Eduardo A. Encina says the O's will dangle Tillman- Winter Meetings

[weams]

If you think about it, if anybody had suggested Tillman for Butler last December, they would have been laughed off the board. Amazing what half a season will do for people's perspective on a player.

History is a fantastic subject. I have always enjoyed it.

[wildcard]

Buck has said many times " Its about the pitching". Starting Pitching to be more specific. If the O's don't have good starting pitching they are not a contending team.

The best shot for the O's to contend is to start the season with season with Hammel, Chen, Tillman and Gonzalez or better. Depleting the quality of the starting pitching makes them non contenders. If they can't get a MOO bat without trading one, then they take their chances without a MOO bat.

Good starting pitching is expensive to acquire through trade or free agency. Saunders history shows him to be a fifth starter and not a good replacement for any of the above four starters. His earned runs and hits allowed make him a bottom of the rotation starter.

[luismatos4prez]

If you think about it, if anybody had suggested Tillman for Butler last December, they would have been laughed off the board. Amazing what half a season will do for people's perspective on a player.

With good reason. Even Keith Law was impressed. He said with Tillman's fixed mechanics, he looked like a future TOR starter again, and he thinks he'll have a great year next year.

[Tx Oriole]

That is just wrong. If the O's want to contend in 2013 they don't have the depth of decent starting pitching to trade Tillman for a MOO bat. The only decent starters they have to open the season with are Hammel, Chen, Tillman and Gonzalez. If they would trade any of them it would have to be for better starting pitching IMO.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-five-questions-for-orioles-baseball-winter-meetings-pictures-2012,0,4461079.photogallery

What say you?

I will just leave this up to DD.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

A TOR in the hand(Tillman) is worth two possible TORs in the minors(Bundy and Gausman).

[luismatos4prez]

A TOR in the hand(Tillman) is worth two possible TORs in the minors(Bundy and Gausman).

I agree with that premise, but I wouldn't call Tillman a TOR in the hand as of today.

More like Verlander, Price, Strasburg, etc.

[OrioleMagic79]

I agree with that premise, but I wouldn't call Tillman a TOR in the hand as of today.

More like Verlander, Price, Strasburg, etc.

Yeah, I agree. Tillman could get there, but right now at his current level of production, he is a #3, possibly #2 SP...but more like a #3 for most serious contenders.

That doesn't mean I want to trade him, but just saying if he is our TORSP, then we again don't have a TORSP at this point...maybe if he comes along and continues to progress he can get there. But he could also be like Matusz from a few years ago and have a great second half only to totally regress again the following season. Or Britton for that matter.

His second half was promising for sure, but we've seen this story before with a few of our young SPs, and so far the story has ended up going in the wrong direction. Let's hope for a better result this time around...

[wildcard]

Yeah, I agree. Tillman could get there, but right now at his current level of production, he is a #3, possibly #2 SP...but more like a #3 for most serious contenders.

That doesn't mean I want to trade him, but just saying if he is our TORSP, then we again don't have a TORSP at this point...maybe if he comes along and continues to progress he can get there. But he could also be like Matusz from a few years ago and have a great second half only to totally regress again the following season. Or Britton for that matter.

His second half was promising for sure, but we've seen this story before with a few of our young SPs, and so far the story has ended up going in the wrong direction. Let's hope for a better result this time around...

What you have just described is why the O's shouldn't trade any of their SP. Any of the the starters could improve or regress. There is safety in numbers. When Bundy and Gausman are ready for the majors, that is when the O's should be trading starters.

[mdbdotcom]

If it's fair to assume that Tillman will be a #1, 2, or 3 for the entire season, then it should also be fair to assume that Chen and Gonzalez will improve because they will be better prepared for a full season of pitching every fifth day, and Hammel will be better because his knee is better. If trading Tillman can bring in a high OBP guy with some pop, I'm fine with trading him and taking our chances with Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, Johnson, Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton. And maybe you sign Saunders.

[wildcard]

If it's fair to assume that Tillman will be a #1, 2, or 3 for the entire season, then it should also be fair to assume that Chen and Gonzalez will improve because they will be better prepared for a full season of pitching every fifth day, and Hammel will be better because his knee is better. If trading Tillman can bring in a high OBP guy with some pop, I'm fine with trading him and taking our chances with Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, Johnson, Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton. And maybe you sign Saunders.

You are ignoring Buck which is not a good thing to do. "Its about the pitching"

[andrewrickli]

2012 MLB 2012 MiLB

9-3 W-L 8-8 W-L

2.93 ERA 3.63 ERA

86.0 IP 89.1 IP

66 Hits 85 Hits

28 ER 36 ER

24 BB 30 BB

66 K's 92 K's

1.047 WHIP 1.287 WHIP

6.9 K/9 9.3 K/9

Combined Chris Tillman 2012 season:

17-11 W-L

3.28 ERA

175.1 IP

151 Hits

64 ER

54 BB

158 K's

1.170 WHIP

8.1 K/9

I thought that you guys would like to see what Chris Tillman did over a full season at AAA and MLB. He was a 17 game winner (more wins coming in MLB), 1.170 WHIP, 3.28 ERA, and had a 8.1 K/9.

Is this a guy you are willing to give up to get guys like Eric Hosmer or Billy Butler? I like Tillman, but I would strongly consider and decision that involves Tillman this week if I were DD.

Stats per Baseball-Reference

[mdbdotcom]

You are ignoring Buck which is not a good thing to do. "Its about the pitching"

I don't think I did that at all. As I attempted to express, I think there is reason to believe the pitching will be fine without Tillman. I saw Tillman not pitch in the playoffs. It was Buck that didn't pitch him in those five games. Tillman might be ready for prime time, and he might not. Either way, we should be able to get by without him.

[mdbdotcom]

Sure I would, if I could get the kind of return the O's got for either Erik Bedard or Milt Pappas. Actually, I'd probably be willing to take a little less than we got in those deals.

[OrioleMagic79]

"So he's worse in AAA than in the Big Leagues...it's a good thing he doesn't have to face those AAA batters anymore..."

^^^^ This makes about as much sense to me as your combining of AAA stats to try and convince me of how we should look at Tillman as a 17 game winner...

[wildcard]

I don't think I did that at all. As I attempted to express, I think there is reason to believe the pitching will be fine without Tillman. I saw Tillman not pitch in the playoffs. It was Buck that didn't pitch him in those five games. Tillman might be ready for prime time, and he might not. Either way, we should be able to get by without him.

Get along? Maybe. Contend? No. The O's need four starters as good as Hammel, Chen, Tillman and Gonzalez or better. Trying to go with less quality at starter makes the O's a non contender IMO.