Jump to content

Manny Machado in 2014


webbrick2010

Recommended Posts

Boswell is showing a bit of obliviousness - first, by comparing Machado to a 1B who is well-below-average defensively; second, by ignoring the fact that this was technically Machado's age-20 season. He's not wrong - you want to see more walks, but it's not a huge concern at this point given the fact that his BB% wasn't really a problem on his way up.

That aside, I'd put even money that Machado's OPS next year is w/in ~ .025 OPS of Davis.

Jim !!! How are you ???

How about that Chris Tillman ??? :cool:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 115
  • Created
  • Last Reply
So you think Davis is going to backslide that much?

I think Davis will be somewhere in the .850-.900 range, likely. Not sure that's a backslide, really. More a slight correction.

Jim !!! How are you ???

How about that Chris Tillman ??? :cool:

Good, good. I was very pleased watching Chris handle everything as well as he did this year. And, of course, would like to add (a general): I told you so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Davis will be somewhere in the .850-.900 range, likely. Not sure that's a backslide, really. More a slight correction.

Good, good. I was very pleased watching Chris handle everything as well as he did this year. And, of course, would like to add (a general): I told you so.

Don't see Manny getting much beyond .800 OPS. Doubt Davis falls as far as .825.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not really worried about what Machado's OPS will be next year. I'm more interested in just his OBP. I'm more inclined to believe his 2nd half OBP is more indicative of his true talent than the first half. That's when he became a higher profile hitter and he never adjusted to some of the adjustments the league made to him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not really worried about what Machado's OPS will be next year. I'm more interested in just his OBP. I'm more inclined to believe his 2nd half OBP is more indicative of his true talent than the first half. That's when he became a higher profile hitter and he never adjusted to some of the adjustments the league made to him.

What adjustments would that be? You mean "slider, slider, slider" or if "I was a pitcher I'd throw him sliders, sliders, sliders" or "I trust Jim Palmer's analysis that he just can't hit sliders" or that "everybody is an idiot at looking at pitch values and it's all about the slider"?

Now you're trying to introduce a more nuanced argument about "adjustments" after being a repetitive droll for 3 months.

Please. tell us. What adjustments do you think Machado needs to make?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What adjustments would that be? You mean "slider, slider, slider" or if "I was a pitcher I'd throw him sliders, sliders, sliders" or "I trust Jim Palmer's analysis that he just can't hit sliders" or that "everybody is an idiot at looking at pitch values and it's all about the slider"?

Now you're trying to introduce a more nuanced argument about "adjustments" after being a repetitive droll for 3 months.

Please. tell us. What adjustments do you think Machado needs to make?

These are the adjustments Machado can't handle.

1. More sliders, especially 2 strike sliders.

2. Less high fastballs.

3. Less pitches in the zone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

These are the adjustments Machado can't handle.

1. More sliders, especially 2 strike sliders.

2. Less high fastballs.

3. Less pitches in the zone.

Wow, "fastballs and pitches out of the strike zone" Amazing. Maybe some issues with 2 seam fastballs/sinkers too Calmunderfire? It's amazing the statistics didn't point this stuff out in your initial "slider, slider, slider" argument. You know when you were dismissing other people as dumb for bringing them up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not really worried about what Machado's OPS will be next year. I'm more interested in just his OBP. I'm more inclined to believe his 2nd half OBP is more indicative of his true talent than the first half. That's when he became a higher profile hitter and he never adjusted to some of the adjustments the league made to him.

I don't think there's any substantive reason to believe that. When Hank Aaron put up a .675 OPS with two homers in the 2nd half of his age 20 season was that more indicative of his true talent than the .822 he put up the first half? Obviously his flaws were so glaring that the National League saw them even without the benefit of modern video, and it must have been divine intervention that he bounced back from it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think there's any substantive reason to believe that. When Hank Aaron put up a .675 OPS with two homers in the 2nd half of his age 20 season was that more indicative of his true talent than the .822 he put up the first half? Obviously his flaws were so glaring that the National League saw them even without the benefit of modern video, and it must have been divine intervention that he bounced back from it.

1. Hank Aaron is a far more talented hitter than Machado.

2. Most great players show actual greatness early, not signs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, "fastballs and pitches out of the strike zone" Amazing. Maybe some issues with 2 seam fastballs/sinkers too Calmunderfire? It's amazing the statistics didn't point this stuff out in your initial "slider, slider, slider" argument. You know when you were dismissing other people as dumb for bringing them up.

