces (which my gut instinct tells me will be about as good of a steal as the Bedard trade if so).

Soapbox

Potential does not make someone a good ML starting pitcher. Flashes of greatness do not make someone a good ML starting pitcher. Nobody has ever tried to use lightning as a primary grid power plant. I mean, each bolt of lightning produces a LOT of electricity, so if we can harvest it, it'd be great -- right? Yeah, but the problem is that lightning is not consistent. You can't rely on it to be there. When your capacitors run dry after getting a lightning strike, you never know when, or if, the next one will come. There would be riots in the streets if power were only available during storm season (and that's a touchy topic right now because it also appears that power ironically isn't available during storm season either, so I'll leave that one alone ).

To continue the power analogy, we need starting pitchers that are like diesel generators. You put gas in the tank (give them a few days' rest), plug them in (give them the glove), and you can expect to get a certain amount of "mileage" (innings) on that tank of gas, pretty reliably (with small variations in a tight band). 7 innings of 3 run ball would be the ideal imho. You know what you're gonna get out of them, every single time. Well, maybe not every time -- they have to break down eventually, but if you're fond of that diesel generator then you can repair it.

If Matusz and Arrieta are lightning storms producing the rare and inconsistent "holy ****" blast of energy, then Hammel, Chen, Hunter and Jim Johnson are diesel generators of varying qualities. You know you're going to have electricity with them running most of the time, but you might get one of them that knocks every few minutes and the lights flicker or something like that. But still, you have power, and you can get through with them until the tank runs empty.

I'd much rather have consistent but average pitchers who regularly surrender 3-4 runs but can go deep in games, rather than inconsistent but frail pitchers who get pulled prior to the 5th inning after surrendering 5+ runs, but occasionally have an outing (or a short string of outings) where they appear eligible for the Cy Young award.

My feeling is that the overall ML-ish-caliber pitching stock available (across all franchises) right now is distributed something like this: 80% guys who are like Arrieta/Matusz, lightning storms with flashes of awesome and suck most of the time; 19.9% guys who are like Hunter and Chen and Hammel who are somewhat cranky but consistent diesel generators; and 0.1% guys who combine the qualities of both a brand new, flawless diesel generator and the overwhelming power of a lightning strike into one player. Those are exceptionally rare, and the Yankees seem to get every single one of them on their team, so we need to be looking at the 19.9% group rather than the 80% group. That would still put us in contention for the wildcard if we could replace our storms with diesels.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Cindy is saying NO NO to both!!!!!!!

[Flacco Machado]

Thought we had a thread about this topic?

[SouthRider]

If any of the Cavalry get moved it would be Tillman IMO.

Can we please stop calling these guys "The Cavalry"? If Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta are the cavalry then Baltimore must be Little Bighorn.

[Boca Bird]

I remember back in the day, there was a thread on here where ppl would NOT trade

Matusz straight up for MCab (not a joke)