New Fangraphs article "The Orioles Stars and Scrubs Problem"

[srock]

And if they are out of it at the trade deadline Hardy goes and you start seriously contemplating a sell off.

Well yeah, but that's a big if. There is a whole lot they can do now to reduce the chance we are in such a position.

[JayThomas]

OK, please help me with the idea of what 1 WAR is worth in the market.

Early in the piece it says we have 15 WAR in our top 5 guys and need 25 more WAR to be championship caliber. In other words, you need 40 WAR to be championship caliber.

If 1 WAR costs $6M, that means we need a $240M payroll to be considered championship caliber???

Yes I understand that the way around this is young cheap players that we're not paying for on the open market. But doesn't that indicate that free agents are simply absurdly overpaid? If we're going to have a $100M budget then we really have no choice but to continuously trade our top pricey assets to replentish the supply of young, cheap talent over and above what our draft/sign/develop pipeline can provide.

[srock]

OK, please help me with the idea of what 1 WAR is worth in the market.

Early in the piece it says we have 15 WAR in our top 5 guys and need 25 more WAR to be championship caliber. In other words, you need 40 WAR to be championship caliber.

If 1 WAR costs $6M, that means we need a $240M payroll to be considered championship caliber???

Yes I understand that the way around this is young cheap players that we're not paying for on the open market. But doesn't that indicate that free agents are simply absurdly overpaid? If we're going to have a $100M budget then we really have no choice but to continuously trade our top pricey assets to replentish the supply of young, cheap talent over and above what our draft/sign/develop pipeline can provide.

Yes. Free agent talent is absurdly overpaid, but that is because team controlled talent is absurdly underpaid. If one build a contending team entirely out of free agents it would likely cost about $240 million. He also says in the article the cost of 1 WAR with cost controlled players included is about $3 million.

Gotta look at the whole picture.

To replenish or not. Well, yes it makes sense to trade for youth, but its hard to do that right now when the core is good enough to contend and is not yet absurdly overpaid.

To me, this is the time to go overpay a free agent or two in order to make up for the talent pipelines failures.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I don't buy that. I say we'll get 4-6 fWAR at those 4 positions. We got about 5 fWAR from those four spots last year, and that was with Markakis having by far the worst year of his career.

Cameron doesn't say enough about the pitching in this article. Our position players had the 4th-highest fWAR in the AL last year, so I'd say "stars and scrubs" worked just fine for the everyday lineup. The pitching is where we need to have guys produce at a low cost. Simply stated, we need to get some value from Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez and Wright over the next two seasons to be contenders and stay within our budget, along with hopefully squeezing in a starter from the outside.

It's also hard to fathom why our budget should be around $95 mm in the next two years. I don't expect all the increased TV revenue to be spent in one gulp, but over a couple of years, there's no good reason why the budget shouldn't be over $110 mm, even assuming Angelos wants a piece of that money for himself.

The big problem with our star players, particularly Davis and Machado (and to a lesser extent Jones), are projected for big drop offs in production next season. I think the projection systems are too low, but even with orange-colored glasses I wouldn't expect more than 4 fWAR out of Davis and Jones and 5 fWAR out of Manny, which would still represent about a 3-4 fWAR loss off of last year.

I think we can stay put with 2B and LF - both positions should be able to give us 1-2 fWAR based on our internal options. But we are really lacking at DH. I think Pearce is a perfectly reasonable RH complement for DH to put up 0.5-1 fWAR in part time, but we really need the LH complement to give us the additional 1.5-2 fWAR. Urrutia has not shown enough to be counted on as that guy yet. If we do get that DH piece, I think our position players will be about as good as they were last year, and then it comes down to pitching.

[scOtt]

The team needs more help then what an upgrade from .5 to 2.0 WAR will give them. I would rather roll with what we have then give up a pick and sign one of those guys to a 3-4 year deal.

I've said as much before. But still would not be unhappy if we signed KM. Want nothing to do with Cruz.

[scOtt]

This is where the lack of talent pipeline causes DD to search for bargain bin treasures. If Bundy never blew out his arm, it would be viable possibility that he could have been a 4 WAR guy in 2014 making essentially league minimum. Much easier to get 15 WAR from remaining roster slots if have young, cheap, and good talent.

:sigh: Ain't that the truth!

[scOtt]

I don't buy that. I say we'll get 4-6 fWAR at those 4 positions. We got about 5 fWAR from those four spots last year, and that was with Markakis having by far the worst year of his career.

Cameron doesn't say enough about the pitching in this article. Our position players had the 4th-highest fWAR in the AL last year, so I'd say "stars and scrubs" worked just fine for the everyday lineup. The pitching is where we need to have guys produce at a low cost. Simply stated, we need to get some value from Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez and Wright over the next two seasons to be contenders and stay within our budget, along with hopefully squeezing in a starter from the outside.

