Olney - Orioles Facing a Run of Tough Choices

[OrioleMagic79]

We kind of did repeat 2012's success in a lot of ways.

We did? The 2013 Orioles would have been 8 games back of the 2012 Orioles at the end of the season...the 2012 Orioles that didn't even win the division, mind you...how, in any way, is that repeating the success of 2012?

[MurphDogg]

We did? The 2013 Orioles would have been 8 games back of the 2012 Orioles at the end of the season...the 2012 Orioles that didn't even win the division, mind you...how, in any way, is that repeating the success of 2012?

The 2012 Orioles got incredibly lucky, the 2013 Orioles had average to slightly below average luck. The run differential was better in 2013 than 2012.

[OrioleMagic79]

The 2012 Orioles got incredibly lucky, the 2013 Orioles had average to slightly below average luck. The run differential was better in 2013 than 2012.

I don't disagree at all. That doesn't have anything to do with whether 2013 was a repeat of 2012's success...which it was not, no matter how 2012's success was earned...

I think 2013 is who this team is, which is why I want to build upon this foundation of a pretty good team so that we can become a great team and have a shot at winning the WS...if you aren't trying to win the WS, then why play?

[Can_of_corn]

I don't disagree at all. That doesn't have anything to do with whether 2013 was a repeat of 2012's success...which it was not, no matter how 2012's success was earned...

I think 2013 is who this team is, which is why I want to build upon this foundation of a pretty good team so that we can become a great team and have a shot at winning the WS...if you aren't trying to win the WS, then why play?

The team had more success in outscoring the opposition in 2013. There is some degree of value in that.

[twinedenter]

My issue is during the off-season last year we had holes in LF, 2B, DH, and starting pitching.

What are our holes in for 2014? Exact same. We signed band-aids and did not fix these issues.

[OrioleMagic79]

The team had more success in outscoring the opposition in 2013. There is some degree of value in that.

OK. What is the point though? I'm confused...does that the O's should stay pat?

[OrioleMagic79]

My issue is during the off-season last year we had holes in LF, 2B, DH, and starting pitching.

What are our holes in for 2014? Exact same. We signed band-aids and did not fix these issues.

Exactly...once in awhile you get a really good bandaid, but eventually it loses its stick...we need real solutions or we will be an 86 win team until this core of players declines and we return to praying for a .500 season...

[Can_of_corn]

OK. What is the point though? I'm confused...does that the O's should stay pat?

No, I am just saying that despite a worse record it is possible that the 2013 team was better then the 2012 team.

I personally think that if they stand pat they slip a few more games in the standings and finish around 500.

[OrioleMagic79]

No, I am just saying that despite a worse record it is possible that the 2013 team was better then the 2012 team.

I personally think that if they stand pat they slip a few more games in the standings and finish around 500.

Fair enough, that may be true. I guess I am just concerned with improving from 86 wins for next season, and so I was focused on that. I should have mentioned that I was thinking we took a step back because the luck wore off, but any time I mentioned luck and 2012 in the past I received some heat on here...but I think it is the main reason for the better 2012 record than the 2013 record.

I was just trying to say that the luck caught up with us because with the team we had, we weren't likely to repeat that success because of the way we got there in the first place (unknown guys like Hammel playing better than they usually do, finding a McLouth to rise from the ashes, winning extra inning and one run games at an impossible pace, etc.)

[notyourbuddy]

Where was all of this train of thought when I explained that exact scenario playing out last offseason? I said that we finally had that foundation and that our pitching staff needed an ace, maybe even a #2, and that we needed to go get the best that we could find, even if it meant spending more than we want to...

Well at least entering the 2013 season they could use Gausman & Bundy as excuses as to why they refused to upgrade the rotation in the offseason. They thought they might be able to contribute to the top of the rotation early-mid 2013 and didn't want to block them with a more expensive arm.

That won't work in 2014. Gausman showed he is going to need more development time and Bundy will be on rehab most of the year. With these guys out of the picture we are about to see just how committed to winning this organization really is.

A starting pitcher to go with their offense+defense puts this team right back into the mix as a threat in the AL East while sitting around idle....watching every team around us improve...again...would pretty much be the proverbial knife in the back.

[BradyBunch]

There's a lot of people in here talking about how we are about to miss our window on this core of players if we don't spend some money on a couple guys to put us over the top...even claiming we are going to miss out and should consider trading for young guys and aim for another future window instead of trying to squeeze through this one with a last ditch effort...

I don't mind trading players. But at the position people are discussing trading we have nobody to replace them with.

