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Olney - Orioles Facing a Run of Tough Choices


TonySoprano

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Well, if you aren't going to get that impact player to put you over the hump then what is the alternative? Trot out the status quo and become the perennial third place Jays of the last decade? Hope for another 2012 miracle?

If it must be built entirely from the draft and trades then we should at least attempt to model ourselves after the Rays.

The Rays would:

  • Trade Wieters this offseason and get a solid haul of prospects.
  • Trade Johnson to a team who wants to extend him (if they can find one) - otherwise let him walk and re-allocate those funds more wisely.
  • Try desperately to find a team to take on half of Cake's salary and get whatever you can in return.

Wouldn't they?

Plan for a long-term core of: Machado, Hardy (??), Jones, Davis, Tillman, Gausman, Bundy, prospects you get from Wieter's trade.

(I suppose I could be completely crazy, but it would make my day if Duquette dared to go that route. Based on early rumors it sounds at least like he has contemplated it. For I fear the alternative is a mediocre 2014 with no real plan going forward since our farm system is weak and our owner suffers from freeagentphobia.)

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Well, if you aren't going to get that impact player to put you over the hump then what is the alternative? Trot out the status quo and become the perennial third place Jays of the last decade? Hope for another 2012 miracle?

If it must be built entirely from the draft and trades then we should at least attempt to model ourselves after the Rays.

The Rays would:

  • Trade Wieters this offseason and get a solid haul of prospects.
  • Trade Johnson to a team who wants to extend him (if they can find one) - otherwise let him walk and re-allocate those funds more wisely.
  • Try desperately to find a team to take on half of Cake's salary and get whatever you can in return.

Wouldn't they?

Plan for a long-term core of: Machado, Hardy (??), Jones, Davis, Tillman, Gausman, Bundy, prospects you get from Wieter's trade.

(I suppose I could be completely crazy, but it would make my day if Duquette dared to go that route. Based on early rumors it sounds at least like he has contemplated it. For I fear the alternative is a mediocre 2014 with no real plan going forward since our farm system is weak and our owner suffers from freeagentphobia.)

I've seen this argument made by a few people in this thread, but I just don't see how 2014 will be better than mediocre if you move Wieters, Johnson, and Markakis. Sure, you free up $30 million, but how are you going to use it to get more than 10 WAR in 2014?

From my perspective, the window is short. They have to be careful not to do worse than have an 85 win team that is a standard deviation away from the playoffs. Otherwise, you might as well trade everyone.

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The Red Sox decided to trade away WAR (what is it good for? absolutely nothing) in 2012 and used the money to reload. In regard to trading Markakis, (as if Angelos would ever approve it) I don't see the payroll savings because we're probably going to have to pay a sizable portion of his salary in a trade .

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The Red Sox decided to trade away WAR (what is it good for? absolutely nothing) in 2012 and used the money to reload. In regard to trading Markakis, (as if Angelos would ever approve it) I don't see the payroll savings because we're probably going to have to pay a sizable portion of his salary in a trade .

The only way I'd see that playing out is if we were going to get a significant prospect...and that ain't happening.

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Guest rochester
The Red Sox decided to trade away WAR (what is it good for? absolutely nothing) in 2012 and used the money to reload. In regard to trading Markakis, (as if Angelos would ever approve it) I don't see the payroll savings because we're probably going to have to pay a sizable portion of his salary in a trade .

Which is fine if that $$ is spent on productivity.

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Is it just a foregone conclusion that we will lose one or more of Wieters, Markakis, Davis, and JJohnson soon? I don't think that giving up any of those guys is a step in the right direction for this team, particularly considering two of the (JJ and Nick) would get us nothing or next to nothing in return.

The last bit of the article is right: this is not going to be a good winter to be an O's fan.

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Is it just a foregone conclusion that we will lose one or more of Wieters, Markakis, Davis, and JJohnson soon? I don't think that giving up any of those guys is a step in the right direction for this team, particularly considering two of the (JJ and Nick) would get us nothing or next to nothing in return.

The last bit of the article is right: this is not going to be a good winter to be an O's fan.

Unless someone can convince ownership to greatly increase spending it will happen.

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Guest rochester
I'm ready for BIG change.

Jim Johnson, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters - Out

Assortment of inexpensive alternatives - In

Might result in a down year for 2014, but its not like if we keep these guys its going to result in a 2014 World Series anyways. We simply do not have the starting pitching nor the fortitude to buy it. Plus, I see no future for any of these guys in this organization beyond 2014. Get what you can for them now and move on.