His number one weakness is he cannot lay off sliders out of the strike zone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1. Hank Aaron is a far more talented hitter than Machado.

2. Most great players show actual greatness early, not signs.

1. How do you know this, since they had very similar numbers as 20-year-olds, despite Machado playing in a demonstrably superior league?

2. Oh really? And putting up a 7-win season at 20 isn't great?

At 20: Barry Bonds was in the minor leagues.

Willie Mays put up a 920 OPS in the first half, but slumped to a 767 the second half.

Hank Aaron slumped badly the 2nd half of the year, as previously documented.

Tris Speaker OPS'd .538.

Honus Wagner was not playing professional baseball.

Stan Musial had 47 MLB plate appearances after splitting the year between Class C ball and AA ball.

Eddie Collins went 8-for-23, then had a .691 after becoming a regular at 21.

Lou Gehrig went 11-for-26 then got sent back to the minors for almost all of the next year, too.

Rickey Henderson had a .675 OPS.

Mike Schmidt wasn't yet in pro ball, several years from starting his MLB career with a .650ish OPS in his first season+.

Joe Morgan had a .492 OPS in 10 MLB games.

Eddie Mathews had a .767 OPS and led the league in strikeouts.

Yaz had 7 homers in a full season in AAA, and followed that up with a .721 OPS at 21.

But yea, you're right. Except for 75% of inner-circle HOFers everyone always hits the ground running and consistently dominates MLB at 20.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • I think this is part of what is going on.  Hays in my opinion is pushing a bit because he wants to stay and keep playing.  In the off season he announced he would love to sign an extension.   He ia a player I have always liked and admired.  He was a bright light on some dark teams without much talent.  He played all out when there wasn't much to play for except pride. However, the tide is rising and it would appear guys like Hays will be replaced.  Whether he continues as a 4th OF guy or not IDK.  I hope he comes out of it and plays his best.  But I still expect Cowser to get the most abs.
    • Cowser HR distances: 438, 357, 415, 422, 430. Westburg HR distances: 369, 432, 400, 404, 433. These guys don’t hit many cheapies.  
    • I agree with the professional ABs part. And have thought about him being given a chance against Tuesday’s starter for the Angels and the A’s pitching this weekend. If he cannot build some positive momentum facing “weaker” pitching, then it may be time for a reset? However, I very much believe in his talent and am very confident that he will become a star. I know many don’t want to accept/believe it (because we live in a very instantaneous society) but most often these things take time. What is surprising to me is to see vet/extremely knowledgeable posters speak so harshly about the kid, as if we didn’t just watch so many of our budding stars struggle out of the gate. Yes, his struggles have been worse, but he is also the youngest/most inexperienced prospect that we have had (certainly amongst the current crop).
    • Those are the numbers that came to my mind. That is pretty aggressive OPS numbers when you add them up. 
    • The issue for me is not his ability with the bat in his hands. It is the lack of starting pitching talent/depth throughout the org. And what that will look like if/when Burnes leaves via free agency. When you have this many good young players but they all are position players; you have to at least seriously consider who you can trade to help balance the talent.  Sure we can get Norby some platoon ABs this year. But what happens next year when Holliday will be planted at 2B, Mayo will need a regular spot, and so will Kjerstad? And then there is Basallo who will be ready to make the jump at some time next season. IMO it seems short sighted to try to force him on to the MLB roster this year when you know the situation that lies ahead.  Now maybe we trade 1 or 2 of the other guys, that I mentioned, and then this is no longer a conversation? Who knows how things will ultimately play out?
    • Colton Cowser (.373/.411/.784) and Jordan Westburg (.333/.392/.692) are both on a tremendous roll right now, but where do you see them settling in? Cowser was a .298/.420/.489 hitter as a minor leaguer, including .280/.399/.498 in AAA.   His cumulative major league numbers are .232/.338/.438. Westburg was a .278/.371/.506 hitter as a minor leaguer, including .283/.366/.533 in AAA.   His cumulative major league numbers are .279/.332/.464.    My best guess is that Cowser settles in around .285/.375/.485, while Westburg is something like .275/.350/.485.   And honestly, that would be pretty amazing.   
    • Until he gets those walks down, I'm not going to get my hopes up on him being a productive Major League pitcher.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...