Manny Machado in 2014

[waroriole]

So you are saying he just got lucky in August?

You can't deny that was a big part of it. It's not like he's shown any power in the 2nd half.

[Barnaby Graves]

So you are saying he just got lucky in August?

Luck's a component, sure. But as I peak at his batted ball stats, his LD% in August was bumped up to 18.8% while in the months before and after, when he was much colder, his LD% was a bit lower. And in August he was hitting more flyballs and less of those flyballs were infield fly balls.

So there's luck involved but it's luck being driven by how well he is making contact. He was pretty bad in July, with his highest groundball rate and he didn't have a single infield hit the entire month. .540 OPS.

[mark_beckens]

He's still only 21. Most players are either still in college or the minors. He'll be fine.

[El Gordo]

You can't deny that was a big part of it. It's not like he's shown any power in the 2nd half.

His HR rate in the second half is greater than the first.

[JTrea81]

Cameron Maybin is an interesting name to bring up. He was ranked the #8 prospect in 2009, and had a career OBP close to .400 in the minors, and went from having BB rates from 11-13% to as low as 7.5% with the Marlins. Manny Machado was ranked #12 in 2012 and had a 13.5% BB rate in A ball, a 8.5% BB rate in Frederick and a 10.5% BB rate in Bowie. With the Orioles that's now decreased to 4.5% in 2012 and now 3.9% in 2013. Granted his OBP in the minors of .344 was not as high as Maybin's so the dropoff isn't as large, but like Maybin he's abandoned the ability to get on base that he had.

[calmunderfire]

Man he's just ice cold. He could very well finish at .275 for the year like I said he would in June.

I don't even want to think about what his OBP has been since I noticed the league starting making adjustments that he couldn't adjust too.

I don't think it's ridiculous to question if his bat will play up at 3B in the MLB. May need a move to SS. Which is what he is anyways so not a huge deal from that standpoint.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Man he's just ice cold. He could very well finish at .275 for the year like I said he would in June.

I don't even want to think about what his OBP has been since I noticed the league starting making adjustments that he couldn't adjust too.

You mean your slider, slider, slider insight. You might be in the Nobel prize running for that one.

[waroriole]

His HR rate in the second half is greater than the first.

What's his ISO?

[El Gordo]

What's his ISO?

Why don't you look it up. I don't care.

[waroriole]

Why don't you look it up. I don't care.

BS.

The real answer is it doesn't suit your argument so you won't write it down.

His 2nd half ISO is .135, while it was .160 in the 1st half. This is despite his higher HR rate in the 2nd half.

[El Gordo]

BS.

The real answer is it doesn't suit your argument so you won't write it down.

His 2nd half ISO is .135, while it was .160 in the 1st half. This is despite his higher HR rate in the 2nd half.

My point is he has been swinging for the fences the second half. Not a good idea but he is just a dumb kid.

[Stotle]

Cameron Maybin is an interesting name to bring up. He was ranked the #8 prospect in 2009, and had a career OBP close to .400 in the minors, and went from having BB rates from 11-13% to as low as 7.5% with the Marlins. Manny Machado was ranked #12 in 2012 and had a 13.5% BB rate in A ball, a 8.5% BB rate in Frederick and a 10.5% BB rate in Bowie. With the Orioles that's now decreased to 4.5% in 2012 and now 3.9% in 2013. Granted his OBP in the minors of .344 was not as high as Maybin's so the dropoff isn't as large, but like Maybin he's abandoned the ability to get on base that he had.

I don't think that sort of stat pulling is useful in this context -- they are very different players.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Boswell on Machado from today's chat:

The surprise to me in the fade of Manny Machado as an offensive player. His OPS is .744. Adam LaRoche is .742.

OPS isn't everything. But that should give pause. 663 at bats, only 14 HR, 29 walks, 6-for-13 on steals. Fab defense. But there's a reason he's only scored 87 runs despite having a guy w 51 homers close behind him __he's a No. 2 hitter with a BAD on-base percentage (.313). O's are going to have to some thinking about where he fits in the lineup, how to make him better. Great prospect for 21. Great personality for the game. Will keep getting better. But not yet a good all-around offensive player. And he wore out more than any other Bird (look at last 30-day #s.)

http://live.washingtonpost.com/ask-boswell-130923.html

[Lucky Jim]

Boswell on Machado from today's chat:

http://live.washingtonpost.com/ask-boswell-130923.html

Boswell is showing a bit of obliviousness - first, by comparing Machado to a 1B who is well-below-average defensively; second, by ignoring the fact that this was technically Machado's age-20 season. He's not wrong - you want to see more walks, but it's not a huge concern at this point given the fact that his BB% wasn't really a problem on his way up.

That aside, I'd put even money that Machado's OPS next year is w/in ~ .025 OPS of Davis.

[El Gordo]

Boswell is showing a bit of obliviousness - first, by comparing Machado to a 1B who is well-below-average defensively; second, by ignoring the fact that this was technically Machado's age-20 season. He's not wrong - you want to see more walks, but it's not a huge concern at this point given the fact that his BB% wasn't really a problem on his way up.

That aside, I'd put even money that Machado's OPS next year is w/in ~ .025 OPS of Davis.

So you think Davis is going to backslide that much?