Manny Machado in 2014

[DrungoHazewood]

Manny Machado in 2014???

Manny?s OPS+ is now 100 (replacement level), after posting a 98 in 2012.

Worse he has posted a .240/.267/.373/.640 since Jul 2nd.

Obviously he has worn down and/or the league has made adjustments.

We need Manny to be an all star cornerstone of the franchise and yet his OPS of .750 (and sinking rapidly) does not really stack up well at 3B, where he is only 9th in the majors.

So is he a .260/.300/.400 JJ Hardy type hitter that needs to be moved to SS to be considered near the top of his position or will he have a more even offensive season and hit .290+

It really scares me that his walk rate is so low? and he seems to be trying to pull everything.

Right now batting him second is even worse than JJ Hardy was last year.

At any rate I think the O?s will hold off on any extension for at least another year.

This is exactly why I said giving him a 10 year contract and breaking the bank would be absurd. Just completely moronic. Let's find out if he can actually hit.

Give teams 162 games worth of slider chasing and no plate discipline to analyze on video.

Then see what happens in 2014 and while were at it let's see what happens in 2015.

He couldn't be farther away from being a proven offensive player. That's not his fault, but his lack of service time really.

You guys are hilarious. The Orioles have a freshman putting up a 7-win season on the varsity and you've convinced yourselves that his career is basically over. webbrick, I understand that, he's constantly pouring over stuff to try to find signs of the apocalypse. That's his thing. But calmunderfire... you seem to just have some fundamental misunderstandings.

Here's Manny's peer group (regular players but average hitters at 20):

[TABLE]

<TBODY>[TR]

[TH]Rk

[/TH]

[TH]Player

[/TH]

[TH]PA

[/TH]

[TH]OPS+

[/TH]

[TH]From

[/TH]

[TH]To

[/TH]

[TH]Age

[/TH]

[TH]G

[/TH]

[TH]AB

[/TH]

[TH]R

[/TH]

[TH]H

[/TH]

[TH]2B

[/TH]

[TH]3B

[/TH]

[TH]HR

[/TH]

[TH]RBI

[/TH]

[TH]BB

[/TH]

[TH]IBB

[/TH]

[TH]SO

[/TH]

[TH]HBP

[/TH]

[TH]SH

[/TH]

[TH]SF

[/TH]

[TH]GDP

[/TH]

[TH]SB

[/TH]

[TH]CS

[/TH]

[TH]BA

[/TH]

[TH]OBP

[/TH]

[TH]SLG

[/TH]

[TH]OPS

[/TH]

[TH]Pos

[/TH]

[TH]Tm

[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]Freddie Lindstrom

[/TD]

[TD]1085

[/TD]

[TD]101

[/TD]

[TD]1924

[/TD]

[TD]1926

[/TD]

[TD]18-20

[/TD]

[TD]297

[/TD]

[TD]978

[/TD]

[TD]152

[/TD]

[TD]286

[/TD]

[TD]37

[/TD]

[TD]22

[/TD]

[TD]13

[/TD]

[TD]113

[/TD]

[TD]67

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]51

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]35

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]19

[/TD]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD].292

[/TD]

[TD].341

[/TD]

[TD].415

[/TD]

[TD].756

[/TD]

[TD]*5/H469

[/TD]

[TD]NYG

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]Cesar Cedeno

[/TD]

[TD]1026

[/TD]

[TD]103

[/TD]

[TD]1970

[/TD]

[TD]1971

[/TD]

[TD]19-20

[/TD]

[TD]251

[/TD]

[TD]966

[/TD]

[TD]131

[/TD]

[TD]271

[/TD]

[TD]61

[/TD]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD]17

[/TD]

[TD]123

[/TD]

[TD]40

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]159

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]17

[/TD]

[TD]37

[/TD]

[TD]13

[/TD]

[TD].281

[/TD]

[TD].310

[/TD]

[TD].417

[/TD]

[TD].727

[/TD]

[TD]*8/97H3

[/TD]

[TD]HOU

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]Travis Jackson

[/TD]

[TD]992

[/TD]

[TD]95

[/TD]

[TD]1922

[/TD]

[TD]1924

[/TD]

[TD]18-20

[/TD]

[TD]250

[/TD]

[TD]931

[/TD]

[TD]127

[/TD]

[TD]270

[/TD]

[TD]38

[/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]113

[/TD]

[TD]43

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]98

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]18

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD].290

[/TD]

[TD].321

[/TD]

[TD].411

[/TD]

[TD].733

[/TD]

[TD]*6/5H4

[/TD]

[TD]NYG

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]Manny Machado

[/TD]

[TD]892

[/TD]

