Matzusaka officially given permission...

[DrungoHazewood]

If something occurred to grant that guy free agency, would you invest $60M in him? Who is that guy this year? Hughes perhaps? If Hughes became a free agent this year, would you invest $60M in him?

More importantly, how would you have done over the long term if you did it for that one guy each year. Maybe this year his name is Hughes. No one can tell if he is actually worth that type of investment. Last year maybe that guy was Liriano....after one year, it APPEARS he would have been worth that type of investment, mysterious injury notwithstanding. Two years ago that guy was Felix Hernandez... one great rookie year, one good but not great year...probably worth it. But one year that guy might have been named Ankiel. Or Dreifort.

I don't know, I'm not taking a position. If you took the best prospect on the cusp of the majors each year, who had never pitched in the majors before, and signed him to a contract that is equivalent to what an ace gets (say like Mussina's deal), how would you have done in the long run?

I might. See... the difference between Matsuzaka and Hughes or Liriano or Hernandez is that he's past the injury nexus. Around age 25 the incidence of devestating injuries falls off, or at least levels off. Those younger guys are still pitching on immature arms, and you still have to be very careful with them.

Matsuzaka was dunked in the pond to see if he was a witch. They drug him up 20 minutes later and he was fine - he is a witch! In other words, there are a few pitchers every generation who can pitch ungodly numbers of innings or pitches and their arm is fine. The way baseball tests this is to throw them out there and see if their arm falls off. Matsuzaka's didn't. Hughes, Liriano, and Hernandez - the jury's still out.

[srock]

A note on this whole when he becomes an actual free agent thing. It is true if some team wins the bid but cannot sign him that he would go back to play for the Seibu Lions for one more year and then he would become a Free Agent eligible to sign with any team including MLB teams. If this happens it is %99 certain he is a Yankee or Mariner since those are the teams with a Japanese presence. Even better, if the player isn't signed it doesn't cost the Orioles a dime AND Matsuzaka can't sign in the Majors until next season!

The posting system allows other teams the opportunity to sign him this season for however long they want. Winning the posting is essentially a bride paid to the Nippon league that makes it impossible for the player to go be a Yankee for at least another year.

The Orioles have to look at this as an investment in the organization that has the potential to give the Orioles a presence in Asia which is a huge market on the rise when it comes to players, fans base, and advertising revenue streams. If Matsuzaka is a flop and/or the revenue steams don't pan out, well it happens, but I say it is worth the risk.

The best part is the risk involves the one asset the Orioles franchise has not named Tejada...CASH. The only thing at risk is money and the Peter Angelos Orioles have it in excess. They don't have depth in the farm system to trade prospects, they don't have depth in the majors to trade veterans, and they don't have a reputation that attracts free agents. The only ways I see to improve are to keep stocking the farm system for the future (long term) and by signing Matsuzaka (short term).

[Dr. FLK]

The best part is the risk involves the one asset the Orioles franchise has not named Tejada...CASH. The only thing at risk is money and the Peter Angelos Orioles have it in excess. .

And, this is an investment that pays off, no matter how succesful the pitcher is. It immediately increases your fan base by a huge factor. It immediately increases the coverage of your team to a gigantic baseball-crazed market. If he does flop, this investment still helps the team financially. Maybe someone will convince Angelos to look at is from that perspective...

[geschinger]

I might. See... the difference between Matsuzaka and Hughes or Liriano or Hernandez is that he's past the injury nexus. Around age 25 the incidence of devestating injuries falls off, or at least levels off. Those younger guys are still pitching on immature arms, and you still have to be very careful with them.

Getting back to how he was used.. Do other Japanese young pitchers suffer injuries at the same rate as those over here? In other words if MLB teams started giving young guys 6 days rest between starts and stopped worrying about pitch counts would we expect to see a big difference in the incidence of devastating injuries?

[srock]

Getting back to how he was used.. Do other Japanese young pitchers suffer injuries at the same rate as those over here? In other words if MLB teams started giving young guys 6 days rest between starts and stopped worrying about pitch counts would we expect to see a big difference in the incidence of devastating injuries?

I believe the only way to reduce the incredibly high injury rate for young pitchers is teaching them to throw side arm/submarine. It is so much easier on the shoulder and elbow it almost laughable so few players try it.

[JTrea81]

Here's another reason why we won't go after him from mlbtraderumors.com

His agent is Scott Boras, and none of his players have been known to sign on the cheap. But certainly the club will be looking for a long contract what with the money they'll have just spent to simply acquire the rights to sign Matsuzaka. I've heard numbers as high as $70 million for the contract, if you can believe that

There is no way that Angelos will pay 70 million for an unproven player.

[srock]

Here's another reason why we won't go after him from mlbtraderumors.com

His agent is Scott Boras, and none of his players have been known to sign on the cheap. But certainly the club will be looking for a long contract what with the money they'll have just spent to simply acquire the rights to sign Matsuzaka. I've heard numbers as high as $70 million for the contract, if you can believe that

There is no way that Angelos will pay 70 million for an unproven player.

I just put up a new thread about this called 'Japanese Free Agent Info'.

[DrungoHazewood]

Getting back to how he was used.. Do other Japanese young pitchers suffer injuries at the same rate as those over here? In other words if MLB teams started giving young guys 6 days rest between starts and stopped worrying about pitch counts would we expect to see a big difference in the incidence of devastating injuries?

