Would you put Machado in the category of Harper/Trout?

[Palmoripken]

Close to it. It's awesome to even be able to consider this talking about a young Orioles player.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've actually pondered this myself the past few days. I don't think he's there quite yet just because of what those 2 have already accomplished at this level. But he's made himself part of the conversation.

Let's see how he finishes the year. He's basically had 1 hot month offensively.

Yes, this. I'm excited. But not out of control just yet.

[WEAVERMAN]

Are you thinking of Ken Rosenthal? There's a thread discussing his article here: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/132478-Rosenthal-Article-Machado-20-excelling-as-young-star

If Manny finishes the 2013 the way he started it, then there is no question is belongs in the category of Harper/Trout. He may even be in his own category.

You nailed it Trace.

[Stotle]

What's your grade on Manny in the same categories? And Trout for that matter.

Machado

6+ arm, 6 hit, 6/6+ defense (3b), 5+/6 power, 4+/5 speed

Trout

8 speed, 6+ hit, 6/6+ defense, 5+/6 power, 5 arm

[orioles942]

2 to 3 wins? Or more? seems a little steep, no?

No...he probably saves 1 run every 5-7 games at least.

[Stotle]

No...he probably saves 1 run every 5-7 games at least.

Based upon what?

[AlbionHero]

Certainly. He's in the same age range and is actually outdoing both of them in WAR this year. He's legit.

Based upon what?

IIRC he's saved 6 runs so far this year, tops among 3rd basemen.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

[DrungoHazewood]

2 to 3 wins? Or more? seems a little steep, no?

Probably. Considering an otherworldly UZR/TZ/etc is +30. Belanger might be the best defender ever at short, and he was over 30 once, between 20-30 six other times. Brooks was over 30 in '67-68, 20-30 a couple other times. I'd consider that (peak of +3.0 to 3.5 wins) to be almost a theoretical ceiling at third.

Machado

6+ arm, 6 hit, 6/6+ defense (3b), 5+/6 power, 4+/5 speed

Trout

8 speed, 6+ hit, 6/6+ defense, 5+/6 power, 5 arm

Assuming this is all on the 2-8 scale?

[Stotle]

Probably. Considering an otherworldly UZR/TZ/etc is +30. Belanger might be the best defender ever at short, and he was over 30 once, between 20-30 six other times. Brooks was over 30 in '67-68, 20-30 a couple other times. I'd consider that (peak of +3.0 to 3.5 wins) to be almost a theoretical ceiling at third.

thanks

Assuming this is all on the 2-8 scale?

yessir

[Stotle]

Certainly. He's in the same age range and is actually outdoing both of them in WAR this year. He's legit.

IIRC he's saved 6 runs so far this year, tops among 3rd basemen.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

But that's not how that stat works, right? I mean, that particular measure of defensive value can't simply be averaged out over a 162 game period.

[orioles942]

Based upon what?

Based on common sense, he saves about a run per week. He gets to balls others dont, takes away bunts, ALLOWS HARDY MORE RANGE, turns the 5-4-3 DP very fast and throws out fast runners from 3rd. Thier is a reason since he is in the lineup and at 3rd the O's have the best record in baseball. It's like 2 1/2 players on the right side of the diamond. Plus his throws, the long throw is on the money, and no scoop jobs for Davis that turn into hits or a runner on 2nd. He makes the regular play all the time and the great play often.

[DrungoHazewood]

Certainly. He's in the same age range and is actually outdoing both of them in WAR this year. He's legit.

IIRC he's saved 8 runs so far this year, tops among 3rd basemen. Its a sabermetric stat.

Ok, yes, he's +8 in UZR or something so far. But that's not at all the same as saying he's definitely 8 runs above average and will continue to be 8 runs above average per 33 games. It's more of a probablistic thing, and the odds are very good that he's not really better over then long run than Brooks Robinson at his peak.

Look, Manny is good and might end up being great. But I'd caution against extrapolating out historic 10-win seasons based mainly on six weeks of UZR.

[DrungoHazewood]

Based on common sense, he saves about a run per week. He gets to balls others dont, takes away bunts, ALLOWS HARDY MORE RANGE, turns the 5-4-3 DP very fast and throws out fast runners from 3rd. Thier is a reason since he is in the lineup and at 3rd the O's have the best record in baseball. It's like 2 1/2 players on the right side of the diamond. Plus his throws, the long throw is on the money, and no scoop jobs for Davis that turn into hits or a runner on 2nd. He makes the regular play all the time and the great play often.

But we have people keep track of defensive metrics so that we don't have to wildly guess the value of his contributions. Common sense is good at some things, but exactly quantifying things that accumulate over long stretches of time ain't its strong suit.

I've heard countless times someone say "Ozzie or Brooks obviously saved a run a game, it's just common sense if you've watched them." Well... no.

[AlbionHero]

Ok, yes, he's +8 in UZR or something so far. But that's not at all the same as saying he's definitely 8 runs above average and will continue to be 8 runs above average per 33 games. It's more of a probablistic thing, and the odds are very good that he's not really better over then long run than Brooks Robinson at his peak.

Look, Manny is good and might end up being great. But I'd caution against extrapolating out historic 10-win seasons based mainly on six weeks of UZR.

I don't doubt he may regress, I was just pointing out that he has saved quite a few runs so far this season. I still expect he'll save at least 15-20 over the year though.

[Stotle]

So if Machado ends up with better offensive and defensive numbers overall than Trout this year, you wouldn't put him in Trout's class based simply on scout grades?

Manny's also clearly faster than originally thought.

That requires a whole lot of further information. I assume you don't believe a single season stat line should be the determinant as to which of two players is the superior talent.