Manny Machado in 2014

[Malike]

I have to agree with calmunderfire here. The fact that Manny is close to 200 hits is not very enlightening unless you put it in context of how many PA he has had and how many outs he has made. The people who are criticizing him for using a counting stat are ignoring the fact that he was responding to a post that was using a counting stat, and showing how a different counting stat could lead to the opposite conclusion to the other poster's.

Here's how I look at this: Manny turned 21 in July and is hitting .285/.313/.437 in his first full year in the majors. In 2008, we had a player in his first full year who turned 23 on August 1 and hit .270/.311/.400. That player was Adam Jones. Manny is two years younger than Adam was then, and I expect he will improve at least as much as Jones did over the last five seasons. At the same time, although Adam is a much better hitter today than in 2008, Adam's tendency to swing at pitches out of the strike zone has only gotten worse over time. So in that respect, I do worry that the bad habits Manny seems to be picking up may not get better with more experience. Obviously, every player's career path is a little different, so we'll see. As I said before, I'd still look to lock him up if the price is right.

My point was missed it seems, or improperly articulated. He said that Manny may not hit. I'm saying he already is hitting. PA is all well and good to look at, but when I get more time, I'd be happy to find a thousand or so players who couldn't get 200 hits with as many PA that Manny has this year. ** Hyperbole Alert **

Seriously, lots of great players make a lot of outs, and I think it's silly to say Machado may not hit. Ridiculous even.

[Can_of_corn]

Nice to see you're buying into the team's "we have no money and can't afford anyone" propaganda.

Yea, that is what I am doing.

Fernandez age 20 season:179 ERA+ .979 WHIP 9.7 K/9 3.0 BB/9

Kershaw age 20 season:98 ERA+ 1.495 WHIP 8.4 K/9 4.3 BB/9

Fernandez is better at a comparable age, he is younger, he is under team control for a much longer period of time, and will cost the team less money in the near future.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yea, that is what I am doing.

Fernandez age 20 season:179 ERA+ .979 WHIP 9.7 K/9 3.0 BB/9

Kershaw age 20 season:98 ERA+ 1.495 WHIP 8.4 K/9 4.3 BB/9

Fernandez is better at a comparable age, he is younger, he is under team control for a much longer period of time, and will cost the team less money in the near future.

But Kershaw has the advantage of having proven he can throw 200+ innings each of the last four years. Fernandez probably has less than a 20% chance of getting to age 25 unscathed.

Of course Kershaw is a free agent in a year so the math doesn't work out. But I'd think about taking 2-3 years of Kershaw over 4-5 of Fernandez.

[Can_of_corn]

But Kershaw has the advantage of having proven he can throw 200+ innings each of the last four years. Fernandez probably has less than a 20% chance of getting to age 25 unscathed.

Of course Kershaw is a free agent in a year so the math doesn't work out. But I'd think about taking 2-3 years of Kershaw over 4-5 of Fernandez.

I agree that is a point in Kershaw's favor.

I'd think about it but it would depend on team budget.

[Orioles_Magic]

Fernandez is under team control for five more years and would be dirt cheap for the next two.

Kershaw is headed for his third year of arbitration next season. He made $11 million this season, so he's going to get huge money starting next season. You'd have to extend him, too. Or risk watching him leave after next season.

I believe that Kershaw is the better pitcher today. But cost-wise, this isn't close.

[markakis8]

Adam Jones in 2008 when he was 22: .270 AVG 9 HR .711 OPS

Everyone remembers Manny is 21 right? The kid is unreal. He's going to be our 3B for quite a few years and barring injury or suspension he will be in the lineup EVERY DAY.

[markakis8]

I have to agree with calmunderfire here. The fact that Manny is close to 200 hits is not very enlightening unless you put it in context of how many PA he has had and how many outs he has made. The people who are criticizing him for using a counting stat are ignoring the fact that he was responding to a post that was using a counting stat, and showing how a different counting stat could lead to the opposite conclusion to the other poster's.