[TD]100

[/TD]

[TD]2012

[/TD]

[TD]2013

[/TD]

[TD]19-20

[/TD]

[TD]203

[/TD]

[TD]841

[/TD]

[TD]110

[/TD]

[TD]235

[/TD]

[TD]59

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]21

[/TD]

[TD]97

[/TD]

[TD]36

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]147

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]20

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD].279

[/TD]

[TD].308

[/TD]

[TD].439

[/TD]

[TD].747

[/TD]

[TD]*5

[/TD]

[TD]BAL

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]Johnny Bench

[/TD]

[TD]700

[/TD]

[TD]104

[/TD]

[TD]1967

[/TD]

[TD]1968

[/TD]

[TD]19-20

[/TD]

[TD]180

[/TD]

[TD]650

[/TD]

[TD]74

[/TD]

[TD]169

[/TD]

[TD]43

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]88

[/TD]

[TD]36

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]115

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]18

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD].260

[/TD]

[TD].297

[/TD]

[TD].409

[/TD]

[TD].706

[/TD]

[TD]*2/H

[/TD]

[TD]CIN

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]Whitey Witt

[/TD]

[TD]626

[/TD]

[TD]101

[/TD]

[TD]1916

[/TD]

[TD]1916

[/TD]

[TD]20-20

[/TD]

[TD]143

[/TD]

[TD]563

[/TD]

[TD]64

[/TD]

[TD]138

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]36

[/TD]

[TD]55

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]71

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]19

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].245

[/TD]

[TD].315

[/TD]

[TD].337

[/TD]

[TD].652

[/TD]

[TD]*6

[/TD]

[TD]PHA

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]Roberto Alomar

[/TD]

[TD]611

[/TD]

[TD]105

[/TD]

[TD]1988

[/TD]

[TD]1988

[/TD]

[TD]20-20

[/TD]

[TD]143

[/TD]

[TD]545

[/TD]

[TD]84

[/TD]

[TD]145

[/TD]

[TD]24

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]41

[/TD]

[TD]47

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]83

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]24

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD].266

[/TD]

[TD].328

[/TD]

[TD].382

[/TD]

[TD].709

[/TD]

[TD]*4/H

[/TD]

[TD]SDP

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]Rick Manning

[/TD]

[TD]535

[/TD]

[TD]101

[/TD]

[TD]1975

[/TD]

[TD]1975

[/TD]

[TD]20-20

[/TD]

[TD]120

[/TD]

[TD]480

[/TD]

[TD]69

[/TD]

[TD]137

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]35

[/TD]

[TD]44

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]62

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]19

[/TD]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD].285

[/TD]

[TD].347

[/TD]

[TD].358

[/TD]

[TD].705

[/TD]

[TD]/*897HD

[/TD]

[TD]CLE

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]Hank Aaron

[/TD]

[TD]509

[/TD]

[TD]104

[/TD]

[TD]1954

[/TD]

[TD]1954

[/TD]

[TD]20-20

[/TD]

[TD]122

[/TD]

[TD]468

[/TD]

[TD]58

[/TD]

[TD]131

[/TD]

[TD]27

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]13

[/TD]

[TD]69

[/TD]

[TD]28

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]39

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]13

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD].280

[/TD]

[TD].322

[/TD]

[TD].447

[/TD]

[TD].769

[/TD]

[TD]*7/9H

[/TD]

[TD]MLN

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD]Starlin Castro

[/TD]

[TD]506

[/TD]

[TD]100

[/TD]

[TD]2010

[/TD]

[TD]2010

[/TD]

[TD]20-20

[/TD]

[TD]125

[/TD]

[TD]463

[/TD]

[TD]53

[/TD]

[TD]139

[/TD]

[TD]31

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]41

[/TD]

[TD]29

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]71

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]14

[/TD]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD].300

[/TD]

[TD].347

[/TD]

[TD].408

[/TD]

[TD].755

[/TD]

[TD]*6/H

[/TD]

[TD]CHC

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD]Buddy Bell

[/TD]

[TD]505

[/TD]

[TD]97

[/TD]

[TD]1972

[/TD]

[TD]1972

[/TD]

[TD]20-20

[/TD]

[TD]132

[/TD]

[TD]466

[/TD]

[TD]49

[/TD]

[TD]119

[/TD]

[TD]21

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]36

[/TD]

[TD]34

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]29

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD].255

[/TD]

[TD].310

[/TD]

[TD].363

[/TD]

[TD].672

[/TD]

[TD]/985H

[/TD]

[TD]CLE

[/TD]

[/TR]

</TBODY>[/TABLE]

Almost 50% HOFers, 10 of the 11 were long-term major league regulars (giving Castro the benefit of the doubt). Whitey Witt clearly the worst of the bunch, and he had 5000 MLB PAs.