I have no idea, and no clue how to find the relevent information.

I think we need to get a partnership going with Fukuoka Softbank Hawks Hangout so we can find somebody who can get us some Japanese injury data.

[geschinger]

I have no idea, and no clue how to find the relevent information.

I think we need to get a partnership going with Fukuoka Softbank Hawks Hangout so we can find somebody who can get us some Japanese injury data.

Heh, I'll make it my quest to find the Japenese Will Carroll. Back to the original idea in the thread I'd still be somewhat skeptical at just what kind of performance to expect from Matz. I know there are a lot of examples of relievers having success coming over from Japan but with starters after Nomo the ones that come to mind - Ishii and Irabu - were disappointments.

[DrungoHazewood]

Heh, I'll make it my quest to find the Japenese Will Carroll. Back to the original idea in the thread I'd still be somewhat skeptical at just what kind of performance to expect from Matz. I know there are a lot of examples of relievers having success coming over from Japan but with starters after Nomo the ones that come to mind - Ishii and Irabu - were disappointments.

Ishii and Irabu posted numbers in Japan that were significantly worse than Matsuzaka. Ishii was up and down, injured quite a bit, and only had a few scattered years like Matsuzaka. Irabu was pretty good, but nowhere near Matsuzaka - he walked more and had higher ERAs.

Matsuzaka has had six years in the 2.00s and is coming off a 17-5, 2.13 year with 200 Ks and 139 hits allowed in 186.1 innings.

[rolliefingers]

Ishii and Irabu posted numbers in Japan that were significantly worse than Matsuzaka. Ishii was up and down, injured quite a bit, and only had a few scattered years like Matsuzaka. Irabu was pretty good, but nowhere near Matsuzaka - he walked more and had higher ERAs.

Matsuzaka has had six years in the 2.00s and is coming off a 17-5, 2.13 year with 200 Ks and 139 hits allowed in 186.1 innings.

Yeah, we should definitely be all over this guy.

[P.R.G.]

One thing from MLBtraderumors that is encouraging:

So far, I've seen reports on the following teams interested in Matsuzaka: Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, and Mariners. Based on Japanese media have any other MLB teams scouted him?

[b}All the clubs have scouted him,[/b] but it really comes down to the wherewithal to place the big bet. Also, with regard to your list, I wouldn't count San Diego out.

The scouting thing is one thing I'd take as reliable. Japanese baseball is about as well covered in Japan as the major leagues. It would be noticed and known when someone froma MLB team shows up to look at a player. That being said, at least the FO bothered to send someone to take a look. I doubt they would have done that 5 years ago.

When this was discussed earlier this summer I ran the numbers, assuming the TV money goes to MASN. If the TV money goes to MASN, the posting fee is a moot point. 30 appearances a year for 3 years for the O's on NHK or whatever Japanese TV network to a viewing population of 128 million is proabably worth $333,333.33 a game for TV rights. $333k times 90 appearances is of course a $30mil posting fee paid,

[Mackus]

When this was discussed earlier this summer I ran the numbers, assuming the TV money goes to MASN. If the TV money goes to MASN, the posting fee is a moot point. 30 appearances a year for 3 years for the O's on NHK or whatever Japanese TV network to a viewing population of 128 million is proabably worth $333,333.33 a game for TV rights. $333k times 90 appearances is of course a $30mil posting fee paid,

The Orioles will not get one penny from any game showed in Japan.

The Yankees and the Mariners split the Japenese TV market and receive all of the revenue.

Do not look at Matsuzaka as an investment outside of his baseball abilities. He may be able to bring in a bit more revenue than your average FA in ticket sales and advertising, but he's not going to be the cash cows that Ichiro and Matsui were for their teams.

Now, if he explodes and somehow MLB redraws the rules regarding television revenue and the Orioles get a share of the Japanese market, then thats an entirely different story. But I think that scenario is about as likely as the odds of us signing him, which are not good.

[srock]

The Orioles will not get one penny from any game showed in Japan.

The Yankees and the Mariners split the Japenese TV market and receive all of the revenue.

Do not look at Matsuzaka as an investment outside of his baseball abilities. He may be able to bring in a bit more revenue than your average FA in ticket sales and advertising, but he's not going to be the cash cows that Ichiro and Matsui were for their teams.

Now, if he explodes and somehow MLB redraws the rules regarding television revenue and the Orioles get a share of the Japanese market, then thats an entirely different story. But I think that scenario is about as likely as the odds of us signing him, which are not good.

I understand MLB is a strange organization that does alot of strange things, but I can't see why they wouldn't encourage more MLB teams gaining popularity in Japan. Giving the Mariners and Yankees some sort of ologopoly on the market just doesn't make sense for the rest of the league.

To make another point, they really should make all international players enter MLB through the draft so all teams have a shot at them.

[Sports Guy]

I understand MLB is a strange organization that does alot of strange things, but I can't see why they wouldn't encourage more MLB teams gaining popularity in Japan. Giving the Mariners and Yankees some sort of ologopoly on the market just doesn't make sense for the rest of the league.

To make another point, they really should make all international players enter MLB through the draft so all teams have a shot at them.

Right....MLB can not tell another team that they can't have their games showed in another country.

Do any of you think MLB teams would sign off on something like that?