Where was all of this train of thought when I explained that exact scenario playing out last offseason? I said that we finally had that foundation and that our pitching staff needed an ace, maybe even a #2, and that we needed to go get the best that we could find, even if it meant spending more than we want to...

O's are never gonna have an ace from Free Agency. O's will never spend for a ace. This has been a fact for a better part of last 30 years. 1996 pitching staff was either drafted or traded for. Same with the 1997 team.

So here we are, watching the window start to close, and yet still the front office that promised to spend when we have the foundation in place is allowing the foundation to crumble without going and getting those final two pieces in a true #1 and either a #2 quality guy that can actually be a #3 for us because of Tillman, or a big bat to go with that #1...

The O's have another 2 seasons of a window. But spending doesn't always equate to winning. Albert Belle didn't improve the O's. Nor did signing Miguel Tejada. Problem is O's are a mid market team. But you want a big market solution. A's don't have a clear #1 nor did the Indians. A's lucked out on Bartolo Col?n and both are in very weak divisions. Put the O's in the Central or West and we are 90 plus win team, winning the division for the last two years. Put A's and Indians in the east and they would be facing the same problems we are.

I love the O's, but this is an incredibly frustrating franchise to be a die hard fan of...I'll never waiver, but that doesn't mean I can't be frustrated.

You are only a die hard fan when you are frustrated. But the solutions you call for is what screwed the O's in the past. Big crappy contracts that made the Front Office afraid to spend on the quality players.

What kills me is that everyone claiming Tillman will be our #1 is overlooking the fact that even if he becomes the best pitcher in baseball, how do we compete with teams that have pitching rotations like St. Louis, Boston, and the like?

I don't care about competing with St. Louis until the World Series so my team better not be built around competing with a team we'll only play at most 7 times. With that said Wainwright and Westbrook are not spring chickens.. their careers are almost over.

O's owned Boston this year and the previous year. We match up pretty well against them. Problem with the O's is they dropped the games they shouldn't. Diamondback series is a good example. So is being 2-4 against the M's, 3-4 against Indians and Royals.

6 game to 7 games and then a few games that where blown in the late innings. That was the difference. Not starting pitching.

The reason we need to sign a #1 is BECAUSE we have Tillman...if he progresses even more this season, then we would have a rotation that could compete...we lost in the playoffs in 2012 to the NYY because we couldn't match up against a true #1 in a guy like Sabathia...we even scored some on him, but we couldn't stop them from scoring...we will never win a 5 games series if the other team gets two automatic wins because we don't have an ace on staff...maybe Tillman will become that ace, but we have nobody that is a legit #2 then...Tillman would have been an ideal #2 last season...and we aren't even paying him like a big boy yet...that's WHY we should have gotten someone...

O's matched up against NYY very well 2012 and 2013. 2012 post season failure comes back to the Bullpen yet again. Game 1 was a blown hold/save situation. Game 3 was the same thing. So by game 3 the O's should have wrapped it up but for huge mistakes by the bullpen, not the starter.

It's that selective memory that annoys me about those who claim O's need to spend stupid money for average pitching for FA this year.

If we wait two years for Gausman and Bundy, then we won't have Davis, Wieters, Markakis, Hardy (maybe), or Roberts (meh, I know)...so we'll have Jones, Manny, and Tillman? That sure sounds a lot like the mid 2000's where we had Markakis, Roberts and Mora with some promising young pitchers that everyone was excited about...that wasn't a great place to be in and I would like to be better than that in two years...

We'll have Davis. Wieters who knows. Markakis? Who's he.. oh you mean the slap hitter who's playing like he's 40. Hardy is more then likely gone in a trade this year or to FA next year. He's always stated for the last few years he'd like to play for the Dbacks.

Players come in go in baseball. It's the talent you have behind them. That's something the O's have more of now then they did before.

If we win now, then we will be more attractive for FA players, and though the big names that sign for a gabillion dollars are known for being picky, so are the upper middle range FAs, who won't come here without being overpaid if we aren't a perennial winner...

Huh? This isn't college football. They go where they are paid.

It is good to have the foundation, and some teams like the Rays and A's can do it with regularity without signing big FAs...but I'm looking in their trophy cases and not seeing any WS trophies in there...it's a strategy that works well enough to make you competitive, but not one that works without adding (elite?) missing pieces once that foundation is built...

So oh wise one.. how do the O's afford the massive contracts that would be required and keep the foundation? Problem is you want the O's to spend like the Yankees and we all know what is happening to the Yankees. Old players who are past their prime and Yankees need MLB to throw them a life line by toss Arod out of the game.

I recognize that there are like two examples of teams that didn't need a $100 million player on their roster to win the WS over the last 15+ seasons, but not one of the WS winners went into the offseason without KNOWING they had a superstar that was WORTH that kind of money...the "look at their payroll" argument only works if you mention that every team that won the WS knew they had some studs going into the season...

