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Rosenthal reports Wieters might be traded, O's going after Salty


TradeAngelos

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He may know it, but he'll ask for a 7/105 type contract for Wieters, knowing this is likely the contract of his career. Did you think anyone would give Jayson Werth a 126M contract?
Good stuff. I concede to your evidence.

Here is some more data I had assembled before:

Mauer 24.1 fWAR -- 8 yrs, $184 mm

Molina 22.1 fWAR -- 10 yrs, $96.5 mm (includes a 5/$75 mm extension)

Posey 17.7 fWAR -- 9 yrs, $164 mm

McCann 17.5 fWAR -- 7 yrs, $41.3 mm ($12 mm this year, final year of deal)

Ruiz 16.5 fWAR -- 4 yrs, $13.3 mm ($5 mm this year)

Napoli 16.3 fWAR -- 1 yr, $5 mm ($13 mm with incentives; not really a catcher any more)

Wieters 14.1 fWAR

Montero 13.7 fWAR -- 6 yrs, $66 mm ($10 mm this year)

Martin 12.6 fWAR -- 2 yrs, $17 mm

Santana 11.6 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $21 mm (all 5 yrs were under team control anyway,option for $12 mm in 2017)

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Here is some more data I had assembled before:

Mauer 24.1 fWAR -- 8 yrs, $184 mm

Molina 22.1 fWAR -- 10 yrs, $96.5 mm (includes a 5/$75 mm extension)

Posey 17.7 fWAR -- 9 yrs, $164 mm

McCann 17.5 fWAR -- 7 yrs, $41.3 mm ($12 mm this year, final year of deal)

Ruiz 16.5 fWAR -- 4 yrs, $13.3 mm ($5 mm this year)

Napoli 16.3 fWAR -- 1 yr, $5 mm ($13 mm with incentives; not really a catcher any more)

Wieters 14.1 fWAR

Montero 13.7 fWAR -- 6 yrs, $66 mm ($10 mm this year)

Martin 12.6 fWAR -- 2 yrs, $17 mm

Santana 11.6 fWAR -- 5 yrs, $21 mm (all 5 yrs were under team control anyway,option for $12 mm in 2017)

He compares well to Ruiz in his current state.

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He has quit over less.

I'm not sure if he'd quit as it would probably mean he'd never manage again. He would be perceived as a guy that quits if he doesn't get his way. He and Duquette aren't Eng and Chang. There will be differences and while Showalter will be plead his case, I'd say it is Duquette that has the final say.

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I'm not sure if he'd quit as it would probably mean he'd never manage again. He would be perceived as a guy that quits if he doesn't get his way. He and Duquette aren't Eng and Chang. There will be differences and while Showalter will be plead his case, I'd say it is Duquette that has the final say.

Potter has final say...as will likely be soon be seen once again related to BRob and Nick.

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I think it is a mistake to just look at one year of stats when evaluating a player for a long term contract. ESPN does a nice job of giving three year splits which I think are valuable to look at Wieters offense.

McCann looks like the best comp for Wieters.

Wieters, 1549 AB, 198 R, 67 HR, 230 RBI, 249/315/434/749, age 27/28 in May

McCann, 1261 AB, 138 R, 64 HR, 195 RBI, 252/329/441/770, age 30 next year

All Stars: 2 Wieters; 7 McCann

Gold Glove: 2 Wieters; 0 McCann

Silver Slugger: 0 Wieters; 5 McCann

Wieters is thought of as a defensive player that hits.

McCann is thought of as an offensive player that catchers.

Wieters plays more games and is more durable to this point in their careers.

Wieters has a much stronger caught stealing percentage: Wieters 37%; McCann 23%

To me Russell Martin is not as close to Wieters offensively but is a good comp defensively.

Martin, 1277 AB, 158 R, 54 HR, 173 RBI, 225/321/395/716, age 31 next year

Caught stealing percentage 31%

3 time All Star

1 Gold Glove

1 Silver Slugger

Summary: Wieters and McCann have similar offensive numbers over the last 3 years with McCann having a slight edge. Wieters is far better at controling the running game. With Martin being 2nd and McCann not that good.

