Mark Reynolds Value Hard to Measure

[radar303]

Reynolds is what the season is all about. Watching him play everyday doesn't really matter, he defies any type of logic and stats. He wins games when you least expect it. When he is striking out, he is not even close. Hardly ever fouls balls off when he is struggling... yet draws walks. He is a tough out and pitchers must throw him strikes or he is walking to first. His homeruns are also not in doubt. Very hard to quantify as a player, I guess that is why he seems like an afterthought. We all seem to want to replace him... yet he can do some things. The O's are a bunch of weird parts. Pitchers are "never was's or who are they" and the players are ALL in the wrong places in the lineup. It all is working and the pitching staff is fresh(unlike 1989). Not sure if Reynolds is a long term solution but he stays healthy and is less streaky than many others. Doesn't seem to stack up against AL First Baseman in any manner yet he has had many of the biggest hits of the season. Tough Call. Weird Player.

[waroriole]

Please disagree without insulting me. I believe you try to summarize everything into UZIs and WAR and real life isn't that simple. You need to watch the game. Their is still a place in this game for human judgment. Not everything can be measured. You disagree. Fine. We are diametrically opposed on the issue. See, I can make a point without insulting you, you should try to do the same thing.

All you've done is insult people, create strawman arguments and talk about how only you understand the game. It's gotten really sad.

[CA-ORIOLE]

No, what I meant was bb-ref says Reynolds has been worth five batting runs, or that's he five runs better than an average hitter.

OK, I see it. More of a Fangraphs guy.

[DrungoHazewood]

Of course one of the big things he has brought to defense at 1B is his ability to handle bad throws,

Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't believe either of those defensive metrics even ATTEMPTS to measure that extremely important component of a 1Bman's defense.

We should stop calling them "defensive metrics" and call them what they are, "range metrics" so no one gets the idea they in any even attempt to provide a complete assessment of a 1Bman's defensive contributions.

Sent from my DROID Pro using Tapatalk 2

I'm not sure if UZR includes the scoop data that's on Fangraphs, but it's definitely tracked. Reynolds averages 4.32 scoops per 100 innings, while the average first baseman (min 100 innings) averages 3.13. So over his 695 innings Reynolds has scooped roughly 7 balls that an average first baseman wouldn't. Assuming that each of those turns a single into an out, that's about +3 runs.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm not sure if UZR includes the scoop data that's on Fangraphs, but it's definitely tracked. Reynolds averages 4.32 scoops per 100 innings, while the average first baseman (min 100 innings) averages 3.13. So over his 695 innings Reynolds has scooped roughly 7 balls that an average first baseman wouldn't. Assuming that each of those turns a single into an out, that's about +3 runs.

Pretty sure DRS weights it. DRS takes more subjective inputs through their video scouts. Not sure abut UZR. I'd guess it doesn't.

[Pickles]

I'm not sure if UZR includes the scoop data that's on Fangraphs, but it's definitely tracked. Reynolds averages 4.32 scoops per 100 innings, while the average first baseman (min 100 innings) averages 3.13. So over his 695 innings Reynolds has scooped roughly 7 balls that an average first baseman wouldn't. Assuming that each of those turns a single into an out, that's about +3 runs.

I don't think that's a good assumption. Surely several of those would turn into "doubles."

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think that's a good assumption. Surely several of those would turn into "doubles."

Ok, so four runs.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm not sure if UZR includes the scoop data that's on Fangraphs, but it's definitely tracked. Reynolds averages 4.32 scoops per 100 innings, while the average first baseman (min 100 innings) averages 3.13. So over his 695 innings Reynolds has scooped roughly 7 balls that an average first baseman wouldn't. Assuming that each of those turns a single into an out, that's about +3 runs.

I'm thinking it probably doesn't and the significance is less. They are certainly singes in some cases (and Reynolds seems to have had his share), but it might theoretically only prevent an error (but even that may be somewhat insignificant) if you consider how many "non-scoops" were knocked down or were backed up and/or bounced back off the wall. Also, a very minor point, but all singles are not created equal (from the defensive metrics standpoint anyways). I'm pretty sure an IF single would be weighted slightly less than an OF single.

[El Gordo]

I mainly cited this year's RISP stats because we were discussing this year's "productive out" stats. His "productive out" rate this year is lower than his career average, so if his value is going to be dinged for that, you have to give him the credit for having a better than average year with RISP, too.

To put it in career terms, Reynolds has a productive out about 22% of the time, compared to 32% league average. He averages about 50 opportunities a year, so he makes maybe 5 fewer productive outs in a season than the average player. But, you'd need to weigh that against his .254/.359/.507 OPS in RISP situations. Overall, I'd still say he's a pretty good guy to have up with runners on base, despite his strikeout tendencies and his (related) tendency not to make productive outs.

I think it's important for people to realize that the average major leaguer only makes a productive out in 32% of his opportunities. It's not like advancing runners on an out is automatic in MLB.

IMO a productive out should include a high P/PA. If its a RISP situation and the a 12 P AB ends in a K it can still contribute to a rally by wearing down the SP..

[CA-ORIOLE]

IMO a productive out should include a high P/PA. If its a RISP situation and the a 12 P AB ends in a K it can still contribute to a rally by wearing down the SP..

POFO counts them.

[El Gordo]

IMO defensive metrics don't track 3B or 1B as accurately as other positions. These positions are primarily reflex positions in terms of range. In those situations minor fluctuations in velocity of BIP, which currently aren't measured, or spin or wierd hops due to field conditions could mean a lot more in comparing players.Less time to adjust. In adition the added 1B responsiblities of holding runners, before positioning for a play, would seem to me to be difficult to factor in. The value of scoops also I don't think can be accurately measured. Besides turming an IFH into an out, the value in pitches saved should be considered. Also a SS who has confidence in his 1B will make a play that he might put in his pocket with a poor 1B. Much like a good C will alow a P to throw his SL. I'm sure if it were put to a vote all O's IF would want Reynolds at 1B next year.

[Frobby]

IMO a productive out should include a high P/PA. If its a RISP situation and the a 12 P AB ends in a K it can still contribute to a rally by wearing down the SP..

This is a very good point. It's hard to quantify the effect, but you can sense it sometimes when you are watching a game. I'd love to know the average OPS of a batter who follows an at bat that took 10+ pitches. I bet it's pretty high.

[brianod]

All you've done is insult people, create strawman arguments and talk about how only you understand the game. It's gotten really sad.

I don't want to feud with another diehard Orioles fan during these very good times. So, I'll bite my tongue and offer the olive branch. I'll do my best to be respectful of you and your opinions and I hope you can do the same for mine. No guarantees but if we both try hard, we'll probably even agree from time to time:)

[MurphDogg]

Maybe. Lets see how he finishes first and then I'll come up with some odds.

How about now?

[brianod]

How about now?

Reynolds obviously is a polarizing figure. After half the season I wanted him benched. After tonight, guys probably want to throw money at him. Let's let this play out, take a breath and make the judgement after the season.