Does Trout Deal Set The Market for Machado? (Update: 6/$144.5M)

[Can_of_corn]

I was not talking about Cano. Though doing something for two years or doing something for ten are two different scenarios.

Atomic was, but I can't quote him because I have him on /ignore.

[El Gordo]

If he has a year with the glove like he did in 2012, and plays 160 games in Center it could happen.

Of course it is harder for him to track balls now with that 30 inch neck.

Trout's game is based on his speed, at least on the bases and in the OF. That will decline over the next 4 years. I doubt his defense will or base running will improve much. Manny on the other hand relies more on his reflexes, arm, and great hands . They should do him well for more than the next 4 years. So while I could see Manny having a better year with the glove then last year, I don't see Trout improving much. Trout will be worth more than Manny in terms of WAR, but not by a stratosphere and barring injury, Manny can expect 20M +, IMO.

[sneaky flute]

Defensive metrics are very unreliable and if Machado ends up being one-dimensional, his value will plummet.

[DrungoHazewood]

And Trout was rated below replacement level defensively last year. Sometimes you have to look past the WAR stat and use common sense.

No he wasn't. There is no such thing as "below replacement level defensively." Replacement level is in reference to an overall metric combining all facets of a player's game.

By some metrics he was a slightly below average defensive center fielder last year. But even that has far more value than an above-average player at most other positions.

I would say if Manny hits well he will be more valuable than Trout. Manny will play third or Short. Much harder to find good hitting players in those positions.

Last year Manny was ahead of Trout on defense by about 30 runs, but Trout was ahead of Manny on offense by about 70 runs. But I doubt those defensive metrics are truly representative of their talent levels going forward, Trout will probably close the gap a bit. In any case Manny will have to significantly step up his hitting to approach Trout.

[Guest]

Manny not in the same league with Trout.

[DrungoHazewood]

Defensive metrics are very unreliable and if Machado ends up being one-dimensional, his value will plummet.

Depends on which dimension you're talking about.

[DrungoHazewood]

Manny not in the same league with Trout.

Wait... which one got traded?!

[sneaky flute]

Depends on which dimension you're talking about.

If he offers nothing beyond defense then I have a hard time imagining that he'll command 20 million+.

[skanar]

Compared to most-likely projections, this contract is probably a bit of an underpayment. But the problem is, there are so few comparable players that the projection uncertainty is high.

Also, signing a big contract like this, especially pre-arb, involves the transfer of injury risk from the player to the team. Prior to this deal, if Trout were to suffer some (god forbid) horrific career-ending or career-altering injury, he's the financial loser. Now, it's the Angels. I think this effect has to restrict the financial value of the very biggest contracts the most, though insurance of course mitigates some of this risk.

[Can_of_corn]

Compared to most-likely projections, this contract is probably a bit of an underpayment. But the problem is, there are so few comparable players that the projection uncertainty is high.

Also, signing a big contract like this, especially pre-arb, involves the transfer of injury risk from the player to the team. Prior to this deal, if Trout were to suffer some (god forbid) horrific career-ending or career-altering injury, he's the financial loser. Now, it's the Angels. I think this effect has to restrict the financial value of the very biggest contracts the most, though insurance of course mitigates some of this risk.

Of course the Angels also have to pay for the insurance. Pretty sure that is going to be a significant premium(s).

[DrungoHazewood]

If he offers nothing beyond defense then I have a hard time imagining that he'll command 20 million+.

What do you mean by "nothing but defense"? Do you mean Jose Molina, OPSing .600 with negative baserunning value, but with 20-30 runs on defense? Then I'd agree. But if he really establishes himself as a +20-30 run third baseman with average offense and baserunning he would be worth $20M+ a year on the open market.

[DrungoHazewood]

...though insurance of course mitigates some of this risk.

I think it's fairly well established that insurance only kicks in for certain cases, and is quite expensive. You can't just insure your way out of risk.

[El Gordo]

Have they paid anyone at 20 in arbitration yet? And is it strictly on WAR? If so, which version?

In 2008 after a 3.1 WAR year Ryan Howard won 10 Million in arb. 11 M in todays dollars. So what do you think Trout would be awarded next year after three 10 WAR seasons? And that would just be for his first year..

[sneaky flute]

What do you mean by "nothing but defense"? Do you mean Jose Molina, OPSing .600 with negative baserunning value, but with 20-30 runs on defense? Then I'd agree. But if he really establishes himself as a +20-30 run third baseman with average offense and baserunning he would be worth $20M+ a year on the open market.

I'm not saying Machado will suck. My statement just assumes that he's a poor base runner and yields below-average offense in the future. Is he even known for running the bases?

[weams]

In 2008 after a 3.1 WAR tear Ryan Howard won 10 Million in arb. 11 M in todays dollars. So what do you think Trout would be awarded next year after three 10 WAR seasons? And that would just be for his first year..

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