Bill James Projections...would you be happy?

[VeveJones007]

The combined records of the pitchers he lists is 70-76. He thinks we regress back to a sub .500 team?

I don't see it.

I don't see how that's a sub-.500 team with those offensive and pitching projections. At a glance, that team would hit enough and get enough pitching to win 80-90 games.

[scOtt]

Betemit 260/328/433 15/60/51

Davis 286/340/532 31/92/79

Hardy 254/306/422 22/71/76

Hoes 286/363/379 6/63/77

Jones 281/329/478 27/83/90

Manny 256/315/419 15/71/68

Kaks 297/369/457 16/78/79

Nate 237/326/400 14/46/64 (14 sb)

Nolan 263/340/456 17/54/51

Roberts 268/345/397 4/23/33 (9 sb)

Wieters 262/341/448 22/81/68

Ip/hits/k

Arrieta 2-2 4.25 36/35/30

Ayala 4-4 3.95 73/78/50

Britton 5-6 4.08 97/98/72

Chen 10-11 3.92 193/186/154

Gonzo 10-9 3.67 174/161/138

Hammel 8-10 4.30 161/169/122

Hunter 2-3 4.50 50/56/29

Johnson 4-3 3.34 70/69/47 43 saves

S. Johnson 2-3 4.40 43/41/39

Matusz 3-5 4.70 69/74/55 (8 starts)

O'Day 5-3 2.71 73/61/66

Patton 2-2 4.05 40/42/27

Strop 4-3 3.63 62/56/63

Tillman 9-12 4.31 188/191/155

I'm a little slow and it is late on a Saturday night.... What's the second slash line?

EDIT: And I have to say... if that first number is home runs BJ is WAY OFF on Reimold! :rolleyestf: He either gets 3 or 30! None of this middle ground crap.

[Loophole]

I'm a little slow and it is late on a Saturday night.... What's the second slash line?

EDIT: And I have to say... if that first number is home runs BJ is WAY OFF on Reimold! :rolleyestf: He either gets 3 or 30! None of this middle ground crap.

With ~50 runs/RBI it looks like BJ's projecting maybe half or 2/3 a season for Nolan.

[scOtt]

With ~50 runs/RBI it looks like BJ's projecting maybe half or 2/3 a season for Nolan.

First, so it's HR/RBI/Runs?

And I see your and James' point on 2/3 season. I just don't see him breaking down. I mean... I can see where Nolan might never make it out of ST and onto a Major League diamond again. Or I can see him making the team and lasting ALL year, into the playoffs even. I just can't see him developing ANOTHER random injury.

EDIT: You flip a coin. 5 Heads in a row. The next flip... is still a random flip. Could be heads OR tails. I'm saying a random flip of the coin on Reimold's injury luck is BOUND TO BE better than his history.

[Loophole]

First, so it's HR/RBI/Runs?

And I see your and James' point on 2/3 season. I just don't see him breaking down. I mean... I can see where Nolan might never make it out of ST and onto a Major League diamond again. Or I can see him making the team and lasting ALL year, into the playoffs even. I just can't see him developing ANOTHER random injury.

EDIT: You flip a coin. 5 Heads in a row. The next flip... is still a random flip. Could be heads OR tails. I'm saying a random flip of the coin on Reimold's injury luck is BOUND TO BE better than his history.

Thing is with projections, no one is ever going to project a near-nothing season unless the player just got out of surgery and isn't expected until September. And if a player has a recent history with injury, like the past three years with Nolan, no analyst in their right mind would project a 150+ game season. Middle ground is the only reasonable choice.

[Norfolk orioles]

ElGordo's projections :

Betemit 260/328/433 15/60/51270/328 490 15/65/60

Davis 286/340/532 31/92/79 270/ 330/490 28/84/75

Hardy 254/306/422 22/71/76 265/320/430/ 24/71/76

Hoes 286/363/379 6/63/77 same

Jones 281/329/478 27/83/90 290/340/478 28/83/90

Manny 256/315/419 15/71/68 .276/330/.435 21/80/90

Kaks 297/369/457 16/78/79 298/380/460 23/90/80

Nate 237/326/400 14/46/64 (14 sb) 260/335/430 20/60/75/25 SB

Nolan 263/340/456 17/54/51 280/340/476 26/70/60

Roberts 268/345/397 4/23/33 (9 sb) 260/335/390/ 6/50/65/15 SB

Wieters 262/341/448 22/81/68 262/341/456 26/90/68

Ip/hits/k

Arrieta 2-2 4.25 36/35/30 same

Ayala 4-4 3.95 73/78/50 same

Britton 5-6 4.08 97/98/72 8-3/4.08/130/140120\/

Chen 10-11 3.92 193/186/154 12-9/ 3.90/193/186/ 165

Gonzo 10-9 3.67 174/161/138 13-9/3.67/190/180/150

Hammel 8-10 4.30 161/169/122 16-10/3.70/ 190/195/170

Hunter 2-3 4.50 50/56/29 same

Johnson 4-3 3.34 70/69/47 43 saves same

S. Johnson 2-3 4.40 43/41/39 4-3/ 4.25/70/ 60/55

Matusz 3-5 4.70 69/74/55 (8 starts) 5-3/3.90/80/87/71

O'Day 5-3 2.71 73/61/66 same

Patton 2-2 4.05 40/42/27 same

Strop 4-3 3.63 62/56/63 same

Tillman 9-12 4.31 188/191/155 14-9/3.90/190/198/168 :2yay-thumb:

Sounds great......but unlikely. Don't see McClouth getting near those numbers you suggested.

