Is Bundy this special?

[andrewrickli]

Upton has 5 seasons with Arizona. He's been worth more than 2.1 WAR twice. This ridiculous idea has been discussed enough for all reasonable people to know that trading Bundy for Upton is a terrible move.

Why? How do you know that Bundy will not be another Lowen or McDonald?

[andrewrickli]

The bottom line is this:

If we knew Bundy was going to be a sure fire ace, yeah, you OBVIOUSLY don't trade him at all. According to Stotle, Gausman is more polished and IMO might hold up better than Bundy over his career. Gausman has a larger frame to work with, compared to Bundy's 6 ft frame.

[andrewrickli]

Also, not to be a debbie downer, but the "Bundy is the best pitching prospect in baseball" argument is not a good one. 1) it's highly debatable that's even true, and 2) if he happens to be on the top of someone's list, there's essentially no separation between him and the likes of Cole/Wheeler/Walker/Fernandez. He's a very valuable young arm, but he is not Strasburg. And a whole lot of people here are talking about him as if he's Strasburg.

This a million times over. The closest comp to MLB is probably AA. We have heard it before that if you can play at AA, you can play in the MLB. At AA, Bundy averaged about .5 walks every inning.

[Ohfan67]

What somebody should do is look back at the top pitching prospects in baseball for every year for the last 15-20 years and figure out what the range of outcomes has been.

Well, let me try that:

2012: Matt Moore (#2 overall)

2011: Julio Teheran (#5)

2010: Stephen Strasburg (#2)

2009: David Price (#2)

2008: Joba Chamberlain (#3)

2007: Daisuke Matsuzaka (#1)

2006: Francisco Liriano (#6)

2005: Felix Hernandez (#2)

2004: Edwin Jackson (#4)

2003: Jesse Foppert (#5)

2002: Josh Beckett (#1)

2001: Josh Beckett (#3)

2000: Rick Ankiel (#1)

1999: Rick Ankiel (#2)

1998: Kerry Wood (#4)

1997: Kerry Wood (#3)

1996: Paul Wilson (#2)

1995: Armando Benitez (#11)

1994: James Baldwin (#8)

1993: Brien Taylor (#2)

1992: Brien Taylor (#1)

1991: Todd Van Poppel (#1)

1990: Steve Avery (#1)

I guess that's far enough. What I see on this list are a few total busts, a few guys who were great at first and then succumbed to injury, a few guys who become good but not great pitchers, and then a few aces. Based on the reports on Bundy and his performance in 2012, he is probably more similar to Josh Beckett, David Price, and Felix Hernandez than anyone else.

Everything is a risk, but you've got to go with what your eyes tell you and what your scouts tell you. And I think what they are saying now is that Bundy is a future ace, the kind of pitcher that can bring you a championship. Upton is a very good young player, but I don't think he can have that large an impact on the game as a corner outfielder.

Nice post.

I think there are a couple of "formal" studies available on line that do this, but I can't remember links. I think Frobby's 50% - 70% estimate is not bad, but 70% might be a little high.

In general, I think trading prospects for young talent is a very good idea even if you have to sign them to expensive deals to gain control for a while. Paying for a young, proven player is better than paying tons of money for free agents that don't come close to earning their contracts. And paying would include money plus prospects. Just think about the O's...how many O's prospects have met expectations in the last ten years? 15 years? Heck, even Wieters hasn't met offensive expectations. Has ANY Oriole prospect met expectations in the last ten years?

So if I was in a front office, I would advocate trading prospects for young, proven players that you can still control and then signing those players to extend control. I think that's a strategy that minimizes risk while focusing dollars on players that are more likely to "earn" their contracts.

So, I think I would put aside being an Oriole fan, do some hard math, and think real, real hard about trading Bundy. Upton might not be the player depending on the math, but I would certainly dangle Bundy to get a more proven young player.

[andrewrickli]

Nice post.

I think there are a couple of "formal" studies available on line that do this, but I can't remember links. I think Frobby's 50% - 70% estimate is not bad, but 70% might be a little high.

In general, I think trading prospects for young talent is a very good idea even if you have to sign them to expensive deals to gain control for a while. Paying for a young, proven player is better than paying tons of money for free agents that don't come close to earning their contracts. And paying would include money plus prospects. Just think about the O's...how many O's prospects have met expectations in the last ten years? 15 years? Heck, even Wieters hasn't met offensive expectations. Has ANY Oriole prospect met expectations in the last ten years?

So if I was in a front office, I would advocate trading prospects for young, proven players that you can still control and then signing those players to extend control. I think that's a strategy that minimizes risk while focusing dollars on players that are more likely to "earn" their contracts.

So, I think I would put aside being an Oriole fan, do some hard math, and think real, real hard about trading Bundy. Upton might not be the player depending on the math, but I would certainly dangle Bundy to get a more proven young player.

