Orioles are one of the teams that the Twins have contacted in regards to Justin Morneau

[clapdiddy]

Britt says its a dead rumor that the Twins are not dealing him.

Sorry...comprehension problem here. Are you saying that the rumor that they are not dealing him is dead...or that they have decided NOT to deal him?

[weams]

Yea' date=' seems to work out that way often for the Yankees; though, they seem to find a way to get there. Maybe they have really better scouts than anyone else.[/quote']

No. They just spend the most money. That is a way to get there too.

[Roll Tide]

Sorry...comprehension problem here. Are you saying that the rumor that they are not dealing him is dead...or that they have decided NOT to deal him?

Brittany Ghiroli ‏@Britt_Ghiroli

@TerryJo37157734 @crazyawesometim it's not going to happen. this rumor has grown some legs, but the Twins aren't trading him.

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[EddieO'sSC]

No. They just spend the most money. That is a way to get there too.

Yea, I should have used the sarcasm icon.

[OrioleMagic79]

It's not even a real debate or argument. He's staked out a rigid ideological position based on bits and pieces of half truths, and no amount of explanation or reasoning or facts will budge him. It is like arguing with an answering machine. No matter what you say the same canned response comes back.

I have had several people send me a personal message to tell me that they agree with me whole heartedly, but they want to stay out of the argument for the most part. Just because I think WAR is not a valuable stat and that it is a contrived collection of many other stats mixed in with arbitrarily assigned values to help come to a specific number that is supposed to predict an unpredictable future event, that doesn't mean I don't know what it is or haven't used this as an opportunity to learn even more about it.

It is insulting for you to make such a statement about me (not just you but others as well). We have a core difference in how we feel about advanced statistics, that is all. In my opinion, if stats like these were really as valuable as some seem to think it is, then all the Orioles would need is to hire the best mathematician in MLB and they would win the World Series every single year.

And for the quote from BB about the playoffs being "luck" and that his job is just to make sure they get there...is there a bigger cop-out than that? The sad thing is that many people buy into it and continue to believe in this guy who has the perfect situation...he found a system in the perfect market where he can make a low-budget franchise into a semi-successful baseball program without spending boat loads of money, yet he is never held to how they actually perform in the playoffs because his employers and his disciples believe him when he says "there's nothing I can do, it's all random chance as to how you perform in the playoffs"

The funny thing to me is that if you are the type of person who puts this much faith into advanced statistics like WAR, then you are also more likely to believe that playoff success is all random and unpredictable chance that you cannot change. The real facts in my opinion are that teams like the Orioles lose in the playoffs when they cannot match up with a true #1 SP (Sabathia) on the mound or when their offense is just SO explosive that they can neutralize a true #1 SP and make him a bit more human.

A 5 games series is more often than not determined on the mound by who has the best starting rotation. If both teams have similar talent in the rotation, then other factors come into play. Of course there are a few exceptions to this, however it happens to be true more often than not. It is extremely rare that a team loses a 5 game series when they have a guy like Sabathia who is not only capable of shutting the other team down, but then actually goes out and does it twice in a short series.

If it was all random and outside of a team's control, then paying a lot for Sabathia would be a terrible investment...but anyone with any knowledge of the game knows that Sabathia is worth every penny. Not everyone has the money to sign him, but even that is skewed a bit. Just about every team could afford him, what makes the Yankees and Red Sox different is they can afford several players like that on their roster.

I am getting off on a tangent, but I believe that, especially small market teams, can use a lot of math to AID in their assembly of a good roster (like SoxHotCorner has mentioned) but that sometimes people get too wrapped up in them. I think some of that mentality can work to get you a nice foundation, but what allows you to compete is by fortifying that foundation with a guy or two like Sabathia to be a serious contender and not have to HOPE that chance plays a role, and a role that is in your favor...

Can anyone name me a "Moneyball" type team that has won the World Series? I can't think of one...maybe the Reds of 1990? But not really even that team qualifies, not to mention that team wasn't assembled using a system based on advanced stats anyway...

Getting into the playoffs isn't enough, you have to have a team that is built to win in the playoffs when you get there...otherwise you just have to wait for chance to work out and help you beat the odds...MLB is still waiting for that to happen to one of it's "Moneyball" teams...

[DrungoHazewood]

Can anyone name me a "Moneyball" type team that has won the World Series?