And Johnny Bench (arugably Alomar) is the only guy on the list who was in Manny's zip code on defense.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Good question. That would be the person with enough PA to qualify for the batting title, with the lowest OBP. Somehow I don't think .313 OBP is the lowest.

Manny is leading the AL in outs made, with 498. The next highest is 470. Starlin Castro has made 505 outs in the NL, so Manny's not leading the majors.

Last year, JJ Hardy led the majors with 535.

[DrungoHazewood]

Who leads the AL in outs made by a mile? You see any 1 stat can be thrown out there.

If your point is to obfuscate you're doing a wonderful job.

[calmunderfire]

Good question. That would be the person with enough PA to qualify for the batting title, with the lowest OBP. Somehow I don't think .313 OBP is the lowest.

Machado has made more outs than anyone in the American League.

[Moose Milligan]

Machado has made more outs than anyone in the American League.

Ok, so who would you trade Manny for right now? Harper and Trout aside.

[Can_of_corn]

Ok, so who would you trade Manny for right now? Harper and Trout aside.

I'm guessing it is someone that Jim Palmer thinks can hit a slider.

[El Gordo]

Machado has made more outs than anyone in the American League.

I go with OBP. The number of outs is meaningless without the context of PA. Manny has more hits and more 2BH in the same number of PA, but you choose to ignore that because it doesn't suit you demented agenda.

[calmunderfire]

Ok, so who would you trade Manny for right now? Harper and Trout aside.

You are too reactionary. Some guy pointed at Machado's ht totals this year to which I said you can make stats say what you want. As an example I informed him of Machado's relentless habit of making outs.

[calmunderfire]

I go with OBP. The number of outs is meaningless without the context of PA. Manny has more hits and more 2BH in the same number of PA, but you choose to ignore that because it doesn't suit you demented agenda.

So know counting stats are useless? We can use rate and counting stats.

[Barnaby Graves]

He has a .152 ISO now and a .183 ISO in more limited time last year. I expect an offseason of squats, deadlifts, and eating meat with a side of meat, as lithe young players tend to do. He should put on some muscle and I think there will be more power than this year. Call it a .180 ISO. Doubles converted to homers and all that.

BB% this year is 3.9%. I think it creeps up to 5% or so. Maybe more depending on how well his power develops and/or how terrified pitchers become of him.

I think the BABIP will determine more of the average and all that so as far as his batted balls and xBABIP, I think, or hope, an offseason will mature him a little more at the plate, since he has made some bad contact at times this year. 20.4 LD% I would like to see come up a bit. Less infield fly balls (15.8%) should come with more power.

Defense, who knows really. If he gets more muscled he could lose range, it happens. But those instincts and catlike reflexes should still be there.

I think it will be a fun 2014 for him unless he gets hurt like any other player.

[Aristotelian]

He is #8 in MLB at 6.5 WAR. He is the top defensive 3B in the league and brings at least league average offense. Overall that makes him one of the elite players in the game -- in his first season. I would not pay $200 million for him, but I would not hesitate to extend him for reasonable money.

[DrungoHazewood]

Machado has made more outs than anyone in the American League.

He's 2nd in the majors in PAs. Dustin Pedroia has made over 450 outs - are the Red Sox idiots for letting him do that?

You know, I just noticed a weird coincidence... everyone in the top 30 in outs has played at least 140 games. Clearly teams need to bench a lot of these guys like Zobrist and Longoria and Prince Fielder so they will just stop making so many freakin' outs!!

[DrungoHazewood]

You are too reactionary.

This from the guy who just set his hair on fire and is running up and down Pratt Street with a bullhorn telling Baltimore that Manny is falling into a black hole of outs from which there may well be no escape.

[calmunderfire]

He's 2nd in the majors in PAs. Dustin Pedroia has made over 450 outs - are the Red Sox idiots for letting him do that?

You know, I just noticed a weird coincidence... everyone in the top 30 in outs has played at least 140 games. Clearly teams need to bench a lot of these guys like Zobrist and Longoria and Prince Fielder so they will just stop making so many freakin' outs!!

I mentioned his outs made total in a response to his hits total. He has so many of both because of an enormous amount of plate appearances and zero plate discipline. A .285 average doesn't hurt either.

[El Gordo]

So know counting stats are useless? We can use rate and counting stats.

Where did I say they were useless? Counting stats have little meaning out side of context. Elvis Andrus has the most E's at SS most seasons. What does that mean? BTW if you want to reference a temporal state that is current, the word of choice is "now", not know.