Roberts, and Markakis. Maybe you could argue JJ. Jury is still out on Machado.

As to the percentage. 50 is wayyy too high. What math do you have that backs up this assessment that Bundy has a 50% chance of becoming a sure fire ace? Out of all the top prospects in the last decade that were labeled as being a true ace, how many have lived up to that? Not a majority, that's for sure.

Also, say Bundy does become a #2-3, at least he would be in a different league, it's not like I'm proposing this idea with the Yankees.

[Stotle]

Upton has 5 seasons with Arizona. He's been worth more than 2.1 WAR twice. This ridiculous idea has been discussed enough for all reasonable people to know that trading Bundy for Upton is a terrible move.

For public valuations, Fangraphs has him at 4.8, 3.0, 6.4, and 2.5 over the last four years. He turns 26 in August.

[Ohfan67]

Roberts, and Markakis. Maybe you could argue JJ. Jury is still out on Machado.

As to the percentage. 50 is wayyy too high. What math do you have that backs up this assessment that Bundy has a 50% chance of becoming a sure fire ace? Out of all the top prospects in the last decade that were labeled as being a true ace, how many have lived up to that? Not a majority, that's for sure.

Also, say Bundy does become a #2-3, at least he would be in a different league, it's not like I'm proposing this idea with the Yankees.

You are probably correct that 50% is way too high. Although it's hard to do the calculation for where Bundy is right now...he pitched in the majors at what, 19? So it's hard to figure out the denominator for Bundy.

I think Roberts definitely exceeded his projections and probably by a big shot. Markakis definitely met and probably also exceeded his expectations, although I don't remember much speculation about him as a minor leaguer. The list of prospects who didn't pan out, didn't even come close to panning out, is so long it's hard to remember. There are, however, a few other players that probably met expectations that we have forgotten or want to forget about (e.g., Ponson). Anyway, you are correct that Bundy still has a long way to go. And that's definitely worth thinking hard about when we're talking trades.

[SouthernBird]

How to win Baseball games 101...Pitching, Pitching, and more Pitching.

[andrewrickli]

For public valuations, Fangraphs has him at 4.8, 3.0, 6.4, and 2.5 over the last four years. He turns 26 in August.

Adam Jones, we all can agree had a breakout year in 2012. Even then he was only worth 3.4 WAR.

Justin Upton, as a comparison in his "breakout year" had a WAR of 5.7 in 2011 or you could use 2009 and even then he had a WAR of 3.9.

[andrewrickli]

To get proven young talent, you usually have to give proven talent. In this case with Bundy we can get proven talent for POTENTIAL talent, which is nice.

You KNOW that Upton can steal 20 bases, get on base, hit at least 20 HR, and hit around .280, with the potential to be a perineal .900 OPS type guy.

All we know about Bundy is that he pitched to a 3.24 ERA in AA, and had about .5 walks per inning. He hasn't proven ANYTHING at the ML level.

Now, would I deal Bundy for a DH in Butler? NO!

But for a potential MVP type player, with speed, power, on base capabilities, great defense, and a guy that can fill a revolving door for us? Absolutely.

[waroriole]

For public valuations, Fangraphs has him at 4.8, 3.0, 6.4, and 2.5 over the last four years. He turns 26 in August.

Well, the OP is constructing the argument in a zealous manner. I thought I'd do the same.

Regardless, Upton has had a very inconsistent career. He's only under contract for 3 more years and will be paid a lot. Bundy is the #1 prospect in baseball.

[andrewrickli]

Well, the OP is constructing the argument in a zealous manner. I thought I'd do the same.

Regardless, Upton has had a very inconsistent career. He's only under contract for 3 more years and will be paid a lot. Bundy is the #1 prospect in baseball.

In no way did I construct a zealous argument. And for the record, Bundy WON'T be number one. Profar will be. Mark it.

[Stotle]

Well, the OP is constructing the argument in a zealous manner. I thought I'd do the same.

Regardless, Upton has had a very inconsistent career. He's only under contract for 3 more years and will be paid a lot. Bundy is the #1 prospect in baseball.

Your mind is made up, so I won't belabor the point. But little you said in this post is wholly accurate.

[waroriole]

Your mind is made up, so I won't belabor the point. But little you said in this post is wholly accurate.

Everything I said was a fact, except that Upton has been inconsistent. Looking at his numbers, it's pretty easy to conclude that he's up and down.

[andrewrickli]

Remember when Ankiel was the number one prospect? Look what happened.

Andy Marte?

Ruben Mateo?

Fernando Tatis?

Travis Lee?

Jose Cruz, Jr.?

Gordon Beckham?

Lastings Millage?

All guys who were can't miss. I sure missed there superstar seasons...wait, they never had them.