Eduardo A. Encina says the O's will dangle Tillman- Winter Meetings

[andrewrickli]

"So he's worse in AAA than in the Big Leagues...it's a good thing he doesn't have to face those AAA batters anymore..."

^^^^ This makes about as much sense to me as your combining of AAA stats to try and convince me of how we should look at Tillman as a 17 game winner...

I never said that.

As to your second comment, I just wanted to show what he had done over a full year, is that not acceptable? Duquette is the one who mentioned it first on MLB Network Radio a few weeks ago.

In the end, no one has to "convince" you. You aren't the EVP that Duquette is. In DD, I trust. I was just magnifying what Duquette has said on MLB Network Radio. I wanted to combine all of his stats and see what they looked like.

[Loophole]

Everyone looks a lot better when you mix in their AAA stats.

His Ks went way down in the majors. This is the issue, and this is probably why the O's are trying to sell high. It's silly to show off his 'combined' win total and ignore the 100-point loss in BABIP from the minors to the majors.

[Frobby]

Trading Tillman involves some risk. He struggled for a couple of seasons before this one. He's no sure thing to win 17 games, or even 10, but his odds look way better than they did last year. I'd really have to think hard before trading him.

[Frobby]

Buck has said many times " Its about the pitching". Starting Pitching to be more specific. If the O's don't have good starting pitching they are not a contending team.

The best shot for the O's to contend is to start the season with season with Hammel, Chen, Tillman and Gonzalez or better. Depleting the quality of the starting pitching makes them non contenders. If they can't get a MOO bat without trading one, then they take their chances without a MOO bat.

Good starting pitching is expensive to acquire through trade or free agency. Saunders history shows him to be a fifth starter and not a good replacement for any of the above four starters. His earned runs and hits allowed make him a bottom of the rotation starter.

I pretty much agree. When the O's pitch well, they win. That's been proven the last two years, and I'd err on the side of having one too many starting pitchers rather than one too few.

[25 Nuggets]

True, but if the Orioles want their MOO bat and they are going to trade for him, they will deal from their depth which is pitching, and of that depth there are only a couple names (Tillman, Bundy) that will help land a marquis player IMO.

[OrioleMagic79]

I never said that.

As to your second comment, I just wanted to show what he had done over a full year, is that not acceptable? Duquette is the one who mentioned it first on MLB Network Radio a few weeks ago.

In the end, no one has to "convince" you. You aren't the EVP that Duquette is. In DD, I trust. I was just magnifying what Duquette has said on MLB Network Radio. I wanted to combine all of his stats and see what they looked like.

I didn't say that you said it...I was making it clear how silly I felt it was to combine AAA stats with MLB stats...and then call him a "17 game winner"...that's all...

[Tx Oriole]

Trading Tillman involves some risk. He struggled for a couple of seasons before this one. He's no sure thing to win 17 games, or even 10, but his odds look way better than they did last year. I'd really have to think hard before trading him.

Me too. I guess we have to trust that DD will make a good deal

if Tillman is traded.

[andrewrickli]

I didn't say that you said it...I was making it clear how silly I felt it was to combine AAA stats with MLB stats...and then call him a "17 game winner"...that's all...

I mean, statistically speaking, Tillman did win 17 games in 2012. However, yes, they were between AAA and MLB.

[andrewrickli]

I do not want to trade chris tillman. Period. Big mistake if we do.

Why because of one good half of a season?

[oriole]

Tillman has been pretty awful for quite a bit now. Just because he had a decent HALF season doesn't mean that he should be considered an absolutely necessary piece for a contending Orioles team. If the Orioles can sell him as a potential TOR starter than that is just smart baseball. Butler has been consistent for years and he is someone you can count on. Tillman is still a wild card in that it wouldn't shock me if he finally put it together or regresses back to the mean of his ML career. Anyone remember Matusz's HALF season of dominence? How's he doing now? Oh, that's right...he is considered a lefty match up guy with that elusive upside.

[Il BuonO]

If it's fair to assume that Tillman will be a #1, 2, or 3 for the entire season, then it should also be fair to assume that Chen and Gonzalez will improve because they will be better prepared for a full season of pitching every fifth day, and Hammel will be better because his knee is better. If trading Tillman can bring in a high OBP guy with some pop, I'm fine with trading him and taking our chances with Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, Johnson, Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton. And maybe you sign Saunders.

What you have just described is why the O's shouldn't trade any of their SP. Any of the the starters could improve or regress. There is safety in numbers. When Bundy and Gausman are ready for the majors, that is when the O's should be trading starters.