It's also hard to fathom why our budget should be around $95 mm in the next two years. I don't expect all the increased TV revenue to be spent in one gulp, but over a couple of years, there's no good reason why the budget shouldn't be over $110 mm, even assuming Angelos wants a piece of that money for himself.

We'll probably (still, again) have to be 110 just with arb raises and lateral moves.

We need an added boost from PA.

[Frobby]

Early in the piece it says we have 15 WAR in our top 5 guys and need 25 more WAR to be championship caliber. In other words, you need 40 WAR to be championship caliber.

By the way, the article doesn't say "championship caliber," it says "legitimate contender." A 40 WAR team should win about 88 games (48 wins is considered the "baseline" for a team composed of replacement-level players). The Red Sox last year were a 58 WAR team; the Tigers were a 56 WAR team; the Orioles were a 38 WAR team. Obviously, any team that makes the playoffs could win the championship, but 40 WAR is actually skating on pretty thin ice in terms of even making the playoffs, let alone winning them.

[Hallas]

I would say that we should hope for better than 15 WAR out of our top 5. My back-of-napkin estimate is closer to 20 WAR. I take the higher number because if any of our top 5 get injured or fail to perform we will definitely not make the playoffs. We also should get about 4-7 WAR out of our top 3 starting pitchers. Conservatively guessing, that leaves us with about 22 WAR from our top 8 players, and leaves us with about 18-20 wins to get from the other 17 players. While this isn't all that promising, it is better than us getting 25 WAR from 20 spots.

One possible source for extra wins is getting a lot of AAAA players and hoping/praying that more of our them are going to be better than replacement level. Position players 12-the end were worth -3.1 WAR. Pitchers from 12-the end were worth 0.5 WAR. I know it's hard to have a collection of positive from the bottom of your roster, but we have to hope they can do better than that. Having actual AAAA depth helps with that. With good fortune, we might be able to recover a win or maybe 2 by replacing terrible with slightly less than terrible.

Beyond that, I don't know what we can do to get the other 18 or so wins we need, short of signing new players. But new players are getting more and more expensive.

[wildcard]

To start with the guy can't count. He says a contender needs a 40 WAR.

Let's take his numbers and count.

5 Manny

4 Wieters/ Clevenger

3 Jones

3 Hardy

3 Davis

That's 18

1 Nick

1 Flaherty

That's 20

3 Tillman

2 Chen

2 Norris

2 Gonzo

2 Gausman

Add 11; now at 31

3 pen

That 34

2.4 for Lough

That's 36.4

Now add

4 Burnett

That 40.4 which is over his 40 to contend

1.3 Rodney

That's 41.7

So if the O's can continue on the path they are on and sign Burnett and Rodney they are contenders according to this guy. No offensive signing needed.

[scOtt]

To start with the guy can't count. He says a contender needs a 40 WAR.

Let's take his numbers and count.

5 Manny

4 Wieters/ Clevenger

3 Jones

3 Hardy

3 Davis

That's 18

1 Nick

1 Flaherty

That's 20

3 Tillman

2 Chen

2 Norris

2 Gonzo

2 Gausman

Add 11; now at 31

3 pen

That 34

2.4 for Lough

That's 36.4

Now add

4 Burnett

That 40.4 which is over his 40 to contend

1.3 Rodney

That's 41.7

So if the O's can continue on the path they are on and sign Burnett and Rodney they are contenders according to this guy. No offensive signing needed.

Would just be gravy. And doable on the budget imo.

e: Thinking a bit, not it prolly isn't doable. I'm thinking Burnett/Rodney is 18+. Pretty much our limit.

[mdbdotcom]

Would just be gravy. And doable on the budget imo.

If you don't change your avatar soon, you might have to change your screen name to scoTT.

[NewMarketSean]

This is what struck me:

There?s some validity to taking a lot of crap, throwing it against a wall, and seeing what sticks, but that?s a better plan for a team that is trying to build for the future than a team that has five guys who would fit nicely on the best team in baseball.

After 14 miserable years of changing parts, we finally have 5 good players under team control for a bargain.

So what are we going to do to fill out the roster and make a run?

Nothing, except sign a BP arm and trade for a 4th OF while writing off the posting system for international FA's and crying poor even after increasing attendance and blockbuster TV deals.

[scOtt]

If you don't change your avatar soon, you might have to change your screen name to scoTT.

I'm getting too much rep having it up.

[UMDTerrapins]

A value option doe DH that caught my eye is Scott Van Slyke. Not sure if we match up well with the Dodgers, but he's a solid contact/high OBP guy who's completely blocked, and can play 1B/OF. I'd rather approach our DH/LF situation with the healthiest/most productive combination from a group like Reimold/Urrutia/Lough/VanSlyke than lose a pick and/or give up too much in trade for an established mediocre guy. Thoughts?

(disclaimer - I haven't vetted this idea very much)