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Mark Reynolds Value Hard to Measure

brianod

By brianod
in Orioles Talk

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brianod All-Star

brianod

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The defensive metrics may not agree with this that I know of, but I love the way he has been playing first.

Defensive Metrics? Come on man. He's been great at first. Trust your eyes, defensive metrics be damned. Trying to measure defense with statistics is a notoriously difficult proposition. All these fancy stats are nice and they may or may not be meaningful. I can guarantee one thing, they aren't always right. That's the definition of statistics...

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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You are talking about an unproductive out. This team makes a lot of them, and I'd bet Reynolds isn't the leader in this dept. It would be interesting to see some numbers, to find out who the biggest rally killing culprits are and how they compare to the rest of the league.

I posted a link to BB-Ref's unproductive out stats the other day. Major league average is that a player who bats who advances a runner with thecfirst out or drives in a run with the second out 32% of the time. The Orioles average 30%. Reyn

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blid Major Leaguer Rising Star

blid

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They don't. FB and UZR have him at -3 RS and Rtot has him at -8.
Defensive metrics can be so bad sometimes. This is part SSS I'm sure, and part they just aren't that accurate still. Since we all watch the games, I think we can tell Reynolds is fielding like a champ lately.
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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You are talking about an unproductive out. This team makes a lot of them, and I'd bet Reynolds isn't the leader in this dept. It would be interesting to see some numbers, to find out who the biggest rally killing culprits are and how they compare to the rest of the league.

BB ref says the major league average for moving a runner over with the first out or knocking in a runner with the second out is 32%, while the Orioles average 31%. Reynolds is worst on the Orioles, at 14%. To put it in perspective, Reynolds has had 36 opportunities and made a productive out 5 times, whereas average would be 11-12. So he failed to advance a runner 6-7 more times than average. Maybe that cost 4-5 runs over the season so far.

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brianod All-Star

brianod

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BB ref says the major league average for moving arunner over with the first out or knocking in a runner is 32%, while the Orioles average 31%. Reynolds is worst on the Orioles, at 14%. To put it in perspective, Reynolds has had 36 opportunities and made a productive out 5 times, whereas average would be 11-12.

I'm glad to see my eyes don't deceive me all the time:) Little things like this win and lose games and have to be considered in player evaluation imo.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I'm glad to see my eyes don't deceive me all the time:) Little things like this win and lose games and have to be considered in player evaluation imo.

I agree it should be weighed. But the fact that he is hitting .289/.404/.632 with runners in scoring position also has to get weighed.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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I guess we'll find out what his value is in about 3 months. I think the Orioles will buy out his contract for $500,000 and try to resign him at about 1 year and 6 million. We'll see if he has other suitors. Perhaps...

Well the miumim we could offer him in arbitation would be 6 mil, so I'm guessing he won't take that.

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