The O's have 3 studs we can name off the top of our heads.. Jones, Hardy and Davis. You could add Tillman who'd command $15 million if he was FA this year. Then let's not talk about Manny.. he will in the future command Arod pay when he gets to FA and the O's are mighty lucky he's 21 and not 24 going into FA.

So even the O's pass that test.

I am tired of hearing how spending money doesn't make sense...the only team that won the WS without being a top 15 payroll team was those 1997 Marlins, and they made a bunch of trades for guys that were big names (Sheffield) and had some known studs, all of which signed for less before they became those studs...some became studs with the Marlins, but most were already before they ended up in Miami...

You want to be a one pump chump. That's fine. But screw up another team, not the O's. The O's spent money in 1996 and 1997 and didn't win **** then tried to recapture it again by spending money which set the O's back 5 to 10 years. Marlins and Phillies were the two teams that I know of who won a WS under $100m payroll. Marlins ended up gutting that team doing a fire sale. Phillies won their title after beating the Rays.

I am sure some here will want to blast me for this, just as I was blasted last off season for suggesting that we couldn't repeat 2012's success without signing a #1 SP and either a big bat or a #2 SP, but guys, 2012 was a pretty good team that had a really good year, and still got knocked out of the playoffs for not having a #1 SP...most pretty good teams play pretty good baseball (see 2013), they usually don't play great baseball (2012) and are just as likely to play average or worse baseball...

Maybe you should assess your opinion of the 2012 team and the 2013 team. Starting Pitching didn't screw us.. it was the bullpen (closer) and streaking hitting.

The good side to being a pretty good team is that you have that foundation in place where it makes sense to then spend the money to put you over the top...we've had that foundation for a couple years and haven't done anything to put us over the top...the Nate McLouth's and Jason Hammel's of the world are moves made for maintaining, we need moves that are made for improving...

You mean the starting pitching staff of no names who carried that team at the end of the 2012 season when hitting was struggling?

It's one thing to fear signing a big time guy when you have no foundation, but when you do have it, that means your team won't fall apart when the big time FA hits the DL for two months...

What if your big time FA blows out his arm or injures himself for a period longer then 2 months? What if your caught holding an Albert Belle type deal/player on your 40 man roster so you actually get the insurance money to pay the contract? You are literally wasting a spot on the roster so you can break even on a deal gone bad.

I doubt many will have read all this, but I haven't been here in awhile and I want to see us take a couple risks...mainly, I want Angelos to put his money where his mouth was 5 years ago when he said he would spend when it made sense...

That's why Angelos and the O's won't sign long big deals any more which is what most FA want now.

Peace out ladies and gents...I gotta get back to work...

But it's nice to see an O's fan from the Columbus area as I live in the Columbus area myself.

[notyourbuddy]

Maybe you should assess your opinion of the 2012 team and the 2013 team. Starting Pitching didn't screw us.. it was the bullpen (closer) and streaking hitting.

Our 2013 offense was near the top of the league, our defense - elite, our bullpen was average-to-above-average. That leaves only one thing...

Our glorious starting pitching which finished near the bottom of the league in innings pitched while simultaneously finishing near the top in runs surrendered. That pretty freakin' hard to do especially with an amazing defense on the field.

It also finished first in homeruns surrendered and near the bottom in strikeouts. Their ineffectiveness put an unnecessary burden on our bullpen all season long and forced our GM to have to find not one but two everyday starting pitchers at the deadline.

Our #5 was a joke all season and our #4 next season is likely going to be Bud Norris (a fringe MLB starter) which would seem to indicate that our #5 is once again going to be a penny-pinching disaster. I'm sorry, but our starting rotation is not okay... it wasn't okay in 2012 when the bullpen absolutely carried their $ for 3/4ths of the season, it wasn't okay in 2013 when they cost us a playoff spot, and if we do nothing its likely to be deja-vu in 2014.

A shortstop hitting 34HR and driving in 150RBI's in a single season and posting yearly WAR's above 5.0 didn't improve the Orioles? The Tejada deal was a steal for the Os... unfortunately the ownership refused to support a great core of everyday players with even a league average starting rotation...instead choosing to spend each offseason twiddlin' their thumbs as the core aged away. Sounds familiar...

[BradyBunch]

Our 2013 offense was near the top of the league, our defense - elite, our bullpen was average-to-above-average. That leaves only one thing..

Our glorious starting pitching which finished near the bottom of the league in innings pitched while simultaneously finishing near the top in runs surrendered. That pretty freakin' hard to do especially with an amazing defense on the field. .