I pretty much agree. When the O's pitch well, they win. That's been proven the last two years, and I'd err on the side of having one too many starting pitchers rather than one too few.

I do not want to trade chris tillman. Period. Big mistake if we do.

Why because of one good half of a season?

Did I miss something or didn't those games count?

Yeah, because of that and he's under six years of team control. It's called V A L U E.

And don't even start with the he's been awful for most of his career garbage. He is a completely different pitcher now and most people who have watched him for his career know that.

"It's all about the pitching." -Buck

[wildcard]

Tillman has been pretty awful for quite a bit now. Just because he had a decent HALF season doesn't mean that he should be considered an absolutely necessary piece for a contending Orioles team. If the Orioles can sell him as a potential TOR starter than that is just smart baseball. Butler has been consistent for years and he is someone you can count on. Tillman is still a wild card in that it wouldn't shock me if he finally put it together or regresses back to the mean of his ML career. Anyone remember Matusz's HALF season of dominence? How's he doing now? Oh, that's right...he is considered a lefty match up guy with that elusive upside.

You can go get all the hitting in the world and if you don't have the pitching to contend......you won't. I am not against trading Tillman. But I am against lowering the quality of the starting pitching that the O's have. If you trade Tillman, trade him for better pitching. " Its all about the pitching." Trading one of Britton, Matusz, Hunter, Steve Johnson, Arrieta along with some other O's prospects not named Bundy, Gausman or Schoop for a hitter makes some sense. If that is not enough to get the hitting you want, resign Reynolds.

[Three Run Homer]

I think Tillman for Hosmer straight up is a fair trade of two talented players with very high ceilings. I probably wouldn't do it if I were DD, because I think a front line starter is a scarcer commodity and more valuable than a middle of the order hitter, but maybe that's just me.

No way in hell do I trade MORE than Tillman for Hosmer or Butler.

[oriole]

You can go get all the hitting in the world and if you don't have the pitching to contend......you won't. I am not against trading Tillman. But I am against lowering the quality of the starting pitching that the O's have. If you trade Tillman, trade him for better pitching. " Its all about the pitching." Trading one of Britton, Matusz, Hunter, Steve Johnson, Arrieta along with some other O's prospects not named Bundy, Gausman or Schoop for a hitter makes some sense. If that is not enough to get the hitting you want, resign Reynolds.

"It's all about the pitching." This is thrown around a lot and I totally agree with it 100%, but you just can't count on a guy like Tillman. If you can flip him for someone you can count on then it has got to be considered. There is some pitching depth accumulating in Baltimore and losing Tillman wouldn't be the end of the world. There is still Hammel, Chen, Gonzo, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, S Johnson, Bundy, Gausman, Hunter, Wada...see what I mean? All of these pitchers have some degree of upside...some even more than Tillman. Tillman happens to have a whole of value right now, why not cash in on that value?

Think about the ALDS last year...pitching was key and Tillman didn't even throw a pitch. One more consistent offensive piece and we'd have been in Detroit.

[stomperspc]

"It's all about the pitching." This is thrown around a lot and I totally agree with it 100%, but you just can't count on a guy like Tillman. If you can flip him for someone you can count on then it has got to be considered. There is some pitching depth accumulating in Baltimore and losing Tillman wouldn't be the end of the world. There is still Hammel, Chen, Gonzo, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, S Johnson, Bundy, Gausman, Hunter, Wada...see what I mean? All of these pitchers have some degree of upside...some even more than Tillman. Tillman happens to have a whole of value right now, why not cash in on that value?

Trading Tillman really comes down to how the Orioles evaluate the rest of the rotation candidates. I get the impression that they feel pretty comfortable with Hammel, Chen, and Gonzalez as 3/5's of the Opening Day rotation. Are they comfortable that two of Arrieta, Matusz, Johnson, Britton, or Bundy (assuming none of those guys aren't also traded) can perform in the other two spots with the rest serving as adequate back up (along with Gausman potentially later in the year)? If the organization plans on signing a 4th or 5th starter type in free agency, then they would just have to be comfortable with one of those guys being able to start right away with the rest waiting in reserve. I get the impression that Duquette sees Bundy as being Major League ready really early in 2013, if not Opening Day. If that's accurate, then they might view Tillman as expendable in the right deal.

It is certainly a risk to trade Tillman. I agree that they only should if they feel that there is enough depth to the pitching staff to cover for the loss of Tillman. That's a close call and a lot depends on how the organization views Bundy's timetable as we as potentially signing a 4th or 5th starting in free agency (Saunders, for example). Of the names that are being thrown around as potential trade targets, I'd only feel really comfortable trading Tillman for Hosmer or Butler.