Here's how I look at this: Manny turned 21 in July and is hitting .285/.313/.437 in his first full year in the majors. In 2008, we had a player in his first full year who turned 23 on August 1 and hit .270/.311/.400. That player was Adam Jones. Manny is two years younger than Adam was then, and I expect he will improve at least as much as Jones did over the last five seasons. At the same time, although Adam is a much better hitter today than in 2008, Adam's tendency to swing at pitches out of the strike zone has only gotten worse over time. So in that respect, I do worry that the bad habits Manny seems to be picking up may not get better with more experience. Obviously, every player's career path is a little different, so we'll see. As I said before, I'd still look to lock him up if the price is right.

Sorry I didn't read this when I posted my Adam Jones post:D

[markakis8]

Also, there's no reason we can't do what the Rays did with Longoria and Matt Moore. Team friendly contracts that go 1-2 years beyond arbitration. I believe a few years after the extended Longoria, they extended him again and paid him what he deserves.

[pdiddy]

If the team fails to sign Manny it will be remembered as a Mussina-like failure and close to the Davis trade. He is going to destroy. It better be for us.

[weams]

Also, there's no reason we can't do what the Rays did with Longoria and Matt Moore. Team friendly contracts that go 1-2 years beyond arbitration. I believe a few years after the extended Longoria, they extended him again and paid him what he deserves.

Matt Moore stunk like Kevin Gregg last evening!

[Can_of_corn]

Matt Moore stunk like Kevin Gregg last evening!

Not like Kevin Gregg. Matt Moore gave in.

[Ommaculate]

People need to remember this is Manny's first full season. He could be wearing down. It's a long season for players who have done it for years, much less someone who is doing it for the first time. Could also be he's just slumping at a really bad time.

Makes me wish greenies were legal for these guys.

[Frobby]

My point was missed it seems, or improperly articulated. He said that Manny may not hit. I'm saying he already is hitting. PA is all well and good to look at, but when I get more time, I'd be happy to find a thousand or so players who couldn't get 200 hits with as many PA that Manny has this year. ** Hyperbole Alert **

Seriously, lots of great players make a lot of outs, and I think it's silly to say Machado may not hit. Ridiculous even.

OK, I'm trying to articulate an argument that I don't really support personally, but here it is:

- Machado was great for two months before the league figured him out. On May 30, he had an .892 OPS and had accrued 79 hits in a mere 54 games.

- Since then, the league has figured Manny out. In 98 games, he has a .669 OPS (.281 OBP) and has accumulated only 106 hits in 439 PA.

- Thus, the only reason Manny is approaching 200 hits is (1) he was red hot for two months before the league figured him out, and (2) he has had a huge number of plate appearances (second in the league to Pedroia), and he draws almost no walks (he leads the league in at bats).

- So, even though he is nearing 200 hits, there are substantial concerns about whether Machado will be a good hitter in the future.

There's the argument. For me, though, all players have periods of a season where they do better than during other periods, so the fact that a lot of his offensive production came in the first third of the season doesn't concern me that much. His overall numbers are still pretty good, and at age 21 (20 for more than half the season), there's just very little reason to doubt that he'll continue to improve as he matures and learns.

[Can_of_corn]

OK, I'm trying to articulate an argument that I don't really support personally, but here it is:

- Machado was great for two months before the league figured him out. On May 30, he had an .892 OPS and had accrued 79 hits in a mere 54 games.

- Since then, the league has figured Manny out. In 98 games, he has a .669 OPS (.281 OBP) and has accumulated only 106 hits in 439 PA.

- Thus, the only reason Manny is approaching 200 hits is (1) he was red hot for two months before the league figured him out, and (2) he has had a huge number of plate appearances (second in the league to Pedroia), and he draws almost no walks (he leads the league in at bats).

- So, even though he is nearing 200 hits, there are substantial concerns about whether Machado will be a good hitter in the future.

There's the argument. For me, though, all players have periods of a season where they do better than during other periods, so the fact that a lot of his offensive production came in the first third of the season doesn't concern me that much. His overall numbers are still pretty good, and at age 21 (20 for more than half the season), there's just very little reason to doubt that he'll continue to improve as he matures and learns.

So which of the following would be true?

It took the league four months to figure Manny out.

Manny made a drastic change during the offseason which caused the league to have to scrap his prior book.

The league accidentally lost all the data it had accumulated on Manny from the year before.

[crawjo]

For me, my eyes tell me that he will hit more than he has this year. I think his biggest problem is getting too aggressive and not working his way into more favorable counts. I think with experience and study he will figure this out. It's important to remember how young he is, how much more he has to learn.