This is the difference.

When your bullpen gives up 29 (and more) homeruns more then doubling last year.. that's regression.

It also finished first in homeruns surrendered and near the bottom in strikeouts. Their ineffectiveness put an unnecessary burden on our bullpen all season long and forced our GM to have to find not one but two everyday starting pitchers at the deadline.

And nobody is saying the starting pitching was perfect, it was down from 2012 as well. And what did those trades costs us? Two struggling pitchers and one bench player. So it wasn't like it was dramatic. Rather it they needed pitchers who could fill innings. Since Miggy and Chen were having "bad" years compared to 2012.

Our #5 was a joke all season and our #4 next season is likely going to be Bud Norris (a fringe MLB starter) which would seem to indicate that our #5 is once again going to be a penny-pinching disaster. I'm sorry, but our starting rotation is not okay... it wasn't okay in 2012 when the bullpen absolutely carried their $ for 3/4ths of the season, it wasn't okay in 2013 when they cost us a playoff spot, and if we do nothing its likely to be deja-vu in 2014.

Norris is a good pitcher and not the fringe people think he is. He played for Astros. He's record is gonna be ****, but he puts up 150 ks a year, 150 ip, and ERA in the low 4s. Norris will be sub 4 ERA in 2014 and win 10 to 15 games. He'll be a strong #4.

#5 is up in the air. I think Bundy can fill that role.

So you admit 2013 was a bullpen issue? Why are you arguing then?

A shortstop hitting 34HR and driving in 150RBI's in a single season and posting yearly WAR's above 5.0 didn't improve the Orioles? The Tejada deal was a steal for the Os... unfortunately the ownership refused to support a great core of everyday players with even a league average starting rotation...instead choosing to spend each offseason twiddlin' their thumbs as the core aged away. Sounds familiar...

Not really. His production declined after that year. That was his peak year. When you sign someone to a long term deal you want a return of investment. Miggy didn't provide it. Rather his seasons with the O's and that 2004-2005 teams (even up to til 2012) revolved around players who used steroids. When Brob and Markakis (not that he ever used, or maybe he did, he hasn't had a good season in YEARS) is gone the O's will have cleared the last of that era.

[notyourbuddy]

Our bullpen in 2012 was Godly. The best in the history of the sport so of course it was going to regress. Everyone in the world knew replicating that kind of performance was going to be impossible and to go into the 2013 planning a team around the fact that it would was irresponsible and down right stupid.

In the end our 2013 bullpen ended up being average-to-above-average which ain't bad. A lot of teams with similar-to-much-worse bullpens made the playoffs. To say they are the reason why we failed to make the playoffs when it was our starting pitching that turned in a bottom of the league performance doesn't make any sense. In fact, look at the teams that finished with similar starting pitching to our own (Twins, Astros, Blue Jays, Phillies, Angels, Giants, Padres, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Mariners, and Brewers). Know what they all had in common? They all finished well out of the playoff race. Really its a miracle we got as close as we did with our SP.

And yes the Norris and Feldman were good trades in that they didn't require anything of value (except a 1st round pick I think), but what does that have to do with our starting pitching not sucking? In fact, the mere necessity of the moves re-affirms it. And in Norris' case he picked up the sucking right where his predecessor left off as his second half performance for us just wasn't very good at all. Hopefully as you pointed out he can be a good starter for us in 2014. Its certainly possible.

Not really. His production declined after that year. That was his peak year.

.311/.360/.534 + great defense = 6.3WAR

.304/.349/.515 + average defense = 5.0WAR

.330/.379/.498 + very good defense = 5.1WAR

.296/.357/.442 + average defense = 2.3WAR

His first 3 seasons were spectacular. His last was nice, but nothing special. Yeah all his numbers were PED'ed, but that doesn't mean they didn't happen. Considering he signed for 6/72$M I'd say that contract turned out splendidly since he was worth nearly that much in just the first four years alone.

[TonySoprano]

Hardy is more then likely gone in a trade this year or to FA next year. He's always stated for the last few years he'd like to play for the Dbacks.

I'd like to see the quote where he has said that.

The O's spent money in 1996 and 1997 and didn't win **** then tried to recapture it again by spending money which set the O's back 5 to 10 years.

Spending money in 1998 wasn't the problem. What happened was...

Here's the story, of a man named Davey

Who was the manager of the year

He wanted to stay here longer

His boss had other ideas

Here's the story, of a boss named Petey

Who thought he knew more than his GM

He didn't care much for Davey

So Pete got rid of him

That's the way we all became the losing bunch

The losing bunch

The losing bunch

That's the way we all became the losing bunch