Manny probably struggles too once the league adjusts to him, at least for a little while. Don't see the starting pitching being quite as good as you predicted either.

Lets all hope I'm wrong and you are right!

[LayzieDES]

Betemit 260/328/433 15/60/51

Davis 286/340/532 31/92/79

Hardy 254/306/422 22/71/76

Hoes 286/363/379 6/63/77

Jones 281/329/478 27/83/90

Manny 256/315/419 15/71/68

Kaks 297/369/457 16/78/79

Nate 237/326/400 14/46/64 (14 sb)

Nolan 263/340/456 17/54/51

Roberts 268/345/397 4/23/33 (9 sb)

Wieters 262/341/448 22/81/68

Ip/hits/k

Arrieta 2-2 4.25 36/35/30

Ayala 4-4 3.95 73/78/50

Britton 5-6 4.08 97/98/72

Chen 10-11 3.92 193/186/154

Gonzo 10-9 3.67 174/161/138

Hammel 8-10 4.30 161/169/122

Hunter 2-3 4.50 50/56/29

Johnson 4-3 3.34 70/69/47 43 saves

S. Johnson 2-3 4.40 43/41/39

Matusz 3-5 4.70 69/74/55 (8 starts)

O'Day 5-3 2.71 73/61/66

Patton 2-2 4.05 40/42/27

Strop 4-3 3.63 62/56/63

Tillman 9-12 4.31 188/191/155

It would seem from those predictions, BJ has them trending towards driving in more batters & scoring more runs than last year, but he thinks the starting pitching isn't going to improve at all on wins. I guess Reynolds defense is that big of a factor, because with that offense & basically same infield as the end of the year, it still looks like an 85+ win team to me.

It'd be interesting for someone to compare his 2012 predictions to the actual results.

[DrungoHazewood]

Bill James is one of my personal hero's but his projections seem like they are done with his Brock2 system circa 1982 on an Excel spreadsheet. I don't take them seriously at all.

[Can_of_corn]

Bill James is one of my personal hero's but his projections seem like they are done with his Brock2 system circa 1982 on an Excel spreadsheet. I don't take them seriously at all.

Have you been watching him on MLB's Top Ten Right Now series? Not real impressive.

[wildbillhiccup]

Sounds great......but unlikely. Don't see McClouth getting near those numbers you suggested.

Manny probably struggles too once the league adjusts to him, at least for a little while. Don't see the starting pitching being quite as good as you predicted either.

Lets all hope I'm wrong and you are right!

Completely agree. Hope you're right, but your amended predictions seem to be more overly optimistic than realistic. I guess time will tell...

[Frobby]

ElGordo's projections :

Betemit 260/328/433 15/60/51270/328 490 15/65/60

Davis 286/340/532 31/92/79 270/ 330/490 28/84/75

Hardy 254/306/422 22/71/76 265/320/430/ 24/71/76

Hoes 286/363/379 6/63/77 same

Jones 281/329/478 27/83/90 290/340/478 28/83/90

Manny 256/315/419 15/71/68 .276/330/.435 21/80/90

Kaks 297/369/457 16/78/79 298/380/460 23/90/80

Nate 237/326/400 14/46/64 (14 sb) 260/335/430 20/60/75/25 SB

Nolan 263/340/456 17/54/51 280/340/476 26/70/60

Roberts 268/345/397 4/23/33 (9 sb) 260/335/390/ 6/50/65/15 SB

Wieters 262/341/448 22/81/68 262/341/456 26/90/68

I'm going to put your offensive projections on my spreadsheet. They're very optimistic so I hope you're right. But I still need your OPS projections for some minor players like Avery, Robinson, Pearce, Jackson, Valencia.

[jtschrei]

I think BJ's offensive predictions are spot on and I would be fine with them... Reimold excepted.

The success of the 2013 depends on pitching. We all know that. I hope we are better than BJ's predictions.

[HokieOs]

Betemit 260/328/433 15/60/51

Davis 286/340/532 31/92/79

Hardy 254/306/422 22/71/76

Hoes 286/363/379 6/63/77

Jones 281/329/478 27/83/90

Manny 256/315/419 15/71/68

Kaks 297/369/457 16/78/79

Nate 237/326/400 14/46/64 (14 sb)

Nolan 263/340/456 17/54/51

Roberts 268/345/397 4/23/33 (9 sb)

Wieters 262/341/448 22/81/68

Ip/hits/k

Arrieta 2-2 4.25 36/35/30

Ayala 4-4 3.95 73/78/50

Britton 5-6 4.08 97/98/72

Chen 10-11 3.92 193/186/154

Gonzo 10-9 3.67 174/161/138

Hammel 8-10 4.30 161/169/122

Hunter 2-3 4.50 50/56/29

Johnson 4-3 3.34 70/69/47 43 saves

S. Johnson 2-3 4.40 43/41/39

Matusz 3-5 4.70 69/74/55 (8 starts)

O'Day 5-3 2.71 73/61/66

Patton 2-2 4.05 40/42/27

Strop 4-3 3.63 62/56/63

Tillman 9-12 4.31 188/191/155

Umm no, I would NOT be happy with 70 wins.

[SrMeowMeow]

Umm no, I would NOT be happy with 70 wins.

I'd also be pretty unhappy with a 146-game season.

[OFFNY]

No starting pitcher with a winning record? Pretty poor projection. Also seems like the 5th starter role will be up for grabs every month or so.

He had Gonzo Part II at 10-9.