Pretty much every team that's advanced to the playoffs in the last 10-15 years has had a fairly heavy emphasis on statistical analysis. I think I'm safe in saying every single major league team has at least some staffing of an analytics department and uses techniques and ideas that are generations beyond Moneyball. The Orioles were one of the trailers in this area for long time, and Duquette has really brought them up to speed lately, which should tell you a lot.

[soxhotcorner14]

Pretty much every team that's advanced to the playoffs in the last 10-15 years has had a fairly heavy emphasis on statistical analysis. I think I'm safe in saying every single major league team has at least some staffing of an analytics department and uses techniques and ideas that are generations beyond Moneyball. The Orioles were one of the trailers in this area for long time, and Duquette has really brought them up to speed lately, which should tell you a lot.

To OrioleMagic79's credit he asked has any of these teams won a World Series? He mentioned that teams who have operated under the Moneyball philosophy have gotten to the playoffs, but never won a World Series. I've been looking and I can't find one that has.. still looking though.

[eb45]

To OrioleMagic79's credit he asked has any of these teams won a World Series? He mentioned that teams who have operated under the Moneyball philosophy have gotten to the playoffs, but never won a World Series. I've been looking and I can't find one that has.. still looking though.

2004/2007 Red Sox

2003 Marlins

2011 Cardinals

2010 Giants

there's five of the last ten

regardless, arguing against statistics is really missing the point, in my opinion. statistics don't replace any of the other aspects of the game, they only quantify them. they don't answer the question "why did Miguel Gonzalez pitch so well in 2012?" or "why did no other team sign Miguel Gonzalez?" or "can Miguel Gonzalez pitch this well again in 2013?". but they do tell you how well Miguel Gonzalez pitched in 2012. statistics combine everything you see with your eyes into one number. that's all they do. they don't predict the future, or explain the past, all they do is quantify it. advanced statistics are merely designed to be a more accurate way of doing the same thing. and if you have a problem with that, then I don't know what to tell you.

statistics don't always tell the whole truth, but words downright lie a lot of the time. accurate advanced statistics, used correctly, are a whole lot more accurate than anyone's eyes or words at telling you what happened. but what makes you good at baseball management is being able to figure out why it happened and whether it's likely to happen again. and while some stats can start to do this (generally raw data like FB velocity or line drive rate), there's a reason why every baseball team has operations that do all the other stuff.

as fans, though, what's easily accessible to us are stats, and in order to quantify what happened then isn't it best to use the stats that give us the most accurate idea of what happened, and then use our own intellect to try and answer the tougher questions?

[OrioleMagic79]

Pretty much every team that's advanced to the playoffs in the last 10-15 years has had a fairly heavy emphasis on statistical analysis. I think I'm safe in saying every single major league team has at least some staffing of an analytics department and uses techniques and ideas that are generations beyond Moneyball. The Orioles were one of the trailers in this area for long time, and Duquette has really brought them up to speed lately, which should tell you a lot.

I wouldn't argue at all that it is definitely a tool that should be part of the mix...but I think that it isn't a Championship theory, it is just one component that can help a team get there...it seems to me that every single team that has won the World Series did not rely solely on this type of logic and theory, but rather if it was used at all, it was to bolster their many other concepts and strategies...and most teams have a high paid free agent or two, or at least a home grown dominant #1 SP, etc.

The A's get amazing young players, and then as soon as they hit their peak and will require a big contract, they trade them away, nearly crippling their franchise and causing the process to start all over. The worst part about it, is that they have to trade the players away a year or two early to get good value for them in return, so they would have had these guys for one or two more seasons at a really reasonable price and maybe would have won a WS with them.

I understand the logic behind all of it, I just don't agree that it is always the best logic. It can be very powerful to get a team out of the cellar without spending a ton in FA, BUT I don't believe that it can be done without eventually spending in FA to keep the fire going (don't make me get the fire/kindling/logs diagram example out again )

Sorry, this leads to a necessary tangent: Overall, I think stats are great, in the thread that is now closed, CA-Oriole (sorry if I got the name slightly wrong) said to me that I didn't mention every single facet of WAR, such as defense, and how SLG and OBP were proven to help...I whole heartedly believe in SLG and OBP, but those aren't "new" or advanced stats. I like OPS as well, and that is a stat that I have become more familiar with since being here at the OH - I even started a thread asking for advice on where to learn more about advanced stats so I could understand some of their points and posts better.