Whatever McCann gets this winter Wieters is probably worth a little more for his defense. Wieters is two years younger and can justify a year or two longer contract if we are looking at his market value.

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I think it is a mistake to just look at one year of stats when evaluating a player for a long term contract. ESPN does a nice job of giving three year splits which I think are valuable to look at Wieters offense.

McCann looks like the best comp for Wieters....

Whatever McCann gets this winter Wieters is probably worth a little more for his defense. Wieters is two years younger and can justify a year or two longer contract if we are looking at his market value.

Wieters will be the same age when he hits FA as McCann is now. Players who in their arb years generally do not earn their full value that they would receive in FA, though Wieters may come close because the O's were very generous with him last winter.

I don't place special emphasis on the three years you used as a comp, because McCannn had a shoulder problem in 2012 that hurt his offense. His career OPS is 84 points higher than Wieters' and that's a better measure of the offensive difference between them than the three-year comp you used, IMO. One huge thing to remember is that McCann hits well enough that he can probably move to 1B or DH and be league average for those positions, whereas Wieters loses a ton of value if he has to move from catcher.

I think Wieters will get more than Martin, but I don't think he'll get the money McCann will. When it comes to salary, offense pays better than defense.

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Wieters will be the same age when he hits FA as McCann is now. Players who in their arb years generally do not earn their full value that they would receive in FA, though Wieters may come close because the O's were very generous with him last winter.

I don't place special emphasis on the three years you used as a comp, because McCannn had a shoulder problem in 2012 that hurt his offense. His career OPS is 84 points higher than Wieters' and that's a better measure of the offensive difference between them than the three-year comp you used, IMO. One huge thing to remember is that McCann hits well enough that he can probably move to 1B or DH and be league average for those positions, whereas Wieters loses a ton of value if he has to move from catcher.

I think Wieters will get more than Martin, but I don't think he'll get the money McCann will. When it comes to salary, offense pays better than defense.

Now let me see if I understand you.

1) You think the guy with the hurt shoulder that you don't know will ever be as good as he was is better than the guy with no injury.

2) You believe that stats that someone put up 5 years ago are a better gauge of the future than what someone did the last three years.

3) You will bet on the guy for a 5 year contract from 30-34 over the guy from 28-32.

Can't say as I agree with any of that.

I do agree that Wieters may get less for next year as an arbitration year. However his final arbitration year may be as high as a free agency year because salaries are going up fast with the 750M in TV money add to the industry.

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Well, McCann did come back from the shoulder injury/surgery last year and put up a .796 OPS (.811 OPS in 2011 before he played hurt in 2012) and match his career rate in caught stealing (24%). Satistically, he looks to be back to normal.

Back to normal? He didn't play in April at all and he hit for a 674 OPS in August and a 554 OPS in September. That doesn't sound like he is physically back at all.

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Matt Wieters has made it easier for us to say goodbye.

That's true. I love Matt and wouldn't mind keeping him around for $6-10 million per. (Yes, I realize that's very low.) If we could sign him to 4/40, I would not be thrilled but I wouldn't be horrified. If we signed him to a $75 million deal or something, I would worry about this organization and its ability to deploy capital intelligently.

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I'm still not sure what the urgency is with Wieters. He's under team control for two more seasons. Boras is not going to want to sign an extension after such a poor season. (I do think he would sign an extension if Wieters increased his value…right now there's no incentive for him to do it.) I also don't think the Orioles are going to get that much for him right now. Why not just have him play out next year and see what happens?

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Some baseball fans have built up this image of Boras in their heads which is much more impressive then the reality.

Well he is probably the reason people are misguided into thinking players are worth 5.2 million per WAR. So I think he does his job pretty well. He still is making a ton of cash. And though he made some mistakes like Edwin Jackson he has done very well overall. If I was a player in decline and hitting free agency I would pick Boras as my agent.

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