#pipedream

The only way I see the above making much of a negative difference is Wieters going - and, even in that scenario, the longer term ramifications of keeping him without an extension, are worse - we will get no return. Paying Davis is a better investment, plus if he wasn't already here, many would be clamoring for that special MOO. You can have your Fielder, I'll take CD.

IMO, JJ, Roberts and Nick being gone does not mean a down year. I am a bit surprised that what Olney is saying, i.e., the extent of it, is out there. Plus, there is a lot of conjecture on his part... and assumptions. I mean, "Officials in other organizations are doing the Orioles' math, as they evaluate trade possibilities, and they figure that something has to give; they figure that Duquette will have to slash somewhere." I mean, duh, if an "official" from another team said anything else,and trying to lower any demand in trade no matter how small, they should be fired. IMO, Wieters is being shopped because DD knows that we will never pay him Boras money - Nick is being shopped for obvious reasons... JJ aka the closer, is not worth $10M. If we non-tendered JJ and traded Nick that gives us ~$25M to play with - You can get a lot of increased production with $25M - revisit CD at the end of this season - extending is a good idea, but his value may never be higher than now...

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Here is my $.02.

O's problem is Boras and his ego.

Wieters is not a $14 million a year catcher for any team with his career stats. It's a fantasy land number that Boras typically throws out in Arb years to force teams to overpay. Now, 2 years from now, who knows. But O's should offer Wieters a 5-6 year deal worth $60-70 million.

Davis is gonna get big money. Question is do the O's offer a massive long term deal (6 or longer)? I would have no problem offering Davis a 6-8 year deal in the $100 million range and I don't think Davis would turn it down. It'll give him FA years in his mid 30s if signed this off-season.

Now, nobody kid themselves but Markakis is off the roster in 2015. That's $13 million (there is a $2 million buyout) out there starting 2015. So he's either traded or let go. He's not worth the money we are paying him.

O's rotation isn't that bad, it had a bad year. They have a pitcher that could be #1. Tillman, who if he builds on 2013 will be one of the best pitchers in the AL. He should have been a 20 game winner in 2013. So that's a bright spot most ignore and we have him until 2017. Then Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy who in two years could be solid #2 and #3 in the rotation or the O's can toss Johnson on the market and make Gausman the closer and that again would free up $10 million.

Ruiz got $8.5 miilion a year.What is Wieters worth then? Montero money? He makes 12 million a year.

Faced with the prospect of losing their longtime catcher, Carlos Ruiz, to the Boston Red Sox, the Philadelphia Phillies agreed Monday to re-sign Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN.com.

The deal will pay Ruiz a salary of $8.5 million in each of the next three seasons, according to a source familiar with the contract. There is also a $4.5 million club option for the 2017 season or a $500,000 buyout.

Carlos Ruiz's deal will pay him $8.5 million in each of the next three seasons, a source said, and will make him the fourth-highest-paid catcher in baseball.

Ruiz, who turns 35 in January, becomes the fourth-highest-paid catcher in baseball, with an average annual value of $8.67 million.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9995925/philadelphia-phillies-re-sign-veteran-catcher-carlos-ruiz

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There was a lot of buzz after the 2003 season about the Orioles spending spree during the Winter Meetings. What many may not realize after that was 2004 payroll was $51.6M down from $73.9M in 2003 despite adding Tejada, Palmeiro, and Lopez (combined salary, $15M). They saved $30M when the contracts of Belle, Erickson, Bautista, and Conine expired. Overall, the 2003 Orioles had twelve players making more than $2M, and in 2004 seven of the twelve were gone.

What was the lesson learned from that year? To add players, the Orioles first had to shed more payroll than they added. Does that sound like 2014? Deja vu all over again.

One lesson they failed to learn from was 2004 attendance spiked almost 12% in part due to preseason sales because it appeared the Orioles were ready to make a move. This was the first attendance increase after six straight attendance drops from 1997-2003. After 2004, there weren't any big moves, and attendance again steadily dropped year-after year for six more years.

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Did anyone read the first line of Olney's article and think to themselves "wow, the Orioles payroll increased nearly 40% in 3+ years?"

For as much as we like to say Angelos is hoarding it, I think that fact kind of blows that out of the water. Not to mention the orioles have improved the stadium, hire better and more coaches, and invested in the ST complex in that time.

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Did anyone read the first line of Olney's article and think to themselves "wow, the Orioles payroll increased nearly 40% in 3+ years?"

For as much as we like to say Angelos is hoarding it, I think that fact kind of blows that out of the water. Not to mention the orioles have improved the stadium, hire better and more coaches, and invested in the ST complex in that time.

2011 attendance was 1,755,461.

2013 attendance was 2,357,551.

602,090 more tickets were sold for 2013.

How much more revenue is that?

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