This is why I find it insulting when certain posters tell me I am stubborn and unwilling to learn more about a stat and want to start old arguments that the "experienced posters" have had 1,000 times (and apparently believe they have won, as opposed to considering that they may have just chased off the newer poster because of their tone)...I do look closely at a lot of details and stats when I post, and I think that is reflected in my posts for anyone that wants to go back and read them collectively.

About halfway through this thread, I went and read a lot more about WAR than I ever have, and everything I read about it only reinforced my opinion of it that it is too contrived for me. It tries to make too bold of a statement and call it fact, by telling you a prediction about how a player will perform. That is a human process, it's called analysis, and I don't believe any stat can take information and make a consistent stat about something that people can use to blindly compare players at individual positions.

Back to my original point that WAR is too contrived, when it starts factoring in non-scientific things, like player tendencies and a bunch of other "factors", to me that is just an attempt to help defend it's value. When someone says something like MR (made up stat coming) is terrible when he plays afternoon games right after a game the night before that began at 7pm or later, that is one stat that, given enough of a consistent pattern, might be helpful...but it can only go as far as that one stat will take it. If you take one formula that adds that to 20 other stats just like it, then you are changing too many variables and things get cloudy.

If you spend too much time trying to count how many afternoon games appear the day after night games during the season, you will miss out on rained out games that get rescheduled in a way that isn't effected...you will also miss out on things like "he sat out the night before, so he is well rested today" - therefore skewing the prediction...

These points above are not directly to talk about WAR, but just an illustration of my overall stance. My long rant about whatever stat I was making earlier in this thread was just to illustrate my point. I know it was ridiculous, but sometimes exaggeration is used to illustrate a point. It isn't supposed to be taken as a literal comparison to WAR, it was highlighting what I consider the weaknesses of a stat like WAR and trying to explain why I believe it makes the stat not valuable. Sometimes this is a technique that is used in debates when it is hard to explain your entire stance in one post or rant.

It is obvious that when I get passionate about a topic that I write WAY TOO MUCH already, I can't help it. That made up Team Wins stat was so that I could illustrate through exaggeration where I am coming from. It wasn't me saying that I believe WAR is exactly that...if I tried to explain every little part about WAR, and why each part contributes to why I don't like it, I would have to publish a book on it. I know you guys don't want that...I'm lucky if any of you made it to the end of most of my posts...

[CA-ORIOLE]

To OrioleMagic79's credit he asked has any of these teams won a World Series? He mentioned that teams who have operated under the Moneyball philosophy have gotten to the playoffs, but never won a World Series. I've been looking and I can't find one that has.. still looking though.

I'd argue the concepts of moneyball are pretty much main stream at this point and have been for awhile, so basically, every team (including those who have won the world series in the past 15 years) have likely incorporated them to one degree or another, most going well beyond the scope of the original premises into new areas of analysis and economics.

[Dipper9]

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This is why I don't follow twitter...I still don't know wtf this is saying.

[clapdiddy]

This is why I don't follow twitter...I still don't know wtf this is saying.

Somehow, I see this being spoken by HAL! Reply...Retweet...Favorite...BEEP...twitter is good...BEEP.

[DrungoHazewood]

To OrioleMagic79's credit he asked has any of these teams won a World Series? He mentioned that teams who have operated under the Moneyball philosophy have gotten to the playoffs, but never won a World Series. I've been looking and I can't find one that has.. still looking though.

All of them.

[wildbillhiccup]

This may have killed the Twins as a potential trade partner. They're suddenyl not as desperate for young SPs. Looks like KC is the best fit now. Tillman for Hosmer...get it done Double D!

Phillies acquired OF Ben Revere from the Twins for RHPs Vance Worley and Trevor May.

Revere will become the Phillies' starting center fielder, and should thrive defensively in Citizens Bank Park. He'll also add a nice element of speed to the Philadelphia batting order. But it's easy to wonder if the club gave up too much for a guy who hasn't homered in 1,064 career plate appearances and who may never get on base at better than a .350 clip. Speed tends to be overrated in baseball.

[eb45]

I don't like WAR either, especially in the ways that El Gordo and JTrea like(d) to use it, but if you have any faith in statistical analysis you should recognize that at least its offensive component is statistically sound.

I find its defensive component to be fundamentally flawed (because it relies on defensive metrics), and I don't like built-in positional adjustments, but this is an argument I feel like Drungo and I have had several times so I'm not going to go into it again here.

The offensive component, though, is based on wOBA which is as perfect a metric as exists in baseball, so if you want to find fault with WAR you'd be best served steering your arguments away from that.